Hide table of contents

I've not yet seen a collection, in one place, of the various summaries, responses, and rebuttals around AI timelines via biological anchors. In the spirit of “EAs should post more summaries and collections”, I attempt to make said collection here.

I've bolded and put stars around what I consider to be core reading (i.e., what I'd suggest you read first), based primarily on concision but also based on importance, according to me. Note that this collection is not ordered chronologically.

Note also: I've edited this collection to include the posts highlighted in the comments.

Ajeya Cotra

Rohin Shah

Holden Karnofsky

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Scott Alexander

Daniel Kokotajlo

Forecasting Community


Rose Hadshar and the Forecasting Research Institute





Sorted by Click to highlight new comments since:

Thanks, this seems like a useful collection to have made!

Here are some additional places where Ajeya provides a somewhat more conversational/accessible overview or discussion of her report:

Also this recent FLI podcast interview with Ajeya: Ajeya Cotra on Forecasting Transformative Artificial Intelligence

There is also an Epoch summary of it!


Thanks for compiling this list! I humbly suggest that Fun With +12 OOMs be added in under my name, since it's the closest to a public rebuttal I've written to Ajeya's report.

Curated and popular this week
Relevant opportunities