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The US Executive vs Supreme Court Deportations Clash
Sentinel forecasters in aggregate assess as “83% true” (65% to 100%) the statement that the Trump administration has disobeyed the Supreme Court so far. On the one hand, the Trump administration has done nothing to “facilitate” bringing Abrego García back to the US, and this White House’s tweet shown below clearly indicates that it won’t try to; on the other hand, it could yet still do so when the current news cycle subsides. On April 17th, forecasters estimated a 66% chance (50% to ~100%) that Abrego García will not be brought back to the US within the next 60 days (by June 17).
Data on the number of deportations in past administrations are available but can be difficult to compare between administrations; some up-to-date sources include refusals at the border due to Covid (“Title 42 expulsions”) under Biden, but other data have been discontinued. Perhaps a good comparison might be to the years 2012-2015, Obama’s second term, which saw a total of about 1.5M immigrants removed over all four years. The Trump administration has reportedly set a goal of removing 1M people in its first year. As of April 19, 3.6 months into Trump’s second term, the administration has deported 0.11M people. Removing 1M people by the end of 2025 would require a removal rate that is almost four times higher than the rate to date.
Our forecasters estimate a 32% (range, 15% to 70%) probability that the Trump administration will deport over 1M immigrants this calendar year. The administration has the intent, but obstacles include the courts, logistics, incompetence, and possible protection in sanctuary cities, although protection of immigrants by cities could lead to standoffs between local and federal officials. ICE’s recently granted access to IRS data on undocumented immigrants would likely make deportations easier. Paradoxically, those who pay taxes and have tried to work within the system are likely to be at greatest risk of deportation. DOGE personnel are also reportedly constructing a database linking Department of Homeland Security, Social Security Administration and IRS data on undocumented immigrants together, to facilitate deportations. If the Trump administration does deport at least 1M immigrants this year, then we think there will likely be a false positive rate of 0.3% to 5% regarding people mistakenly deported.
Our forecasters estimate a 14% (range, 10% to 25%) probability that Trump will invoke the Insurrection Act by July 1st, and a 22% (12% to 50%) probability that he will do so by the end of 2025. They were previously much higher, but were moved down by this CNN article reporting that for now the Pentagon and DHS recommend against invoking the Act.
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