Metaculus Launches Chinese AI Chips Tournament, Supporting Institute for AI Policy and Strategy Research

Metaculus’s Chinese AI Chips Tournament is live: Forecast and support research by the Institute for AI Policy and Strategy (IAPS), a think tank that works to reduce risks from the development and deployment of frontier AI systems.

Better understanding China’s ability to produce its own AI chips over the coming years will help shed light on key issues for AI governance, such as:

• How will Chinese AI systems compare to systems developed by frontrunner labs like OpenAI?
• Will we see major, state-sanctioned AI chip smuggling operations?

Learn more about the tournament and start forecasting on these and other questions: 

• How much of Nvidia's quarterly 2024 revenue will come from the Chinese market?
• Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?
• Will a Chinese firm market an EUV photolithography machine before 2033?
   

Read a primer on Chinese AI chips by IAPS researcher Erich Grunewald and independent researcher Chris Phenicie.