Effective Altruism Forum
Topics
EA Forum

Hide table of contents

Long-range forecasting

EditHistory
Discussion7
EditHistory
Discussion7
Random Topic
Contributors
2MichaelA🔸
1Leo
-2Pablo
Parent Topic: Forecasting
You are viewing revision 1.9.0, last edited by Pablo

Posts tagged Long-range forecasting

Relevance
204
Scoring forecasts from the 2016 “Expert Survey on Progress in AI”
PatrickL
· · · 10m read
21
2
21
2
173
A personal take on longtermist AI governance
lukeprog
· · 8m read
7
2
7
2
159
Survey on AI existential risk scenarios
Sam Clarke
· · 8m read
11
2
11
2
141
A practical guide to long-term planning – and suggestions for longtermism
weeatquince🔸
· · 25m read
13
2
13
2
125
Data on forecasting accuracy across different time horizons and levels of forecaster experience
Charles Dillon 🔸
· · 27m read
7
8
7
8
102
Formalising the "Washing Out Hypothesis"
dwebb
· · 15m read
27
2
27
2
85
Takeaways from the Metaculus AI Progress Tournament
Javier Prieto🔸
· · 4m read
6
1
6
1
79
The Epistemic Challenge to Longtermism (Tarsney, 2020)
MichaelA🔸
· · 2m read
27
8
27
8
64
Future technological progress does NOT correlate with methods that involve less suffering
Jim Buhler
· · 4m read
12
1
12
1
64
[Linkpost] Dan Luu: Futurist prediction methods and accuracy
Linch
· · 5m read
7
2
7
2
62
Superforecasting in a nutshell
lukeprog
· · 3m read
4
3
4
3
57
Predicting Open Phil Grants
Charles Dillon 🔸
· · 2m read
9
2
9
2
48
Superforecasting Long-Term Risks and Climate Change
LuisEUrtubey
· · 3m read
0
1
0
1
48
Nuclear war tail risk has been exaggerated?
Vasco Grilo🔸
· · 33m read
24
2
24
2
43
Overview of Rethink Priorities’ work on risks from nuclear weapons
MichaelA🔸
· · 4m read
1
2
1
2