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Tentative Reasons You Might Be Underrating Having Kids

I believe Abby's take on this, but I don't think it's a misrepresentation of Caplan's position (though maybe an unnuanced one), unless we're really just coming down on the meaning of "significant amount." I would say  saving 10% of parenting time is "a significant amount."

I think those low hanging fruits, if they are there at all, are probably there for 8-15 year olds, give or take. 

Ah, when you said 'significant amount' I assumed you meant a lot more. 10% of the total does not seem like much to me.
Tentative Reasons You Might Be Underrating Having Kids

We clearly agree on your first point (and sorry, I don't mean to single your comment out too much as a foil, it just came to mind as a recent example of the discourse).

The second strongest reason is if you think childrearing is actually the most cost-effective thing for you to do on the margin because of the effects of the children themselves

I thought about making some back of the envelope EV calculations to this point but it sort of lives or dies on certain assumptions and I didn't want to make it just an argument about those. But it's conceivable to me t... (read more)

My guess is that having children is far less cost-effective at getting more EAs than university community building, because of far greater reach with the same time and resources from the latter, and not far worse individual counterfactuals. To elaborate on the last point, it's true that someone who's never born would not become an EA anyway, but if someone isn't interested in EA by the time they leave university, it's not overwhelmingly likely that if they'd have become an EA through university community building, then they would have gotten into EA eventually anyway (and that the gap in time to becoming an EA is small enough in expectation).
A potentially relevant crux here is what you think the discount rate is for EA work (like how much do you value work or donations now vs one year later), from intuition, theory or empiricism [] . My impression is that some people who look at this think it is >10% (at least in the longtermism and meta spaces).
A new media outlet focused in part on philanthropy

FYI anything you write to Teddy could end up in an article. I suggest you read some of his pieces before engaging. I worry this piece makes him sound more EA than he is, although of course he could be pivoting. 

5Aaron Gertler5mo
You should expect to see the announcement early next week!
6Aaron Gertler7mo
We wound up with ~35 submissions per judge. Accounting for two rounds of judging (preliminary and "semifinal") plus discussion over any contentious choices, I expect to announce winners in mid-December.