[Open Thread] What virtual events are you hosting that you'd like to open to the EA Forum-reading public?

Intro to Forecasting (EA San Francisco + Stanford EA discussion event)

cross-posted from Facebook. (I will check both this thread and the FB event for comments)

Date: 2020/04/29

Time: 19:00-21:00 (PDT)

Location: Zoom videoconferencing (recommend web portal)

You might have heard of forecasting by now. Many of the cool kids* are doing it, using fancy terms like "brier score," "metaculus", "log-odds", "calibration" and "modeling." You might have heard of superforecasters: savvy amateurs who make robustly better forecasts on geopolitical events than trained analysts at the CIA. What you might not have learned is that these skills are eminently trainable: In the original Good Judgement Project, researchers have found that a short 1-hour training course can robustly improve accuracy over the course of a year!

Next Wednesday, EA SF is collaborating with Stanford Effective Altruism to host an introductory event on forecasting. Together, we will practice (super)forecasting techniques: the skills and ways of thinking that allowed savvy amateurs to make better forecasts on geopolitical events than trained analysts at the CIA.

Background
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Good_Judgment_Project
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superforecasting
http://www.academia.edu/download/37711009/2015_-_superforecasters.pdf
https://aiimpacts.org/evidence-on-good-forecasting-practices-from-the-good-judgment-project-an-accompanying-blog-post/

Here are some of the topics we'll try to cover and practice in small groups, time permitting:

Base Rates: Outside View vs. Inside View
Credence References: Thinking in Credible Intervals
Controlling for Scope: Consider the probability distribution across different outcomes than posed by the question, such as longer/shorter timeframes
Analytics: Fermizing, assessing signal vs. noise. Controlling for biases and fallacies
Comment: Making explicit rationales to prevent hindsight bias and share information
Compare: Explain your reasoning, benefit from viewpoint diversity, and accelerate learning
Update: Revise your forecast as new information comes in or you change your view

Structure: We'll meet together briefly to go over the details and then split into smaller groups with 3-6 group members each, including a group leader. Each group will be given a discussion sheet that they can copy and group leaders will be given an answer key.

We'll be using Zoom as our platform as that allows the most seamless split into smaller groups. For security reasons, we recommend using the Zoom Web portal over the Mac App.

We expect many of the attendees to be new to forecasting, but also several people who're very experienced forecasters and/or otherwise quite plugged in into the current state-of-the-art of forecasting. Depending on who shows up, it might also make sense to have a Q&A in addition to the small group discussions.

As this is a virtual event, all are welcome. However, we only have limited small group leader capacity, so in the (very fortunate!) world where many more people show up than we expect, groups may be asked to nominate their own group leaders instead of having an appointed one with prior experience managing EA discussions.

Hope to see you there!

*and some of the uncool kids

Covid-19 Mistakes and How We Can Do Better (EA SF event)

FB event here

NOTE: Because David is based in Israel, we'll start our event on 11AM Sunday rather than our usual Wednesday meeting time.

What and how did we get things in the pandemic predictably wrong? More than that, what lessons can we learn that generalizes to future biosecurity and pandemic prevention/relief efforts?

David Manheim, an EA biosecurity and policy researcher, superforecaster, and Future of Humanity contract researcher, discussed mistakes he and others have made in covid-19 forecasting.

This will be EA: San Francisco's fourth speaker event.

Due to security issues with Zoom App, we *strongly* recommend Zoom web client if you have security concerns.

As this will be online, I see little reason to restrict this to people living within the physical Bay Area. Feel free to invite friends from all over the world (in a compatible time zone) if they wish to attend.

Tentative schedule (PDT; UTC -7:00):
Talk: 11:00-11:30 AM (Youtube Live)
Q&A: 11:30-12:10 (Zoom)
Mingling: 12:10-

(Details of exact schedule TBD)

There is a calendar of events here.

Does anyone know how I can add my event "Option Value in Effective Altruism: Worldwide Online Meetup" (April 13, 16:00 UTC) to this calendar?

Option Value in Effective Altruism: Worldwide Online Meetup

April 13, at 16:00 UTC

https://www.facebook.com/events/574583239932514

What's Up With the Windfall Clause? (online EA SF event)

cross-posted from Facebook. (I will check both this thread and the FB event for comments)

Date: 2020/04/08

Time: 19:00-21:00 (PDT)

How can we ensure that the gains from Transformative AI collectively benefit humanity, rather than just the lucky few? How can we incentivize innovation in AI in a way that's broadly positive for humanity? Other than alignment, what are distributive issues with the status quo in AI profits? What are practical issues with different distributive mechanisms?

In this talk, Cullen O'Keefe, Research Scientist at OpenAI and Research Affiliate at FHI, will argue for the "windfall clause": in short, that companies should donate excess windfall profits from Transformative AI for the common good.

You may be interested in reading his paper summarizing the core ideas [1], or his AMA on the EA Forum [2].

This will be EA: San Francisco's inaugural online event (and only our second general event).

We're still looking into different technological options for the best way to host this talk, but please have the Zoom App downloaded and create a Zoom account.

As this will be online, I see little reason to restrict this to people living within the physical Bay Area. Feel free to invite friends from all over the world (in a compatible time zone) if they wish to attend.

Tentative schedule:
Talk: 7:00-7:25
Q&A: 7:25-8:10
Structured Mingling: 8:10-9:00.
(Details of exact schedule TBD)

For the sake of everyone's mental health, we are banning all discussions of The Disease Which Must Not Be Named.

[1] https://arxiv.org/pdf/1912.11595.pdf
[2] https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/9cx8TrLEooaw49cAr/i-m-cullen-o-keefe-a-policy-researcher-at-openai-ama

cross-posted from Facebook, which I will likely be checking much more regularly.

Forecasting 102 (EA SF discussion event)

Our previous forecasting workshop in April was a smashing success! Many people* have said it was helpful, insightful, fun etc. Can we repeat our success by having another great forecasting workshop? Only time (and a sufficiently large sample size) can tell!

Next Wednesday, EA SF is collaborating with Stanford Effective Altruism to host another event on forecasting. Together, we will practice forecasting techniques: the skills and ways of thinking that allow us to quantify our uncertainties and be slightly less confused about the future.

Some Background

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Good_Judgment_Project

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superforecasting

http://www.academia.edu/download/37711009/2015_-_superforecasters.pdf

https://aiimpacts.org/evidence-on-good-forecasting-practices-from-the-good-judgment-project-an-accompanying-blog-post/

Here are some of the tentative topics we'll try to cover and practice in small groups, time permitting:

Question selection: How do we know what questions are the right ones to ask?

Question operationalization: How do we ask the right questions in the right way?

Intuition pumps & elicitation: How do we understand our intuitions in a way that’s accessible to our conscious thinking?

Information sources & internet research: How do we efficiently gather information in a time-constrained manner?

Distributional forecasting: How do we give probabilities on a range of outcomes, not just a single number for a distribution?

Technical tools: What tools are useful in aiding our forecasting?

As well as some general practice on calibration and making quantified predictions of the future!

Structure: We'll meet together briefly to go over the details and then split into smaller groups with 3-6 group members each, including a group leader. Each group will be given a discussion sheet that they can copy and group leaders will be given an answer key.

We'll be using Zoom as our platform as that allows the most seamless split into smaller groups. For people with security concerns, we recommend using the Zoom Web portal over the Mac/Windows App (I am uncertain of the quality of the app on Linuxes).

The assumed background is people with some passing familiarity with forecasting (eg, have attended a prior forecasting workshop by EA San Francisco or others, have done some predictions on metaculus, or have otherwise read Superforecasting), with some members having significantly more experience. However everybody’s welcome! If you have no prior exposure to forecasting, I recommend reading the AI impacts summary of Superforecasting[1] and doing some Open Phil calibration exercises[2]. Depending on who shows up, it might also make sense to have a Q&A in addition to the small group discussions.

As this is a virtual event, all are welcome. However, we only have limited small group leader capacity, so in the (very fortunate!) world where many more people show up than we expect, groups may be asked to nominate their own group leaders instead of having an appointed one with prior experience managing EA discussions.

Hope to see you there!

*n>=1, source unverified

[1] https://aiimpacts.org/evidence-on-good-forecasting-practices-from-the-good-judgment-project-an-accompanying-blog-post/

[2] https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/new-web-app-calibration-training