Epistemic status: Speculation from two decently informed advocates armed with anecdata.
Note on process: After having some version of this conversation several times and saying, “we should probably write about this publicly,” we took the less heroic route: we recorded one of our conversations, fed the transcript into an LLM, and then substantially revised the structure, substance, and framing ourselves. We will not be sharing the transcript, as it is in...
TLDR: Take the population ethics quiz here: https://mdickens.me/pop-ethics/
Population ethics is an oft-overlooked subfield within ethics. Many people hold views that they don't realize contradict each other, or that have strange implications that they wouldn't endorse if they thought about it more.
Not just that—population ethics is a BIG DEAL. A lot of ethical decisions hinge on how you think about changes in future populations....
Headline finding: I audited 17 AI Safety Talent programmes. Zero of 17 have published any comparison group, rejected-applicant follow-up, matched control or randomisation. Not one. Every programme that mentions a counterfactual does it by asking participants to self-report.
Background
At least $70 million...
r/badmathematics have already looked at it.
"Being very generous, I think their attempt is to invoke this result of Chaitin to basically say "if the universe was a simulation, then there would be a formal system that described how the universe worked. By Chaitin, there's some 'complexity bound' for which statements beyond this bound are undecidable. But, these statements have physical meaning so we could theoretically construct the statement's analog in our universe, and then the simulation would have to be able to decide these undecidable statements."
What they don't explain is:
They also get into some more bad mathematics (maybe bad philosophy?) by appealing to Penrose-Lucas to claim that "human cognition surpasses formal computation," but I don't think this is anywhere near a universally accepted stance."