The Unjournal is running a Fermi (aka BOTEC) modeling hack/workshop on the cost of producing cultivated meat. This follows our researcher/practitioner workshop and PQ work generating an initial public Monte Carlo model/calculator, public discussion, and belief elicitation and synthesis (preliminary version here). A rough plan for the hack is sketched here. Looking for feedback and suggestions on this.
This could also serve as a model for future workshops in other contexts. It should also offer some insight into the reliability of these modeling approaches in general.
I've often wondered: these models seem to often depend on a lot of structural and definitional assumptions. How sensitive are they to reasonable initial choices? To what extent would independent groups engaging in these BOTECs tend to converge?
We're looking for a modeling co-coordinator and co-facilitator as a one-off role, but it may lead to more such work depending on success and funding. You'd likely be work with David Reinstein, David Manheim, and workshop participants in prepping, running, and following this up. We can offer only modest compensation (perhaps up to $1,000 delivered as a Tremendous reward for at least 20 hours of work).
The workshop aims to do a combination of:
- Provide a clearly-explained workspace, with common estimands and parameter definitions, aligning understanding, terminology, etc.
- Further consolidate and refine sourced beliefs and evidence, identifying remaining uncertainty and high-value next steps
- Enable and encourage workshop participants (at least a few individuals or groups) to model this independently; considering convergence, reliability, and modeling degrees of freedom. (And providing insights for future modeling approaches and workshops in general).
- Build, improve, and communicate a reasoning-transparent "consensus model"
If you're the co-coordinator you could support us in planning and preparing for the hack, coordinating and running it, and following up and analyzing and communicating the results. It could be tied to a formal/academic research project if it makes sense for you. You should have some experience or familiarity with this sort of modeling (or forecasting, cost-effectiveness analysis, or techno-economic analysis.) Nice to also have experience coordinating collaborative workshops, familiarity with cultivated meat production, and building tools and sites with AI coding tools.
If interested, please email [email protected] as soon as you can (ideally before 24 September 2026) to express your interest and share your CV/work samples/experience.
Also looking for referrals/nominations. And feel free to ask questions or 'apply in the comments' if you want to do this publicly.
