5f:I[392826,["$4","$5","$6","$7","$8","$9","$a","$b","$c","$d","$e","$f","$23","$24"],"default"] 60:I[836637,["$4","$5","$6","$7","$8","$9","$a","$b","$c","$d","$e","$f","$23","$24"],"default"] 61:T4f3,

I think you should write about yourself, your job, and your giving.

Now, I write web content for 80,000 Hours. Previously:

2022-2025: I worked in communications at Coefficient Giving.
2019-2021: I worked at CEA, on the Forum and other projects.
2016-18: Alongside non-EA gigs, I did piecemeal ops work for CEA and CFAR.
2014-15: I founded and ran Yale's student EA group.

Outside of EA, I play Magic: the Gathering on a semi-professional level and donate most of my winnings to charity (this amounts to ~$60K so far).

Outside of EA, I've been a tutor, a freelance writer, a tech support agent, and (very briefly) a music journalist. I blog, and keep a public list of my donations, at aarongertler.com.

62:T4f3,

I ran the Forum for three years.

I think you should write about yourself, your job, and your giving.

Now, I write web content for 80,000 Hours. Previously:

2022-2025: I worked in communications at Coefficient Giving.
2019-2021: I worked at CEA, on the Forum and other projects.
2016-18: Alongside non-EA gigs, I did piecemeal ops work for CEA and CFAR.
2014-15: I founded and ran Yale's student EA group.

Outside of EA, I play Magic: the Gathering on a semi-professional level and donate most of my winnings to charity (this amounts to ~$60K so far).

Outside of EA, I've been a tutor, a freelance writer, a tech support agent, and (very briefly) a music journalist. I blog, and keep a public list of my donations, at aarongertler.com.

63:T145f,

I run Sentinel, a team that seeks to anticipate and respond to large-scale risks. You can read our weekly minutes here. I like to spend my time acquiring deeper models of the world, and generally becoming more formidable. I'm also a fairly good forecaster: I started out on predicting on Good Judgment Open and CSET-Foretell, but now do most of my forecasting through Samotsvety, of which Scott Alexander writes:

Enter Samotsvety Forecasts. This is a team of some of the best superforecasters in the world. They won the CSET-Foretell forecasting competition by an absolutely obscene margin, “around twice as good as the next-best team in terms of the relative Brier score”. If the point of forecasting tournaments is to figure out who you can trust, the science has spoken, and the answer is “these guys”.

I used to post prolifically on the EA Forum, but nowadays, I post my research and thoughts at nunosempere.com / nunosempere.com/blog rather than on this forum, because:

I disagree with the EA Forum's moderation policy—they've banned a few disagreeable people whom I like, and I think they're generally a bit too censorious for my liking.
The Forum website has become more annoying to me over time: more cluttered and more pushy in terms of curated and pinned posts (I've partially mitigated this by writing my own minimalistic frontend)
The above two issues have made me take notice that the EA Forum is beyond my control, and it feels like a dumb move to host my research in a platform that has goals different from my own.

But a good fraction of my past research is still available here on the EA Forum. I'm particularly fond of my series on Estimating Value.

My career has been as follows:

Before Sentinel, I set up my own niche consultancy, Shapley Maximizers. This was very profitable, and I used the profits to bootstrap Sentinel. I am winding this down, but if you have need of estimation services for big decisions, you can still reach out.
I used to do research around longtermism, forecasting and quantification, as well as some programming, at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI). At QURI, I programmed Metaforecast.org, a search tool which aggregates predictions from many different platforms—a more up to date alternative might be adj.news. I spent some time in the Bahamas as part of the FTX EA Fellowship, and did a bunch of work for the FTX Foundation, which then went to waste when it evaporated.
I write a Forecasting Newsletter which gathered a few thousand subscribers; I previously abandoned but have recently restarted it. I used to really enjoy winning bets against people too confident in their beliefs, but I try to do this in structured prediction markets, because betting against normal people started to feel like taking candy from a baby.
Previously, I was a Future of Humanity Institute 2020 Summer Research Fellow, and then worked on a grant from the Long Term Future Fund to do "independent research on forecasting and optimal paths to improve the long-term."
Before that, I studied Maths and Philosophy, dropped out in exasperation at the inefficiency, picked up some development economics; helped implement the European Summer Program on Rationality during 2017, 2018 2019, 2020 and 2022; worked as a contractor for various forecasting and programming projects; volunteered for various Effective Altruism organizations, and carried out many independent research projects. In a past life, I also wrote a popular Spanish literature blog, and remain keenly interested in Spanish poetry.

You can share feedback anonymously with me here.

Note: You can sign up for all my posts here: <https://nunosempere.com/.newsletter/>, or subscribe to my posts' RSS here: <https://nunosempere.com/blog/index.rss>

64:T895,

Currently exploring new projects. I'm a generalist builder with startup, product and ops experience. I've done a bit of EA community building and am keen to improve talent pipelines for people working on the most important problems. (A little on my journey to EA)

Some posts I've written and particularly like:

Advice I frequently give:

When in doubt, apply*
What Ops in EA is like
If you're running a retreat, nail the vibes and venue
Add randomness to your conferences

65:T4f3,

I ran the Forum for three years.

I think you should write about yourself, your job, and your giving.

Now, I write web content for 80,000 Hours. Previously:

2022-2025: I worked in communications at Coefficient Giving.
2019-2021: I worked at CEA, on the Forum and other projects.
2016-18: Alongside non-EA gigs, I did piecemeal ops work for CEA and CFAR.
2014-15: I founded and ran Yale's student EA group.

Outside of EA, I play Magic: the Gathering on a semi-professional level and donate most of my winnings to charity (this amounts to ~$60K so far).

Outside of EA, I've been a tutor, a freelance writer, a tech support agent, and (very briefly) a music journalist. I blog, and keep a public list of my donations, at aarongertler.com.

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1. Key Takeaways

The case for Wikipedia editing, in a nutshell: Wikipedia articles are widely read and trusted, there is plenty of low-hanging fruit for improvement, and editing Wikipedia has low barriers to entry and is relatively low-effort. Consequently, improving a Wikipedia article may benefit the reasoning and actions of its thousands, and often millions, of readers. Moreover, since Wikipedia is a global public good, improvements to Wikipedia are likel..."},"group":null,"coauthors":[{"_id":"BkbwT5TzSj4aRxJMN","slug":"pablo_stafforini","karma":11328,"deleted":false,"jobTitle":"AI Enablement Manager","username":"Pablo_Stafforini","createdAt":"2014-08-06T01:08:45.972+00:00","postCount":46,"displayName":"Pablo","commentCount":1243,"organization":"Epoch AI","biographyHtml":"
I am AI Enablement Manager at Epoch AI.
After living nomadically for many years, I recently moved back to my native Buenos Aires. Feel free to get in touch if you are visiting BA and would like to grab a coffee or need a place to stay.
Every post, comment, or wiki edit I authored is hereby licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
","profileImageId":"Profile/o8mnlsal9pr4tzjw4kys"}],"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"z8qFsGt5iXyZiLbjN","core":true,"name":"Opportunities to take action","slug":"opportunities-to-take-action","tagRel":{"_id":"6u94Gr8RDxorTbW5B","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":2705,"description":"
The EA Forum is mostly about discussing ideas. But ultimately, the reason we discuss those ideas is to help us take actions that improve the world.
Apply the opportunities to take action topic to posts that offer readers a way to get involved..."},{"_id":"eRwcqwQ6PaQp59Yct","core":false,"name":"Less-discussed causes","slug":"less-discussed-causes","tagRel":{"_id":"9xpAwApMpyksY4kAw","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":581,"description":"
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  Summary and purpose
  I suggest that effective altruists should:
  1. Be careful to avoid using jargon to convey something that isn’t what the jargon is actually meant to convey, and that could be conveyed well without any jargon.

1. Key Takeaways

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Summary and purpose

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Introduction

Funding

Further reading

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Improving policy

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Funding

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Further reading

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Overall

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Matt Wage

80,000 Hours ($100,000)

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Problem

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