Turning the United Nations into a Decentralized Autonomous Organization
The UN is now running on ancient technology[source], is extremely centralized[source] and uses outdated voting methods and consensus rules[source]. This results in a slow, inefficient organization, vulnerable to regulatory capture and with messed up incentives.
Fortunately, we now have much better alternatives: Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs) are blockchain-based organizations which run on smart contracts. They offer many benefits compared to legacy technology:
1. Since the blockchain is always online and permanent, they are always available, fast, and 100% transparent by design.
2. They are decentralized and invulnerable to any attacks:
The blockchain-based DAO system works in a fully decentralized way and is immune to both outside and inside attacks. At the same time, operations of such system is only controlled by pre-defined rules; thus, the uncertainty and errors caused by human processes are greatly reduced.
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3. The rules are enforced by code, so they are unbreakable.
When a government’s powers are encoded on a blockchain, its limitations will not be mere redress in a court of law, but will be the code itself. The inherent capabilities of blockchain technology can ex ante prevent a government from acting ultra vires; it can prevent government over-reach before the government act occurs.
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4. They support new forms of governance and voting, such as futarchy or quadratic voting [source].
5. Since everything runs on ethereum, and cryptocurrencies always go up, a small investment in Ether now could provide enough funds to run the UN forever, freeing states from having to contribute funds [source].
Given the ample benefits, I'm sure a quick email to UN Secretary General António Guterres will convince everyone to switch to DAOs. Thus, we only need a small team of developers to write the code, which should take maybe a couple of months.
What is the expected impact? The UN recently prohibited nuclear weapons[source], contributing to reduce nuclear risk. An improvement in UN efficiency and capabilities is likely to lead to reduced existential risk, via better global coordination on issues like AI Safety.
Note that the savings from reduced operating costs will be much greater than the implementation cost, so this could even be a profitable intervention.
Bayesian Reformation
Bayesian orthodoxy has often been compared to a cult. Here, we take the opposite perspective, comparing Bayesianism to a long-standing institution like the Catholic Church.
The protestant reformation created initial (and ongoing) unrest, including bloody violence. However, we take the view that the reformation improved social institutions generally, culminating in the industrial revolution. Hence, the reformation offers a model of high-leverage changes with dramatically positive consequences on the future.
The primary question, then, is effective instigation and agitation -- how does one create conditions ripe for Reformation? What are the preconditions to a modern Martin Luther, nailing a new 95 Theses to the door of Bayesianism and Effective Altruism?
Since the historical Martin Luther initially studied as a lawyer, but hated it, we recommend a critical study of the law as a starting point, including the naturalization of the social contract. This goes well with a general study of the failures of top-down optimization such as Bayesian/utilitarian public policy tends to favor.
The distribution of radical literature being an old standby of the instigation and agitation industry, we recommend the circulation of literature concerning radical probabilism, a doctrine which critiques the Bayesian update -- insisting that, while Bayes' Law correctly analyzes updating on a certainty, there is in fact no such thing as certain knowledge. Bayes' Law therefore never applies.
According to this doctrine, all we can say about the shifting nature of belief is that they should not be (unboundedly) Dutch Book -able. In particular, like financial markets, they should behave like a martingale -- at any time, the current betting value ('price') of any belief should also be a best estimate of its future value.
We also broadly recommend attention be paid to critiques of Bayesian orthodoxy, implying that we sit down and actually pay attention to various critiques of Bayesianism (Frequentist, and otherwise). For too long have we rested in complacency, accepting Bayesian dogma. The time has come to develop a better perspective.