The Giving What We Can research team is excited to share the results of our first round of evaluations of charity evaluators and grantmakers! After announcing our plans for a new research direction last year, we have now completed five[1] evaluations that will inform our donation recommendations for this giving season. There are substantial limitations to these evaluations, but we nevertheless think that they are a significant improvement on the status quo, in which there were no independent evaluations of evaluators’ work. We plan to continue to evaluate evaluators, extending the list beyond the five we’ve covered so far, improving our methodology, and regularly renewing our existing evaluations.
In this post, we share the key takeaways from each of these evaluations, and link to the full reports. [EDIT 27 November] Our website has now been updated to reflect the new fund and charity recommendations that came out of these evaluations. We shared these reports here in advance of our website update so those interested had time to read them and could ask questions before our AMA on the 27th and 28th of November. Please also see our website for more context on why and how we evaluate evaluators.
One other exciting (and related) announcement: [EDIT 27 November] we’ve now launched our new GWWC cause area funds! These funds (which you’ll see referenced in the reports) will make grants based on our latest evaluations of evaluators, advised by the evaluators we end up working with.[2] We are launching them to provide a strong and easy default donation option for donors, and one that will stay up-to-date over time (i.e., donors can set up a recurring donation to these funds knowing that it will always be allocated based on GWWC’s latest research). We will still encourage donors to donate directly to funds and charities recommended by evaluators if they prefer to select specific programs and will continue to host a broader variety of promising (but not currently recommended) programs on our donation platform as well.
We look forward to your questions and comments, and in particular to engaging with you in our AMA! (Please note that we may not be able to reply to many comments until then, as we are finalising the website updates and some of us will be on leave.)
Global health and wellbeing
GiveWell (GW)
Based on our evaluation, we’ve decided to continue to rely on GW’s charity recommendations and to ask GW to advise our new GWWC Global Health and Wellbeing Fund.
Some takeaways that inform this decision include:
- GW’s overall processes for charity recommendations and grantmaking are generally very strong, reflecting a lot of best practices in finding and funding the most cost-effective opportunities.
- GW’s cost-effectiveness analyses stood up to our quality checks. We thought its work was remarkably evenhanded (we never got the impression that the evaluations were exaggerated), and we generally found only minor issues in the substance of its reasoning, though we did find issues with how well this reasoning was presented and explained.
- We found it noteworthy how much subjective judgement plays a role in its work, especially with how GW compares different outcomes (like saving and improving lives), and also in some key parameters in its cost-effectiveness analyses supporting deworming. We think reasonable people could come to different conclusions than GW does in some cases, but we think GW’s approach is sufficiently well justified overall for our purposes.
For more, please see the evaluation report.
Happier Lives Institute (HLI)
We stopped this evaluation short of finishing it, because we thought the costs of finalising it outweighed the potential benefits at this stage.
For more on this decision and on what we did learn about HLI, please see the evaluation report.
Animal welfare
EA Funds’ Animal Welfare Fund (AWF)
Based on our evaluation, we’ve decided to recommend the AWF as a top-rated fund and to allocate half of our new GWWC Effective Animal Advocacy Fund’s budget to the AWF.
The key findings informing our recommendation of the AWF are:
- Its recent marginal grants and overall grant decision-making look to be of sufficiently high quality.
- We expect the AWF will have significant room to fund grants at or above the quality of its recent marginal grants.
- We don’t know of any clearly better alternative donation options in animal welfare.
We did find what we think to be significant room for improvement in some of the AWF’s grantmaking reasoning and value-add to its grantees beyond funding — much of which the AWF acknowledges and is planning to address. However, we don’t think this room for improvement affects the AWF’s position as being — to our knowledge — among the best places to recommend to donors.
For more, please see the evaluation report.
Animal Charity Evaluators (ACE)
Based on our evaluation, we’ve decided to not currently rely on ACE’s charity recommendations nor to recommend ACE’s Movement Grants programme (MG) as a top-rated fund. However, we still think ACE’s funds and recommendations are worth considering for impact-focused donors and we will continue to host them on the GWWC donation platform. We’ve also decided to recommend the work of one of ACE’s recommendations — The Humane League (THL) — on corporate campaigns for chicken welfare as a top-rated program, and plan to allocate half of the GWWC Effective Animal Advocacy Fund’s budget to it until our next review in animal welfare.
Our key findings informing these decisions are:
- When compared with the AWF, we think ACE’s Movement Grants fund (MG) performs slightly less strongly on several proxies we looked into for the marginal cost-effectiveness of its grants.
- We therefore think the AWF is currently a slightly better donation option for the impact-focused donor. However, we are open to part of this difference being explained by reasonable disagreements on optimal grantmaking strategy. Moreover, if the AWF had not been available as a better alternative by our criteria, we might have recommended MG upon further consideration. We think MG will become more competitive with the AWF, according to our criteria, if it succeeds in implementing the improvements that ACE has planned and in moving closer to the vision for MG that ACE has shared with us.
- ACE’s charity evaluations process does not currently measure marginal cost-effectiveness to a sufficient extent for us to directly rely on the resulting charity recommendations.
- We see some reasons to be hopeful this will change in future evaluations, and still think ACE’s recommendations are worth considering for impact-focused donors. We also expect the gain in impact from giving to any ACE-recommended charity over giving to a random animal welfare charity is much larger than any potential further gain from giving to the AWF or THL’s corporate campaigns over any (other) ACE-recommended charity, and note that we haven’t evaluated ACE’s recommended charities individually, but only ACE’s evaluation process.
- THL’s corporate campaign work for chicken welfare is plausibly a highly cost-effective donation opportunity.
- This assessment is not based on a direct investigation by the GWWC research team, but supported by four separate pieces of evidence, one of which is ACE’s recommendation.
We decided not to make an explicit comparison between THL’s corporate campaign work and the AWF in terms of their marginal cost-effectiveness, as we thought we would be unlikely to find a justifiable difference between the two in the limited time we had available. We decided to recommend both as top-rated options and plan to have our GWWC Effective Animal Advocacy Fund allocate half of its disbursements to THL’s program and to ask the AWF to advise the other half.
For more, please see the evaluation report.
Reducing global catastrophic risks
EA Funds’ Long-Term Future Fund (LTFF)
Based on our evaluation, we’ve decided to recommend the LTFF as a top-rated fund and to allocate half of our new GWWC Risks and Resilience Fund’s budget to the LTFF.
The key findings informing our recommendation of the LTFF are:
- The LTFF has high-quality applicants to make grants to, and has a good basic process for selecting among those.
- The LTFF’s significant room for funding makes it more likely that donations to it will be cost-effective.
- We don’t know of any clearly better alternative donation option in reducing GCRs.[3]
We also found some areas where we think the LTFF could significantly improve:
- Improving the quantity, diversity, and quality of its recorded grant reasoning.
- Improving its response time for grant applications.
The issues we identified seem to mainly be a result of LTFF’s difficulty in maintaining and scaling its grantmaking capacity to match a significant increase in funding applications. This is something the LTFF is aware of and working to address.
We found no clear, justifiable reasons for the donor’s extra dollar to be better spent at the LTFF than at Longview’s Longtermism Fund (or vice versa). As a result, we recommend both as top-rated funds and plan to allocate half of the budget of our Risks and Resilience Fund to each until our next evaluation. We did outline several differences between the LTFF and the LLF so motivated donors can decide for themselves which they think fits their values and starting assumptions best.
For more, please see the evaluation report.
Longview’s Longtermism Fund (LLF)
Based on our evaluation, we’ve decided to recommend the LLF as a top-rated fund and to allocate half of our new GWWC Risks and Resilience Fund’s budget to the LLF.
The key findings informing our recommendation of the LLF are:
- Longview has solid grantmaking processes in place to find highly cost-effective funding opportunities.
- In the grants we evaluated, we generally saw these processes working as intended, which makes us optimistic about the cost-effectiveness of the grants.
- The scope and structure of the LLF is — by design — consistent with what we are looking for with our Risks and Resilience Fund: a fund that makes grants that are relevant and understandable to a wide variety of donors looking to reduce global catastrophic risks.
- We don’t know of any clearly better alternative donation option in reducing GCRs.[3]
We found no clear, justifiable reasons for the donor’s extra dollar to be better spent at the LLF than at the EA Long-Term Future Fund (or vice versa). As a result, we recommend both as top-rated funds and plan to allocate half of the budget of our Risks and Resilience Fund to each until our next evaluation. We did outline several differences between the LLF and the LTFF so motivated donors can decide for themselves which they think fits their values and starting assumptions best.
For more, please see the evaluation report.
- ^
We decided not to complete the HLI evaluation: more on that in the report.
- ^
Note that because GWWC currently doesn’t do individual charity evaluations, in nearly all cases “being advised” will simplify to us granting to the funds and recommendations of the evaluators we have selected based on our evaluations. We have chosen this phrasing because we may want to make exceptions (our recommendation of THL’s corporate campaigns can be seen as one) and we want to retain flexibility to update our Funds’ strategy over time.
- ^
Note that we haven’t yet evaluated Founders Pledge’s Global Catastrophic Risk Fund, but aim to do so next year.
Thanks for your comments and questions, James.
The short answer is "no": we don't think we can currently justify the claim that giving to the AWF is better than giving to THL's corporate campaigns, or vice versa. We did indeed conclude from our evaluation that the AWF can likely use marginal funds cost-effectively, but that isn't the same as deferring to them on all fronts (including because we also found significant room for improvement, as explained in the AWF report), nor does it imply the AWF is better at allocating extra capital than THL is.
Our goal is to provide recommendations to help donors maximise their impact from the perspective of a variety of worldviews, and it's in that light that we decided to also recommend THL's corporate campaigns: consider that someone else could have made an (I think justifiable) comment that is entirely the opposite of what you are saying, i.e. that we should only recommend THL because there we actually have some independent evidence of their intervention working and being highly cost-effective, which is lacking for many if not most of the projects the AWF funds (given the early stage of the AW charity evaluation space).
We criticized ACE MG not for making grants to multiple groups but for doing so at the seeming expense of expected impact. As mentioned above, we don't think THL's corporate campaigns are a worse donation opportunity than the AWF, and we think there may be donors who think it's more cost-effective in expectation, for instance because they put less weight on the individual judgement of grantmakers (or on our judgement in evaluating AWF to be a good donation opportunity!) and think the publicly available evidence for THL is stronger.
I think you're right to worry about this - I do as well! - as I would say there is some implicit measurability bias in our recommendations. Most notably, we ended up recommending THL's corporate campaigns over other ACE recommendations not because we have strong evidence that they are a better donation opportunity than any other individual ACE recommendation, but because they are the only one where we think we have sufficient evidence to justify recommending them.
However, this is importantly different from us prioritising certainty of some positive impact over maximum expected impact: THL's corporate campaigns is our best guess donation opportunity to maximise expected impact (alongside the AWF). If we thought we could have easily justified any one of ACE's other recommendations was better - or even just as good - from that perspective, we would have recommended them, but we currently can't. And please note that "justifying" here isn't about finding "certainty of positive impact": we are looking for the expected value case (as we do for the AWF and our other recommendations as well).
This is a much stronger claim than we are making (THL's corporate campaigns being the "single best marginal giving opportunity"): we think it's one of the two best donation opportunities we can, from the information we have available, recommend to a broad set of donors to maximise their expected impact. We are not claiming that nobody could do better (certainly by their individual values/worldview!), and encourage donors to do their own (further) research if they have the time and expertise available. This is also why we host a broader selection of promising programs donors can look into and support on our donation platform.