Hi!
I'm Tobias Baumann, co-founder of the Center for Reducing Suffering, a new longtermist research organisation focused on figuring out how we can best reduce severe suffering, taking into account all sentient beings. Ask me anything!
A little bit about me:
I’m interested in a broad range of research topics related to cause prioritisation from a suffering-focused perspective. I’ve written about risk factors for s-risks, different types of s-risks, as well as crucial questions on longtermism and artificial intelligence. My most-upvoted EA Forum post (together with David Althaus from the Center on Long-Term Risk) examines how we can best reduce long-term risks from malevolent actors. I’ve also explored various other topics, including space governance, electoral reform, improving our political system, and political representation of future generations. Most recently, I’ve been thinking about patient philanthropy and the optimal timing of efforts to reduce suffering.
Although I'm most interested in questions related to those areas, feel free to ask me anything. Apologies in advance if there are any questions which, for any of many possible reasons, I’m not able to respond to.
Great question! I think both moral and factual disagreements play a significant role. David Althaus suggests a quantitative approach of distinguishing between the “N-ratio”, which measures how much weight one gives to suffering vs. happiness, and the “E-ratio”, which refers to one’s empirical beliefs regarding the ratio of future happiness and suffering. You could prioritise s-risk because of a high N-ratio (i.e. suffering-focused values) or because of a low E-ratio (i.e. pessimistic views of the future).
That suggests that moral and factual disagreements are comparably important. But if I had to decide, I’d guess that moral disagreements are the bigger factor, because there is perhaps more convergence (not necessarily a high degree in absolute terms) on empirical matters. In my experience, many who prioritise suffering reduction still agree to some extent with some arguments for optimism about the future (although not with extreme versions, like claiming that the ratio is “1000000 to 1”, or that the future will automatically be amazing if we avoid extinction). For instance, if you were to combine my factual beliefs with the values of, say, Will MacAskill, then I think the result would probably not consider s-risks a top priority (though still worthy of some concern).
In addition, I am increasingly thinking that “x-risk vs s-risk” is perhaps a false dichotomy, and thinking in those terms may not always be helpful (despite having written much on s-risks myself). There are far more ways to improve the long-term future than this framing suggests, and we should look for interventions that steer the future in robustly positive directions.