This isn’t a typical EA topic, but we aren’t in a typical period. Over the next few years the United States of America could be in danger of slipping away from its traditional liberal democracy and towards a more authoritarian form of government, in ways that could be long lasting in more negative scenarios.
I am curious if anyone in the EA community has any insightful thoughts on what are the best actions we can take to avert the worst case scenarios.
If the system of checks and balances in the U.S. government were to degrade, I think it would be a major negative for a lot of the other issues EAs care about.
If anyone has read anything they have found to be particularly useful, I would be interested in those recommendations as well.
I am even considering allocating a portion of my annual giving to pro democracy causes if they clear a minimum bar of impact.
I take the perspective that the United States is just tending towards the more typical behavior of presidential electoral systems. America will start acting more and more like Latin American presidential regimes, because the of the deadlock that presidential systems create. The checks and balances aren't protecting us. Instead, the checks and balances are what drive the public to elect "strongmen" who can "get things done" - often through illegal and unconstitutional measures.
Trump for example is celebrated for "getting things done" - things that are often illegal and unconstitutional. That's the selling point. Therefore I'm not the only one who has suggested that presidential regimes are unstable. Yet as we look across the world, parliamentary systems also have their own problems with authoritarian takeovers.
I write about what I think the solution is here.
In short, I think we can create a smarter democracy using a system called "sortition". Please take a read of the article I linked for more information.
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Even if sortition might be an interesting policy to you, it's not particularly clear if implementation is politically feasible. The inertia of the US political system is so vast it's hard for any money to budge it. Any financial investment will yield highly nonlinear results. Policy might not change for years, or decades, until suddenly one day policy changes. Yet just because the response to investment is extremely nonlinear doesn't therefore mean it's unwise to invest. (There's also the question if America is the wisest place to invest in. Pro-sortition movements also exist in Europe. Could pro-sortition movements be launched more easily in African and South America?)
In terms of what you can impact in terms of an idea such as sortition, your investment can be used to drive "public awareness" and "lobbying". Money can be used to persuade local governments to adopt pro-sortition policies. Or money could be spent raising public awareness of sortition - public awareness that might lead to movement growth.