This isn’t a typical EA topic, but we aren’t in a typical period. Over the next few years the United States of America could be in danger of slipping away from its traditional liberal democracy and towards a more authoritarian form of government, in ways that could be long lasting in more negative scenarios.
I am curious if anyone in the EA community has any insightful thoughts on what are the best actions we can take to avert the worst case scenarios.
If the system of checks and balances in the U.S. government were to degrade, I think it would be a major negative for a lot of the other issues EAs care about.
If anyone has read anything they have found to be particularly useful, I would be interested in those recommendations as well.
I am even considering allocating a portion of my annual giving to pro democracy causes if they clear a minimum bar of impact.
Completely agree - I think all of my markets are bad. However the direction I'm trying to move in by proposing these questions is to operationalize steps along the way towards autocracy. You could semi replicate this but saying ok well will one of the next 5 elections going to be rigged (if you believe you can operationalize this), but even if you could set up a futures market for it I don't think you will get all that much market efficiency from it.
Betting on the prob of next election is going to paint a very incomplete picture. There is a world in which we are 99% the next election is not going to get rigged but acts during this admin would credibly increase the chance of future riggings by a lot. For instance lets assume trump himself as no interest in being an autocrat. Then he wouldn't rig the election purposely right? And yet the fact that we now have a precedent that you won't be prosecuted for essentially anything if you win the presidency surely changes the incentives of future politicians who are considering meddling.
This is literally my position. I think the next election is >90% to be "relatively fair", but I also think trump is going to do a ton of stuff that paves the way for a future election to not be fair. Picture below to help explain thesis.