This isn’t a typical EA topic, but we aren’t in a typical period. Over the next few years the United States of America could be in danger of slipping away from its traditional liberal democracy and towards a more authoritarian form of government, in ways that could be long lasting in more negative scenarios.
I am curious if anyone in the EA community has any insightful thoughts on what are the best actions we can take to avert the worst case scenarios.
If the system of checks and balances in the U.S. government were to degrade, I think it would be a major negative for a lot of the other issues EAs care about.
If anyone has read anything they have found to be particularly useful, I would be interested in those recommendations as well.
I am even considering allocating a portion of my annual giving to pro democracy causes if they clear a minimum bar of impact.
how about 99/1? pretty wild to me that you would say
and then only offer 90/10 odds. Are you saying you think there is a ~1 in 20 chance the next election is not going to be free and fair? I would not consider freaking about about 1/100 to be hyperbolic, much less 1/20.
Also It would be nice to break this up a little bit more. Here are some things I would probably bet you on, though they need to be clarified and thought out a bit more.