76:I[392826,["$2","$3","$4","$5","$6","$7","$8","$9","$a","$b","$c","$d","$2a","$2b"],"default"] 77:I[836637,["$2","$3","$4","$5","$6","$7","$8","$9","$a","$b","$c","$d","$2a","$2b"],"default"] 78:T145f,

I run Sentinel, a team that seeks to anticipate and respond to large-scale risks. You can read our weekly minutes here. I like to spend my time acquiring deeper models of the world, and generally becoming more formidable. I'm also a fairly good forecaster: I started out on predicting on Good Judgment Open and CSET-Foretell, but now do most of my forecasting through Samotsvety, of which Scott Alexander writes:

I used to post prolifically on the EA Forum, but nowadays, I post my research and thoughts at nunosempere.com / nunosempere.com/blog rather than on this forum, because:

I disagree with the EA Forum's moderation policy—they've banned a few disagreeable people whom I like, and I think they're generally a bit too censorious for my liking.
The Forum website has become more annoying to me over time: more cluttered and more pushy in terms of curated and pinned posts (I've partially mitigated this by writing my own minimalistic frontend)
The above two issues have made me take notice that the EA Forum is beyond my control, and it feels like a dumb move to host my research in a platform that has goals different from my own.

But a good fraction of my past research is still available here on the EA Forum. I'm particularly fond of my series on Estimating Value.

My career has been as follows:

Before Sentinel, I set up my own niche consultancy, Shapley Maximizers. This was very profitable, and I used the profits to bootstrap Sentinel. I am winding this down, but if you have need of estimation services for big decisions, you can still reach out.
I used to do research around longtermism, forecasting and quantification, as well as some programming, at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI). At QURI, I programmed Metaforecast.org, a search tool which aggregates predictions from many different platforms—a more up to date alternative might be adj.news. I spent some time in the Bahamas as part of the FTX EA Fellowship, and did a bunch of work for the FTX Foundation, which then went to waste when it evaporated.
I write a Forecasting Newsletter which gathered a few thousand subscribers; I previously abandoned but have recently restarted it. I used to really enjoy winning bets against people too confident in their beliefs, but I try to do this in structured prediction markets, because betting against normal people started to feel like taking candy from a baby.
Previously, I was a Future of Humanity Institute 2020 Summer Research Fellow, and then worked on a grant from the Long Term Future Fund to do "independent research on forecasting and optimal paths to improve the long-term."
Before that, I studied Maths and Philosophy, dropped out in exasperation at the inefficiency, picked up some development economics; helped implement the European Summer Program on Rationality during 2017, 2018 2019, 2020 and 2022; worked as a contractor for various forecasting and programming projects; volunteered for various Effective Altruism organizations, and carried out many independent research projects. In a past life, I also wrote a popular Spanish literature blog, and remain keenly interested in Spanish poetry.

You can share feedback anonymously with me here.

Note: You can sign up for all my posts here: <https://nunosempere.com/.newsletter/>, or subscribe to my posts' RSS here: <https://nunosempere.com/blog/index.rss>

79:T145f,

I used to post prolifically on the EA Forum, but nowadays, I post my research and thoughts at nunosempere.com / nunosempere.com/blog rather than on this forum, because:

I disagree with the EA Forum's moderation policy—they've banned a few disagreeable people whom I like, and I think they're generally a bit too censorious for my liking.
The Forum website has become more annoying to me over time: more cluttered and more pushy in terms of curated and pinned posts (I've partially mitigated this by writing my own minimalistic frontend)
The above two issues have made me take notice that the EA Forum is beyond my control, and it feels like a dumb move to host my research in a platform that has goals different from my own.

But a good fraction of my past research is still available here on the EA Forum. I'm particularly fond of my series on Estimating Value.

My career has been as follows:

Before Sentinel, I set up my own niche consultancy, Shapley Maximizers. This was very profitable, and I used the profits to bootstrap Sentinel. I am winding this down, but if you have need of estimation services for big decisions, you can still reach out.
I used to do research around longtermism, forecasting and quantification, as well as some programming, at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI). At QURI, I programmed Metaforecast.org, a search tool which aggregates predictions from many different platforms—a more up to date alternative might be adj.news. I spent some time in the Bahamas as part of the FTX EA Fellowship, and did a bunch of work for the FTX Foundation, which then went to waste when it evaporated.
I write a Forecasting Newsletter which gathered a few thousand subscribers; I previously abandoned but have recently restarted it. I used to really enjoy winning bets against people too confident in their beliefs, but I try to do this in structured prediction markets, because betting against normal people started to feel like taking candy from a baby.
Previously, I was a Future of Humanity Institute 2020 Summer Research Fellow, and then worked on a grant from the Long Term Future Fund to do "independent research on forecasting and optimal paths to improve the long-term."
Before that, I studied Maths and Philosophy, dropped out in exasperation at the inefficiency, picked up some development economics; helped implement the European Summer Program on Rationality during 2017, 2018 2019, 2020 and 2022; worked as a contractor for various forecasting and programming projects; volunteered for various Effective Altruism organizations, and carried out many independent research projects. In a past life, I also wrote a popular Spanish literature blog, and remain keenly interested in Spanish poetry.

You can share feedback anonymously with me here.

Note: You can sign up for all my posts here: <https://nunosempere.com/.newsletter/>, or subscribe to my posts' RSS here: <https://nunosempere.com/blog/index.rss>

7a:T145f,

I used to post prolifically on the EA Forum, but nowadays, I post my research and thoughts at nunosempere.com / nunosempere.com/blog rather than on this forum, because:

I disagree with the EA Forum's moderation policy—they've banned a few disagreeable people whom I like, and I think they're generally a bit too censorious for my liking.
The Forum website has become more annoying to me over time: more cluttered and more pushy in terms of curated and pinned posts (I've partially mitigated this by writing my own minimalistic frontend)
The above two issues have made me take notice that the EA Forum is beyond my control, and it feels like a dumb move to host my research in a platform that has goals different from my own.

But a good fraction of my past research is still available here on the EA Forum. I'm particularly fond of my series on Estimating Value.

My career has been as follows:

Before Sentinel, I set up my own niche consultancy, Shapley Maximizers. This was very profitable, and I used the profits to bootstrap Sentinel. I am winding this down, but if you have need of estimation services for big decisions, you can still reach out.
I used to do research around longtermism, forecasting and quantification, as well as some programming, at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI). At QURI, I programmed Metaforecast.org, a search tool which aggregates predictions from many different platforms—a more up to date alternative might be adj.news. I spent some time in the Bahamas as part of the FTX EA Fellowship, and did a bunch of work for the FTX Foundation, which then went to waste when it evaporated.
I write a Forecasting Newsletter which gathered a few thousand subscribers; I previously abandoned but have recently restarted it. I used to really enjoy winning bets against people too confident in their beliefs, but I try to do this in structured prediction markets, because betting against normal people started to feel like taking candy from a baby.
Previously, I was a Future of Humanity Institute 2020 Summer Research Fellow, and then worked on a grant from the Long Term Future Fund to do "independent research on forecasting and optimal paths to improve the long-term."
Before that, I studied Maths and Philosophy, dropped out in exasperation at the inefficiency, picked up some development economics; helped implement the European Summer Program on Rationality during 2017, 2018 2019, 2020 and 2022; worked as a contractor for various forecasting and programming projects; volunteered for various Effective Altruism organizations, and carried out many independent research projects. In a past life, I also wrote a popular Spanish literature blog, and remain keenly interested in Spanish poetry.

You can share feedback anonymously with me here.

Note: You can sign up for all my posts here: <https://nunosempere.com/.newsletter/>, or subscribe to my posts' RSS here: <https://nunosempere.com/blog/index.rss>

7b:T145f,

I used to post prolifically on the EA Forum, but nowadays, I post my research and thoughts at nunosempere.com / nunosempere.com/blog rather than on this forum, because:

I disagree with the EA Forum's moderation policy—they've banned a few disagreeable people whom I like, and I think they're generally a bit too censorious for my liking.
The Forum website has become more annoying to me over time: more cluttered and more pushy in terms of curated and pinned posts (I've partially mitigated this by writing my own minimalistic frontend)
The above two issues have made me take notice that the EA Forum is beyond my control, and it feels like a dumb move to host my research in a platform that has goals different from my own.

But a good fraction of my past research is still available here on the EA Forum. I'm particularly fond of my series on Estimating Value.

My career has been as follows:

Before Sentinel, I set up my own niche consultancy, Shapley Maximizers. This was very profitable, and I used the profits to bootstrap Sentinel. I am winding this down, but if you have need of estimation services for big decisions, you can still reach out.
I used to do research around longtermism, forecasting and quantification, as well as some programming, at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI). At QURI, I programmed Metaforecast.org, a search tool which aggregates predictions from many different platforms—a more up to date alternative might be adj.news. I spent some time in the Bahamas as part of the FTX EA Fellowship, and did a bunch of work for the FTX Foundation, which then went to waste when it evaporated.
I write a Forecasting Newsletter which gathered a few thousand subscribers; I previously abandoned but have recently restarted it. I used to really enjoy winning bets against people too confident in their beliefs, but I try to do this in structured prediction markets, because betting against normal people started to feel like taking candy from a baby.
Previously, I was a Future of Humanity Institute 2020 Summer Research Fellow, and then worked on a grant from the Long Term Future Fund to do "independent research on forecasting and optimal paths to improve the long-term."
Before that, I studied Maths and Philosophy, dropped out in exasperation at the inefficiency, picked up some development economics; helped implement the European Summer Program on Rationality during 2017, 2018 2019, 2020 and 2022; worked as a contractor for various forecasting and programming projects; volunteered for various Effective Altruism organizations, and carried out many independent research projects. In a past life, I also wrote a popular Spanish literature blog, and remain keenly interested in Spanish poetry.

You can share feedback anonymously with me here.

Note: You can sign up for all my posts here: <https://nunosempere.com/.newsletter/>, or subscribe to my posts' RSS here: <https://nunosempere.com/blog/index.rss>

7c:T145f,

I used to post prolifically on the EA Forum, but nowadays, I post my research and thoughts at nunosempere.com / nunosempere.com/blog rather than on this forum, because:

I disagree with the EA Forum's moderation policy—they've banned a few disagreeable people whom I like, and I think they're generally a bit too censorious for my liking.
The Forum website has become more annoying to me over time: more cluttered and more pushy in terms of curated and pinned posts (I've partially mitigated this by writing my own minimalistic frontend)
The above two issues have made me take notice that the EA Forum is beyond my control, and it feels like a dumb move to host my research in a platform that has goals different from my own.

But a good fraction of my past research is still available here on the EA Forum. I'm particularly fond of my series on Estimating Value.

My career has been as follows:

Before Sentinel, I set up my own niche consultancy, Shapley Maximizers. This was very profitable, and I used the profits to bootstrap Sentinel. I am winding this down, but if you have need of estimation services for big decisions, you can still reach out.
I used to do research around longtermism, forecasting and quantification, as well as some programming, at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI). At QURI, I programmed Metaforecast.org, a search tool which aggregates predictions from many different platforms—a more up to date alternative might be adj.news. I spent some time in the Bahamas as part of the FTX EA Fellowship, and did a bunch of work for the FTX Foundation, which then went to waste when it evaporated.
I write a Forecasting Newsletter which gathered a few thousand subscribers; I previously abandoned but have recently restarted it. I used to really enjoy winning bets against people too confident in their beliefs, but I try to do this in structured prediction markets, because betting against normal people started to feel like taking candy from a baby.
Previously, I was a Future of Humanity Institute 2020 Summer Research Fellow, and then worked on a grant from the Long Term Future Fund to do "independent research on forecasting and optimal paths to improve the long-term."
Before that, I studied Maths and Philosophy, dropped out in exasperation at the inefficiency, picked up some development economics; helped implement the European Summer Program on Rationality during 2017, 2018 2019, 2020 and 2022; worked as a contractor for various forecasting and programming projects; volunteered for various Effective Altruism organizations, and carried out many independent research projects. In a past life, I also wrote a popular Spanish literature blog, and remain keenly interested in Spanish poetry.

You can share feedback anonymously with me here.

Note: You can sign up for all my posts here: <https://nunosempere.com/.newsletter/>, or subscribe to my posts' RSS here: <https://nunosempere.com/blog/index.rss>

7d:T145f,

I used to post prolifically on the EA Forum, but nowadays, I post my research and thoughts at nunosempere.com / nunosempere.com/blog rather than on this forum, because:

I disagree with the EA Forum's moderation policy—they've banned a few disagreeable people whom I like, and I think they're generally a bit too censorious for my liking.
The Forum website has become more annoying to me over time: more cluttered and more pushy in terms of curated and pinned posts (I've partially mitigated this by writing my own minimalistic frontend)
The above two issues have made me take notice that the EA Forum is beyond my control, and it feels like a dumb move to host my research in a platform that has goals different from my own.

But a good fraction of my past research is still available here on the EA Forum. I'm particularly fond of my series on Estimating Value.

My career has been as follows:

Before Sentinel, I set up my own niche consultancy, Shapley Maximizers. This was very profitable, and I used the profits to bootstrap Sentinel. I am winding this down, but if you have need of estimation services for big decisions, you can still reach out.
I used to do research around longtermism, forecasting and quantification, as well as some programming, at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI). At QURI, I programmed Metaforecast.org, a search tool which aggregates predictions from many different platforms—a more up to date alternative might be adj.news. I spent some time in the Bahamas as part of the FTX EA Fellowship, and did a bunch of work for the FTX Foundation, which then went to waste when it evaporated.
I write a Forecasting Newsletter which gathered a few thousand subscribers; I previously abandoned but have recently restarted it. I used to really enjoy winning bets against people too confident in their beliefs, but I try to do this in structured prediction markets, because betting against normal people started to feel like taking candy from a baby.
Previously, I was a Future of Humanity Institute 2020 Summer Research Fellow, and then worked on a grant from the Long Term Future Fund to do "independent research on forecasting and optimal paths to improve the long-term."
Before that, I studied Maths and Philosophy, dropped out in exasperation at the inefficiency, picked up some development economics; helped implement the European Summer Program on Rationality during 2017, 2018 2019, 2020 and 2022; worked as a contractor for various forecasting and programming projects; volunteered for various Effective Altruism organizations, and carried out many independent research projects. In a past life, I also wrote a popular Spanish literature blog, and remain keenly interested in Spanish poetry.

You can share feedback anonymously with me here.

Note: You can sign up for all my posts here: <https://nunosempere.com/.newsletter/>, or subscribe to my posts' RSS here: <https://nunosempere.com/blog/index.rss>

7e:T145f,

I used to post prolifically on the EA Forum, but nowadays, I post my research and thoughts at nunosempere.com / nunosempere.com/blog rather than on this forum, because:

I disagree with the EA Forum's moderation policy—they've banned a few disagreeable people whom I like, and I think they're generally a bit too censorious for my liking.
The Forum website has become more annoying to me over time: more cluttered and more pushy in terms of curated and pinned posts (I've partially mitigated this by writing my own minimalistic frontend)
The above two issues have made me take notice that the EA Forum is beyond my control, and it feels like a dumb move to host my research in a platform that has goals different from my own.

But a good fraction of my past research is still available here on the EA Forum. I'm particularly fond of my series on Estimating Value.

My career has been as follows:

Before Sentinel, I set up my own niche consultancy, Shapley Maximizers. This was very profitable, and I used the profits to bootstrap Sentinel. I am winding this down, but if you have need of estimation services for big decisions, you can still reach out.
I used to do research around longtermism, forecasting and quantification, as well as some programming, at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI). At QURI, I programmed Metaforecast.org, a search tool which aggregates predictions from many different platforms—a more up to date alternative might be adj.news. I spent some time in the Bahamas as part of the FTX EA Fellowship, and did a bunch of work for the FTX Foundation, which then went to waste when it evaporated.
I write a Forecasting Newsletter which gathered a few thousand subscribers; I previously abandoned but have recently restarted it. I used to really enjoy winning bets against people too confident in their beliefs, but I try to do this in structured prediction markets, because betting against normal people started to feel like taking candy from a baby.
Previously, I was a Future of Humanity Institute 2020 Summer Research Fellow, and then worked on a grant from the Long Term Future Fund to do "independent research on forecasting and optimal paths to improve the long-term."
Before that, I studied Maths and Philosophy, dropped out in exasperation at the inefficiency, picked up some development economics; helped implement the European Summer Program on Rationality during 2017, 2018 2019, 2020 and 2022; worked as a contractor for various forecasting and programming projects; volunteered for various Effective Altruism organizations, and carried out many independent research projects. In a past life, I also wrote a popular Spanish literature blog, and remain keenly interested in Spanish poetry.

You can share feedback anonymously with me here.

Note: You can sign up for all my posts here: <https://nunosempere.com/.newsletter/>, or subscribe to my posts' RSS here: <https://nunosempere.com/blog/index.rss>

7f:T145f,

I used to post prolifically on the EA Forum, but nowadays, I post my research and thoughts at nunosempere.com / nunosempere.com/blog rather than on this forum, because:

I disagree with the EA Forum's moderation policy—they've banned a few disagreeable people whom I like, and I think they're generally a bit too censorious for my liking.
The Forum website has become more annoying to me over time: more cluttered and more pushy in terms of curated and pinned posts (I've partially mitigated this by writing my own minimalistic frontend)
The above two issues have made me take notice that the EA Forum is beyond my control, and it feels like a dumb move to host my research in a platform that has goals different from my own.

But a good fraction of my past research is still available here on the EA Forum. I'm particularly fond of my series on Estimating Value.

My career has been as follows:

Before Sentinel, I set up my own niche consultancy, Shapley Maximizers. This was very profitable, and I used the profits to bootstrap Sentinel. I am winding this down, but if you have need of estimation services for big decisions, you can still reach out.
I used to do research around longtermism, forecasting and quantification, as well as some programming, at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI). At QURI, I programmed Metaforecast.org, a search tool which aggregates predictions from many different platforms—a more up to date alternative might be adj.news. I spent some time in the Bahamas as part of the FTX EA Fellowship, and did a bunch of work for the FTX Foundation, which then went to waste when it evaporated.
I write a Forecasting Newsletter which gathered a few thousand subscribers; I previously abandoned but have recently restarted it. I used to really enjoy winning bets against people too confident in their beliefs, but I try to do this in structured prediction markets, because betting against normal people started to feel like taking candy from a baby.
Previously, I was a Future of Humanity Institute 2020 Summer Research Fellow, and then worked on a grant from the Long Term Future Fund to do "independent research on forecasting and optimal paths to improve the long-term."
Before that, I studied Maths and Philosophy, dropped out in exasperation at the inefficiency, picked up some development economics; helped implement the European Summer Program on Rationality during 2017, 2018 2019, 2020 and 2022; worked as a contractor for various forecasting and programming projects; volunteered for various Effective Altruism organizations, and carried out many independent research projects. In a past life, I also wrote a popular Spanish literature blog, and remain keenly interested in Spanish poetry.

You can share feedback anonymously with me here.

Note: You can sign up for all my posts here: <https://nunosempere.com/.newsletter/>, or subscribe to my posts' RSS here: <https://nunosempere.com/blog/index.rss>

80:T145f,

I used to post prolifically on the EA Forum, but nowadays, I post my research and thoughts at nunosempere.com / nunosempere.com/blog rather than on this forum, because:

I disagree with the EA Forum's moderation policy—they've banned a few disagreeable people whom I like, and I think they're generally a bit too censorious for my liking.
The Forum website has become more annoying to me over time: more cluttered and more pushy in terms of curated and pinned posts (I've partially mitigated this by writing my own minimalistic frontend)
The above two issues have made me take notice that the EA Forum is beyond my control, and it feels like a dumb move to host my research in a platform that has goals different from my own.

But a good fraction of my past research is still available here on the EA Forum. I'm particularly fond of my series on Estimating Value.

My career has been as follows:

Before Sentinel, I set up my own niche consultancy, Shapley Maximizers. This was very profitable, and I used the profits to bootstrap Sentinel. I am winding this down, but if you have need of estimation services for big decisions, you can still reach out.
I used to do research around longtermism, forecasting and quantification, as well as some programming, at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI). At QURI, I programmed Metaforecast.org, a search tool which aggregates predictions from many different platforms—a more up to date alternative might be adj.news. I spent some time in the Bahamas as part of the FTX EA Fellowship, and did a bunch of work for the FTX Foundation, which then went to waste when it evaporated.
I write a Forecasting Newsletter which gathered a few thousand subscribers; I previously abandoned but have recently restarted it. I used to really enjoy winning bets against people too confident in their beliefs, but I try to do this in structured prediction markets, because betting against normal people started to feel like taking candy from a baby.
Previously, I was a Future of Humanity Institute 2020 Summer Research Fellow, and then worked on a grant from the Long Term Future Fund to do "independent research on forecasting and optimal paths to improve the long-term."
Before that, I studied Maths and Philosophy, dropped out in exasperation at the inefficiency, picked up some development economics; helped implement the European Summer Program on Rationality during 2017, 2018 2019, 2020 and 2022; worked as a contractor for various forecasting and programming projects; volunteered for various Effective Altruism organizations, and carried out many independent research projects. In a past life, I also wrote a popular Spanish literature blog, and remain keenly interested in Spanish poetry.

You can share feedback anonymously with me here.

Note: You can sign up for all my posts here: <https://nunosempere.com/.newsletter/>, or subscribe to my posts' RSS here: <https://nunosempere.com/blog/index.rss>

81:T145f,

I used to post prolifically on the EA Forum, but nowadays, I post my research and thoughts at nunosempere.com / nunosempere.com/blog rather than on this forum, because:

I disagree with the EA Forum's moderation policy—they've banned a few disagreeable people whom I like, and I think they're generally a bit too censorious for my liking.
The Forum website has become more annoying to me over time: more cluttered and more pushy in terms of curated and pinned posts (I've partially mitigated this by writing my own minimalistic frontend)
The above two issues have made me take notice that the EA Forum is beyond my control, and it feels like a dumb move to host my research in a platform that has goals different from my own.

But a good fraction of my past research is still available here on the EA Forum. I'm particularly fond of my series on Estimating Value.

My career has been as follows:

Before Sentinel, I set up my own niche consultancy, Shapley Maximizers. This was very profitable, and I used the profits to bootstrap Sentinel. I am winding this down, but if you have need of estimation services for big decisions, you can still reach out.
I used to do research around longtermism, forecasting and quantification, as well as some programming, at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI). At QURI, I programmed Metaforecast.org, a search tool which aggregates predictions from many different platforms—a more up to date alternative might be adj.news. I spent some time in the Bahamas as part of the FTX EA Fellowship, and did a bunch of work for the FTX Foundation, which then went to waste when it evaporated.
I write a Forecasting Newsletter which gathered a few thousand subscribers; I previously abandoned but have recently restarted it. I used to really enjoy winning bets against people too confident in their beliefs, but I try to do this in structured prediction markets, because betting against normal people started to feel like taking candy from a baby.
Previously, I was a Future of Humanity Institute 2020 Summer Research Fellow, and then worked on a grant from the Long Term Future Fund to do "independent research on forecasting and optimal paths to improve the long-term."
Before that, I studied Maths and Philosophy, dropped out in exasperation at the inefficiency, picked up some development economics; helped implement the European Summer Program on Rationality during 2017, 2018 2019, 2020 and 2022; worked as a contractor for various forecasting and programming projects; volunteered for various Effective Altruism organizations, and carried out many independent research projects. In a past life, I also wrote a popular Spanish literature blog, and remain keenly interested in Spanish poetry.

You can share feedback anonymously with me here.

Note: You can sign up for all my posts here: <https://nunosempere.com/.newsletter/>, or subscribe to my posts' RSS here: <https://nunosempere.com/blog/index.rss>

82:T145f,

I used to post prolifically on the EA Forum, but nowadays, I post my research and thoughts at nunosempere.com / nunosempere.com/blog rather than on this forum, because:

I disagree with the EA Forum's moderation policy—they've banned a few disagreeable people whom I like, and I think they're generally a bit too censorious for my liking.
The Forum website has become more annoying to me over time: more cluttered and more pushy in terms of curated and pinned posts (I've partially mitigated this by writing my own minimalistic frontend)
The above two issues have made me take notice that the EA Forum is beyond my control, and it feels like a dumb move to host my research in a platform that has goals different from my own.

But a good fraction of my past research is still available here on the EA Forum. I'm particularly fond of my series on Estimating Value.

My career has been as follows:

Before Sentinel, I set up my own niche consultancy, Shapley Maximizers. This was very profitable, and I used the profits to bootstrap Sentinel. I am winding this down, but if you have need of estimation services for big decisions, you can still reach out.
I used to do research around longtermism, forecasting and quantification, as well as some programming, at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI). At QURI, I programmed Metaforecast.org, a search tool which aggregates predictions from many different platforms—a more up to date alternative might be adj.news. I spent some time in the Bahamas as part of the FTX EA Fellowship, and did a bunch of work for the FTX Foundation, which then went to waste when it evaporated.
I write a Forecasting Newsletter which gathered a few thousand subscribers; I previously abandoned but have recently restarted it. I used to really enjoy winning bets against people too confident in their beliefs, but I try to do this in structured prediction markets, because betting against normal people started to feel like taking candy from a baby.
Previously, I was a Future of Humanity Institute 2020 Summer Research Fellow, and then worked on a grant from the Long Term Future Fund to do "independent research on forecasting and optimal paths to improve the long-term."
Before that, I studied Maths and Philosophy, dropped out in exasperation at the inefficiency, picked up some development economics; helped implement the European Summer Program on Rationality during 2017, 2018 2019, 2020 and 2022; worked as a contractor for various forecasting and programming projects; volunteered for various Effective Altruism organizations, and carried out many independent research projects. In a past life, I also wrote a popular Spanish literature blog, and remain keenly interested in Spanish poetry.

You can share feedback anonymously with me here.

Note: You can sign up for all my posts here: <https://nunosempere.com/.newsletter/>, or subscribe to my posts' RSS here: <https://nunosempere.com/blog/index.rss>

83:T145f,

I used to post prolifically on the EA Forum, but nowadays, I post my research and thoughts at nunosempere.com / nunosempere.com/blog rather than on this forum, because:

I disagree with the EA Forum's moderation policy—they've banned a few disagreeable people whom I like, and I think they're generally a bit too censorious for my liking.
The Forum website has become more annoying to me over time: more cluttered and more pushy in terms of curated and pinned posts (I've partially mitigated this by writing my own minimalistic frontend)
The above two issues have made me take notice that the EA Forum is beyond my control, and it feels like a dumb move to host my research in a platform that has goals different from my own.

But a good fraction of my past research is still available here on the EA Forum. I'm particularly fond of my series on Estimating Value.

My career has been as follows:

Before Sentinel, I set up my own niche consultancy, Shapley Maximizers. This was very profitable, and I used the profits to bootstrap Sentinel. I am winding this down, but if you have need of estimation services for big decisions, you can still reach out.
I used to do research around longtermism, forecasting and quantification, as well as some programming, at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI). At QURI, I programmed Metaforecast.org, a search tool which aggregates predictions from many different platforms—a more up to date alternative might be adj.news. I spent some time in the Bahamas as part of the FTX EA Fellowship, and did a bunch of work for the FTX Foundation, which then went to waste when it evaporated.
I write a Forecasting Newsletter which gathered a few thousand subscribers; I previously abandoned but have recently restarted it. I used to really enjoy winning bets against people too confident in their beliefs, but I try to do this in structured prediction markets, because betting against normal people started to feel like taking candy from a baby.
Previously, I was a Future of Humanity Institute 2020 Summer Research Fellow, and then worked on a grant from the Long Term Future Fund to do "independent research on forecasting and optimal paths to improve the long-term."
Before that, I studied Maths and Philosophy, dropped out in exasperation at the inefficiency, picked up some development economics; helped implement the European Summer Program on Rationality during 2017, 2018 2019, 2020 and 2022; worked as a contractor for various forecasting and programming projects; volunteered for various Effective Altruism organizations, and carried out many independent research projects. In a past life, I also wrote a popular Spanish literature blog, and remain keenly interested in Spanish poetry.

You can share feedback anonymously with me here.

Note: You can sign up for all my posts here: <https://nunosempere.com/.newsletter/>, or subscribe to my posts' RSS here: <https://nunosempere.com/blog/index.rss>

84:T145f,

I used to post prolifically on the EA Forum, but nowadays, I post my research and thoughts at nunosempere.com / nunosempere.com/blog rather than on this forum, because:

I disagree with the EA Forum's moderation policy—they've banned a few disagreeable people whom I like, and I think they're generally a bit too censorious for my liking.
The Forum website has become more annoying to me over time: more cluttered and more pushy in terms of curated and pinned posts (I've partially mitigated this by writing my own minimalistic frontend)
The above two issues have made me take notice that the EA Forum is beyond my control, and it feels like a dumb move to host my research in a platform that has goals different from my own.

But a good fraction of my past research is still available here on the EA Forum. I'm particularly fond of my series on Estimating Value.

My career has been as follows:

Before Sentinel, I set up my own niche consultancy, Shapley Maximizers. This was very profitable, and I used the profits to bootstrap Sentinel. I am winding this down, but if you have need of estimation services for big decisions, you can still reach out.
I used to do research around longtermism, forecasting and quantification, as well as some programming, at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI). At QURI, I programmed Metaforecast.org, a search tool which aggregates predictions from many different platforms—a more up to date alternative might be adj.news. I spent some time in the Bahamas as part of the FTX EA Fellowship, and did a bunch of work for the FTX Foundation, which then went to waste when it evaporated.
I write a Forecasting Newsletter which gathered a few thousand subscribers; I previously abandoned but have recently restarted it. I used to really enjoy winning bets against people too confident in their beliefs, but I try to do this in structured prediction markets, because betting against normal people started to feel like taking candy from a baby.
Previously, I was a Future of Humanity Institute 2020 Summer Research Fellow, and then worked on a grant from the Long Term Future Fund to do "independent research on forecasting and optimal paths to improve the long-term."
Before that, I studied Maths and Philosophy, dropped out in exasperation at the inefficiency, picked up some development economics; helped implement the European Summer Program on Rationality during 2017, 2018 2019, 2020 and 2022; worked as a contractor for various forecasting and programming projects; volunteered for various Effective Altruism organizations, and carried out many independent research projects. In a past life, I also wrote a popular Spanish literature blog, and remain keenly interested in Spanish poetry.

You can share feedback anonymously with me here.

Note: You can sign up for all my posts here: <https://nunosempere.com/.newsletter/>, or subscribe to my posts' RSS here: <https://nunosempere.com/blog/index.rss>

85:T145f,

I used to post prolifically on the EA Forum, but nowadays, I post my research and thoughts at nunosempere.com / nunosempere.com/blog rather than on this forum, because:

I disagree with the EA Forum's moderation policy—they've banned a few disagreeable people whom I like, and I think they're generally a bit too censorious for my liking.
The Forum website has become more annoying to me over time: more cluttered and more pushy in terms of curated and pinned posts (I've partially mitigated this by writing my own minimalistic frontend)
The above two issues have made me take notice that the EA Forum is beyond my control, and it feels like a dumb move to host my research in a platform that has goals different from my own.

But a good fraction of my past research is still available here on the EA Forum. I'm particularly fond of my series on Estimating Value.

My career has been as follows:

Before Sentinel, I set up my own niche consultancy, Shapley Maximizers. This was very profitable, and I used the profits to bootstrap Sentinel. I am winding this down, but if you have need of estimation services for big decisions, you can still reach out.
I used to do research around longtermism, forecasting and quantification, as well as some programming, at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI). At QURI, I programmed Metaforecast.org, a search tool which aggregates predictions from many different platforms—a more up to date alternative might be adj.news. I spent some time in the Bahamas as part of the FTX EA Fellowship, and did a bunch of work for the FTX Foundation, which then went to waste when it evaporated.
I write a Forecasting Newsletter which gathered a few thousand subscribers; I previously abandoned but have recently restarted it. I used to really enjoy winning bets against people too confident in their beliefs, but I try to do this in structured prediction markets, because betting against normal people started to feel like taking candy from a baby.
Previously, I was a Future of Humanity Institute 2020 Summer Research Fellow, and then worked on a grant from the Long Term Future Fund to do "independent research on forecasting and optimal paths to improve the long-term."
Before that, I studied Maths and Philosophy, dropped out in exasperation at the inefficiency, picked up some development economics; helped implement the European Summer Program on Rationality during 2017, 2018 2019, 2020 and 2022; worked as a contractor for various forecasting and programming projects; volunteered for various Effective Altruism organizations, and carried out many independent research projects. In a past life, I also wrote a popular Spanish literature blog, and remain keenly interested in Spanish poetry.

You can share feedback anonymously with me here.

Note: You can sign up for all my posts here: <https://nunosempere.com/.newsletter/>, or subscribe to my posts' RSS here: <https://nunosempere.com/blog/index.rss>

86:T145f,

I used to post prolifically on the EA Forum, but nowadays, I post my research and thoughts at nunosempere.com / nunosempere.com/blog rather than on this forum, because:

I disagree with the EA Forum's moderation policy—they've banned a few disagreeable people whom I like, and I think they're generally a bit too censorious for my liking.
The Forum website has become more annoying to me over time: more cluttered and more pushy in terms of curated and pinned posts (I've partially mitigated this by writing my own minimalistic frontend)
The above two issues have made me take notice that the EA Forum is beyond my control, and it feels like a dumb move to host my research in a platform that has goals different from my own.

But a good fraction of my past research is still available here on the EA Forum. I'm particularly fond of my series on Estimating Value.

My career has been as follows:

Before Sentinel, I set up my own niche consultancy, Shapley Maximizers. This was very profitable, and I used the profits to bootstrap Sentinel. I am winding this down, but if you have need of estimation services for big decisions, you can still reach out.
I used to do research around longtermism, forecasting and quantification, as well as some programming, at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI). At QURI, I programmed Metaforecast.org, a search tool which aggregates predictions from many different platforms—a more up to date alternative might be adj.news. I spent some time in the Bahamas as part of the FTX EA Fellowship, and did a bunch of work for the FTX Foundation, which then went to waste when it evaporated.
I write a Forecasting Newsletter which gathered a few thousand subscribers; I previously abandoned but have recently restarted it. I used to really enjoy winning bets against people too confident in their beliefs, but I try to do this in structured prediction markets, because betting against normal people started to feel like taking candy from a baby.
Previously, I was a Future of Humanity Institute 2020 Summer Research Fellow, and then worked on a grant from the Long Term Future Fund to do "independent research on forecasting and optimal paths to improve the long-term."
Before that, I studied Maths and Philosophy, dropped out in exasperation at the inefficiency, picked up some development economics; helped implement the European Summer Program on Rationality during 2017, 2018 2019, 2020 and 2022; worked as a contractor for various forecasting and programming projects; volunteered for various Effective Altruism organizations, and carried out many independent research projects. In a past life, I also wrote a popular Spanish literature blog, and remain keenly interested in Spanish poetry.

You can share feedback anonymously with me here.

Note: You can sign up for all my posts here: <https://nunosempere.com/.newsletter/>, or subscribe to my posts' RSS here: <https://nunosempere.com/blog/index.rss>

6b:["$","$L2d",null,{"pageSectionContext":"tagsSection","children":["$","div",null,{"data-component":"TopicPostsList","children":[["$","div",null,{"data-component":"SectionTitle","className":"flex items-center justify-between mb-1 min-h-8","children":[["$","div",null,{"id":"posts-tagged-forecasting-newsletter","ref":"$undefined","style":"$undefined","className":"font-sans text-[13px] font-[700] leading-[16px] uppercase text-gray-600 ","data-component":"Type","data-style":"sectionTitleSmall","children":"Posts tagged Forecasting Newsletter"}],["$","div",null,{"children":["$","$L76",null,{"sortedBy":"top"}]}]]}],["$","$L77","top",{"tagId":"gttxR9Cnzo6MQwJ5c","tagName":"Forecasting Newsletter","sortedBy":"top","initialPosts":[{"_id":"9YJKugJ68qTFzMNCM","slug":"forecasting-newsletter-april-2020","title":"Forecasting Newsletter: April 2020","url":null,"baseScore":54,"voteCount":22,"commentCount":8,"postedAt":"2020-04-30T16:41:38.630Z","curatedDate":null,"frontpageDate":"2020-04-30T17:03:43.020Z","draft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":null,"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":"","readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2020-05-06T19:34:30.831Z","sharingSettings":null,"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"YRCdk7cvPT6pyiph9","slug":"nunosempere","displayName":"NunoSempere","username":"NunoSempere","createdAt":"2018-11-15T15:52:18.347Z","profileImageId":"Profile/k878ddoduabhtngbawob","karma":13987,"jobTitle":"Director, Head of Foresight","organization":"Sentinel","postCount":107,"commentCount":1294,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":"$78"},"contents":{"wordCount":1959,"htmlHighlight":"

A forecasting digest with a focus on experimental forecasting.

You can sign up here.
You can also see this post on LessWrong here
And the post is archived here

The newsletter itself is expe..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"gttxR9Cnzo6MQwJ5c","core":false,"name":"Forecasting Newsletter","slug":"forecasting-newsletter","tagRel":{"_id":"WeZ2TeBAxMwHr6bNJ","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":33,"description":"

The Forecasting Newsletter is a monthly newsletter about forecasting, with a focus on experimental human judgemental forecasting. It was launched in early 2020.

Highlights

Sequoia Capital on forecasting and scenario planning
GPI workshop on longterm forecasting happened, notes below.
Forecasters were very surprised by a recent large jump in ML models’ ability to do math
Arb Research..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"gttxR9Cnzo6MQwJ5c","core":false,"name":"Forecasting Newsletter","slug":"forecasting-newsletter","tagRel":{"_id":"ZpmW3qGRfXRk5cuCN","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":33,"description":"
The Forecasting Newsletter is a monthly newsletter about forecasting, with a focus on experimental human judgemental forecasting. It was launched in early 2020.
Further reading
Sempere, Nuño (2020)..."},{"_id":"aJnrnnobcBNWRsfAw","core":true,"name":"Forecasting","slug":"forecasting","tagRel":{"_id":"R6hC8iT2qKpSkEZH6","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":2078,"description":"
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Forecasting Newsletter. June 2020.
\n
Highlights
\n
1. Facebook launches Forecast, a community for crowdsourced predictions.
2. Foretell, a forecasting tournament by the Center for Security and Emerging Technology, is now open.
3. A Preliminary Look at Metaculus and Expert Forecasts: Metaculus f..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"gttxR9Cnzo6MQwJ5c","core":false,"name":"Forecasting Newsletter","slug":"forecasting-newsletter","tagRel":{"_id":"htearxBD3fM578Hoe","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":33,"description":"
  The Forecasting Newsletter is a monthly newsletter about forecasting, with a focus on experimental human judgemental forecasting. It was launched in early 2020.
  Further reading
  Sempere, Nuño (2020)..."},{"_id":"aJnrnnobcBNWRsfAw","core":true,"name":"Forecasting","slug":"forecasting","tagRel":{"_id":"zYhrxmy37RjdHzokJ","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":2078,"description":"
  Forecasting is an important tool for improving the future, because good forecasts and estimates can help us appropriately plan interventions and assess risks. Over the past several decades there has been significant research and investment in forecasting and estimation techniques, tools, and organizations. This continues to be a..."}]},{"_id":"jdB6DDpkndBF7meG5","slug":"forecasting-newsletter-april-2022","title":"Forecasting Newsletter: April 2022","url":null,"baseScore":44,"voteCount":18,"commentCount":2,"postedAt":"2022-05-10T16:40:11.351Z","curatedDate":null,"frontpageDate":"2022-05-10T17:06:01.062Z","draft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":null,"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":"https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/6SA9xW_ewE3XBVyE7J445sz6d3NrZHSPy-1seWBv2NjOG-7d28jHNIoUEN8BCsUDEo8vDj8kRpqsnMpUZrudR9nbsDm2z0wFVLKVg1vOtYCCZm9hB5lRcVGRnTivapJHuUY9gKisiV7Y3XX92Q","readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2022-05-11T20:37:46.126Z","sharingSettings":null,"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"YRCdk7cvPT6pyiph9","slug":"nunosempere","displayName":"NunoSempere","username":"NunoSempere","createdAt":"2018-11-15T15:52:18.347Z","profileImageId":"Profile/k878ddoduabhtngbawob","karma":13987,"jobTitle":"Director, Head of Foresight","organization":"Sentinel","postCount":107,"commentCount":1294,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":"$7c"},"contents":{"wordCount":1711,"htmlHighlight":"
  Highlights
  - The US CDC creates a pandemic forecasting center
  - Tetlock's forecasting team is recruiting for a new tournament on existential risk
  - Manifold Markets makes their webpage..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"gttxR9Cnzo6MQwJ5c","core":false,"name":"Forecasting Newsletter","slug":"forecasting-newsletter","tagRel":{"_id":"2mur8BWJKGuEafEKK","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":33,"description":"
    The Forecasting Newsletter is a monthly newsletter about forecasting, with a focus on experimental human judgemental forecasting. It was launched in early 2020.
    Further reading
    Sempere, Nuño (2020)..."},{"_id":"X8jpxbG3xDQXCwLos","core":false,"name":"Newsletters","slug":"newsletters","tagRel":{"_id":"psehutCvKZ3sRfSec","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":233,"description":"
    Further reading
    Gertler, Aaron (2019) List of EA-related email newsletters, Effective Altruism Forum, October 9.
    A list of newsletters related to effective altruism. See the comments for additions and updates...."},{"_id":"aJnrnnobcBNWRsfAw","core":true,"name":"Forecasting","slug":"forecasting","tagRel":{"_id":"Pb5ku5nmHjSfJCpbG","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":2078,"description":"
    Forecasting is an important tool for improving the future, because good forecasts and estimates can help us appropriately plan interventions and assess risks. Over the past several decades there has been significant research and investment in forecasting and estimation techniques, tools, and organizations. This continues to be a..."}]},{"_id":"ss82grc8esEnHXko3","slug":"forecasting-newsletter-september-2020","title":"Forecasting Newsletter: September 2020. ","url":null,"baseScore":41,"voteCount":14,"commentCount":4,"postedAt":"2020-10-01T11:00:02.405Z","curatedDate":null,"frontpageDate":"2020-10-01T12:06:44.118Z","draft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":null,"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":"https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/ss82grc8esEnHXko3/nixcchm8rcgvwb4trw5e","readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2020-10-01T11:00:02.405Z","sharingSettings":null,"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"YRCdk7cvPT6pyiph9","slug":"nunosempere","displayName":"NunoSempere","username":"NunoSempere","createdAt":"2018-11-15T15:52:18.347Z","profileImageId":"Profile/k878ddoduabhtngbawob","karma":13987,"jobTitle":"Director, Head of Foresight","organization":"Sentinel","postCount":107,"commentCount":1294,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":"$7d"},"contents":{"wordCount":3276,"htmlHighlight":"
    Highlights
    \n
    - Red Cross and Red Crescent societies have been trying out forecast based financing, where funds are released before a potential disaster happens based on forecasts thereof.
    - Andrew Gelman releases Information, incentives, and goals in election forecasts; 538's 80% political pred..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"gttxR9Cnzo6MQwJ5c","core":false,"name":"Forecasting Newsletter","slug":"forecasting-newsletter","tagRel":{"_id":"h2YJJae8CgeC7KMJd","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":33,"description":"
      The Forecasting Newsletter is a monthly newsletter about forecasting, with a focus on experimental human judgemental forecasting. It was launched in early 2020.
      Further reading
      Sempere, Nuño (2020)..."},{"_id":"aJnrnnobcBNWRsfAw","core":true,"name":"Forecasting","slug":"forecasting","tagRel":{"_id":"jwLrePefirBh6FYMS","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":2078,"description":"
      Forecasting is an important tool for improving the future, because good forecasts and estimates can help us appropriately plan interventions and assess risks. Over the past several decades there has been significant research and investment in forecasting and estimation techniques, tools, and organizations. This continues to be a..."}]},{"_id":"jKtGroBskGqi6NgnX","slug":"forecasting-newsletter-december-2021","title":"Forecasting Newsletter: December 2021","url":null,"baseScore":37,"voteCount":11,"commentCount":0,"postedAt":"2022-01-10T19:34:11.816Z","curatedDate":null,"frontpageDate":"2022-01-11T07:05:54.531Z","draft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":null,"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":"https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F14a54db3-34c9-41ca-b90b-5c96b35b01f4_816x438.png","readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2022-01-10T19:34:11.816Z","sharingSettings":null,"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"YRCdk7cvPT6pyiph9","slug":"nunosempere","displayName":"NunoSempere","username":"NunoSempere","createdAt":"2018-11-15T15:52:18.347Z","profileImageId":"Profile/k878ddoduabhtngbawob","karma":13987,"jobTitle":"Director, Head of Foresight","organization":"Sentinel","postCount":107,"commentCount":1294,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":"$7e"},"contents":{"wordCount":2687,"htmlHighlight":"
      Highlights
      - Polymarket’s future is uncertain after it settled with the CFTC for $1.4M
      - Astral Codex Ten gives out $40k to forecasting projects
      - Many people, including Mathew Yglesias, write predictions for 2022.
      - Eli Lifland writes the re..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"gttxR9Cnzo6MQwJ5c","core":false,"name":"Forecasting Newsletter","slug":"forecasting-newsletter","tagRel":{"_id":"Sgi2WaP9NFympLKAn","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":33,"description":"
        The Forecasting Newsletter is a monthly newsletter about forecasting, with a focus on experimental human judgemental forecasting. It was launched in early 2020.
        Further reading
        Sempere, Nuño (2020)..."},{"_id":"aJnrnnobcBNWRsfAw","core":true,"name":"Forecasting","slug":"forecasting","tagRel":{"_id":"zNMNWvA3h3YcWd58f","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":2078,"description":"
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        This document contains a series of highlights about forecasting in 2020 which I have gathered after 10 months of writing a forecasting newsletter. I'll write one or two paragraphs for each point, and then list ideas which interested readers can follow up on. As such, this piece can be read either as an accessible superficial summary, as an index of pointers, or or as a resource for later years—a snapshot of what was happening in 2020. EAs will particularly be interested in sections II, IV and..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"gttxR9Cnzo6MQwJ5c","core":false,"name":"Forecasting Newsletter","slug":"forecasting-newsletter","tagRel":{"_id":"6oTqnmGqcTfvEBAMd","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":33,"description":"
        The Forecasting Newsletter is a monthly newsletter about forecasting, with a focus on experimental human judgemental forecasting. It was launched in early 2020.
        Further reading
        Sempere, Nuño (2020)..."},{"_id":"aJnrnnobcBNWRsfAw","core":true,"name":"Forecasting","slug":"forecasting","tagRel":{"_id":"HvvJ56Ma7wwFWw8YK","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":2078,"description":"
        Forecasting is an important tool for improving the future, because good forecasts and estimates can help us appropriately plan interventions and assess risks. Over the past several decades there has been significant research and investment in forecasting and estimation techniques, tools, and organizations. This continues to be a..."}]},{"_id":"TDssNnJsZmiLkhzC4","slug":"forecasting-newsletter-may-2020","title":"Forecasting Newsletter: May 2020.","url":null,"baseScore":35,"voteCount":16,"commentCount":3,"postedAt":"2020-05-31T12:35:36.863Z","curatedDate":null,"frontpageDate":"2020-05-31T15:17:12.214Z","draft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":null,"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":"https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/Forecasting/electoral_college_predictit.png","readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2020-06-05T21:26:26.501Z","sharingSettings":null,"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"YRCdk7cvPT6pyiph9","slug":"nunosempere","displayName":"NunoSempere","username":"NunoSempere","createdAt":"2018-11-15T15:52:18.347Z","profileImageId":"Profile/k878ddoduabhtngbawob","karma":13987,"jobTitle":"Director, Head of Foresight","organization":"Sentinel","postCount":107,"commentCount":1294,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":"$80"},"contents":{"wordCount":6004,"htmlHighlight":"
        A forecasting digest with a focus on experimental forecasting. The newsletter itself is experimental, but there will be at least four more iterations. Feel free to use this post as a forecasting open thread; feedback is welcome.
        \n
        \n
        You can sign up here.
        \n
        You can also see this post on LessWrong..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"gttxR9Cnzo6MQwJ5c","core":false,"name":"Forecasting Newsletter","slug":"forecasting-newsletter","tagRel":{"_id":"KyhfnemC2BziC2bct","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":33,"description":"
        The Forecasting Newsletter is a monthly newsletter about forecasting, with a focus on experimental human judgemental forecasting. It was launched in early 2020.
        Further reading
        Sempere, Nuño (2020)..."},{"_id":"aJnrnnobcBNWRsfAw","core":true,"name":"Forecasting","slug":"forecasting","tagRel":{"_id":"u769rYShJ8jpK3H84","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":2078,"description":"
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        Highlights
        \n
        \n
        Facebook's Forecast now out of out of beta.
        \n
        British Minister and experts give probabilistic predictions of the chance of a Brexit deal.
        \n
        CSET/Foretell publishes an..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"gttxR9Cnzo6MQwJ5c","core":false,"name":"Forecasting Newsletter","slug":"forecasting-newsletter","tagRel":{"_id":"3NgJh8osyb98NAhfW","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":33,"description":"
        The Forecasting Newsletter is a monthly newsletter about forecasting, with a focus on experimental human judgemental forecasting. It was launched in early 2020.
        Further reading
        Sempere, Nuño (2020)..."},{"_id":"aJnrnnobcBNWRsfAw","core":true,"name":"Forecasting","slug":"forecasting","tagRel":{"_id":"fpSAyXk3iKnRfRuLy","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":2078,"description":"
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        Highlights
        \n
        \n
        DeepMind claims a major breakthrough in protein folding.
        \n
        OPEC forecasts slower growth
        \n
        Gnosis announces futarchy experiment
        \n
        \n
        Index
        \n
        \n..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"gttxR9Cnzo6MQwJ5c","core":false,"name":"Forecasting Newsletter","slug":"forecasting-newsletter","tagRel":{"_id":"xST4jTisAs5KqTMtd","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":33,"description":"
        The Forecasting Newsletter is a monthly newsletter about forecasting, with a focus on experimental human judgemental forecasting. It was launched in early 2020.
        Further reading
        Sempere, Nuño (2020)..."},{"_id":"aJnrnnobcBNWRsfAw","core":true,"name":"Forecasting","slug":"forecasting","tagRel":{"_id":"aWb9AvSzPQeBrGhbc","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":2078,"description":"
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        Highlights
        Metaculus forecaster warns about boasting about non-existent forecasting track records
        Nick Bosse and others release a comprehensive R package for scoring forecasts
        Open Philanthropy is requesting..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"gttxR9Cnzo6MQwJ5c","core":false,"name":"Forecasting Newsletter","slug":"forecasting-newsletter","tagRel":{"_id":"LCA4TzAdLSShhrk9F","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":33,"description":"
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        Further reading
        Sempere, Nuño (2020)..."},{"_id":"aJnrnnobcBNWRsfAw","core":true,"name":"Forecasting","slug":"forecasting","tagRel":{"_id":"wbbTh3ttn6gkRKreB","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":2078,"description":"
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        Highlights
        \n
        \n
        Social Science Prediction Platform launches.
        \n
        Ioannidis and Taleb discuss optimal response to COVID-19.
        \n
        Report tries to foresee the (potentially quite high) dividends of conflict prevention from 2020 to 2030.
        \n
        ..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"gttxR9Cnzo6MQwJ5c","core":false,"name":"Forecasting Newsletter","slug":"forecasting-newsletter","tagRel":{"_id":"ce4BoHuMbSrrRCJ4P","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":33,"description":"
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        Further reading
        Sempere, Nuño (2020)..."},{"_id":"aJnrnnobcBNWRsfAw","core":true,"name":"Forecasting","slug":"forecasting","tagRel":{"_id":"LGbSujFAhSdgyyWEo","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":2078,"description":"
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        Highlights
        PredictIt has lost CFTC approval
        Metaculus gets $5M grant from Open Philanthropy
        Indian prediction market startup Better Opinions rai..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"X8jpxbG3xDQXCwLos","core":false,"name":"Newsletters","slug":"newsletters","tagRel":{"_id":"8hqhnRDXZpTSdoJaY","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":233,"description":"
        Further reading
        Gertler, Aaron (2019) List of EA-related email newsletters, Effective Altruism Forum, October 9.
        A list of newsletters related to effective altruism. See the comments for additions and updates...."},{"_id":"gttxR9Cnzo6MQwJ5c","core":false,"name":"Forecasting Newsletter","slug":"forecasting-newsletter","tagRel":{"_id":"o7zSegFS8vGYhwfm9","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":33,"description":"
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        Highlights
        CFTC asking for public comments about allowing Kalshi to phagocytize PredictIt’s niche
        $25k tournament by Richard Hanania on Manifold Markets.
        pastcasting.com allows users t..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"gttxR9Cnzo6MQwJ5c","core":false,"name":"Forecasting Newsletter","slug":"forecasting-newsletter","tagRel":{"_id":"2tCuFTaTvXfv5M9qy","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":33,"description":"
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        Manifold Markets is a play money prediction market with user-created questions. The play money can be redeemed as a charitable donation.
        Tutorial
        A video tutorial is also available..."},{"_id":"RhWCRXjTagDpLk2L5","core":false,"name":"Prediction markets","slug":"prediction-markets","tagRel":{"_id":"jfNSpFaDQP5KGzSFs","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":86,"description":"
        Prediction markets (also known as information markets and idea futures) are markets for trading contracts about future events.
        Further reading
        Hanson, Robin (1995) Could gambling save science? Encouraging an honest consensus,..."},{"_id":"aJnrnnobcBNWRsfAw","core":true,"name":"Forecasting","slug":"forecasting","tagRel":{"_id":"ETRHW5QWSHYxS27gi","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":2078,"description":"
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Further reading

Forecasting Newsletter. June 2020.

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Index

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Tutorial

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