It looks like we had a pretty massive bot attack last night, with over 600 accounts logging in and messaging users about an iPad scam. Please don't click on any of their links. The scam looks like this:
We'll remove the accounts, and karma-gate messaging to 10 karma so that this cannot happen again. Sorry everyone - and thanks so much to everyone who reported this. I can't respond to all of you, but thank you.
In EA, people use the word "counterfactual" in a non-standard way, but I've never heard this discussed or pointed out. E.g. Jeff writes,
Say I offer to make a counterfactual donation of $50 to the Against Malaria Foundation (AMF) if you do a thing; which of the following are ok for me to do if you don't?
But outside of the community, "counterfactual" means "didn't happen". I think the word "causal" is closest in meaning to how we use "counterfactual," though it doesn't work in this case.
(In this case, I think the standard English way of communicating the idea is "Say I offer to make a donation of $50 to AMF only if you do a thing...")
Applications are now open for TARA Round 2 2026!
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Strong upvote - too many people see CEA as an authority source on everything EA, rather than a bunch of staff the EA community pays for to do the safe, repeatable stuff.
I'm excited to see this happen! Some welfare tech ideas seem really promising, and I think this is clearly a promising project — it's great that it's happening.
My biggest areas of uncertainty about welfare tech (which overlap with some you flagged and some of which apply to only some technologies):
Thanks so much for doing this! Seems like a great thing to try, and exciting to see the technology that will come out of it!
Hi James! There's actually a variety of EA-aligned charities in those areas. Some that come to mind:
They all have their own theories as to why they might be unusually effective.
As for why:
Bentham’s Bulldog has published a series of pieces on the Save Our Bacon Act, urging people to call and email their senators, donate, and spread the word.
Hey thanks. Re Luna amendment, wasn't there an additional Luna amendment that was trying to remove the SOB provision that died (even though the pesticide one went through).
You're right about 2, fixed.
Re 3, waiting to hear back on more.
In four days (July 11, 12-4pm), about ~200 of us (event link), including 13 different groups, will be marching on OpenAI, Anthropic and Google in SF asking the CEOs to commit to stop developing more powerful models if every other major AI company (and China) does the same. We're calling this The AI Protest (theprotest.ai).
We're gonna have some of the speakers from last time (Nate Soares (MIRI), David Krueger (Evitable), Will Fithian (Berkeley Professor)) but also try to get folks from different groups part of the coalition speaking too.
As Scott Alexander puts it: "Participants are about half from our conspiracy and half from random anti-data-center-type groups, which I think is how this basically has to work, so don’t be surprised if you run into the latter."
On why we're doing this, see:
Subtitle: How to Ride Without Losing Your Mind
Five years ago, Ajeya Cotra memorably described Effective Altruist reasoning as a “train to crazy town”—with longtermists in particular staying on the train for longer than their nearterm-focused colleagues. It’s not a perfect metaphor, but what I suspect resonates for a lot of people is the sense that EA-style abstract reasoning can push you in...
There’s a descriptive and normative component to your observation.
I’d argue that many donors are surprisingly diversified given direct application of philosophical theory, yes. I’d say the ultimate decision makers are donors, not eg evaluators.
Does said theory predict well what they do? No. Should it? I’m not sure, this is not a theory designed to describe what actors that call themselves altruistic do.
Does it prescribe what they should do? Possibly, but I’d argue diversification is both good and you need another mechanism than diminishing returns to justify it.
(Tbf the animal space is probably where you are most likely to hit diminishing returns among EA cause areas right now. (If you’re a ~ billionaire))
Yeah, that's an interesting challenge. One idea that makes sense to me is to split into different sub-agents when you feel like there's an in-principle tension or tradeoff between different kinds of values. For example, in a previous post I suggested different "buckets" for the broad goals of (i) pure suffering reduction, (ii) reliable global capacity growth, and (iii) high-impact long-shots. Lots of different concrete "causes" might compete within each philosophical bucket, but I wouldn't be tempted to break out a fourth bucket unless I felt like there was a deeper principle at stake (e.g. if I thought that human vs animal pure suffering reduction might be meaningfully different).
(There's a separate question of how to decide what to investigate within each bucket, which is also tricky and I'm afraid I don't have anything helpful to add there. In practice I mostly just defer to people I at least vaguely trust who seem to have looked into the area in greater depth. But as a community, we obviously benefit from people who are willing to do the hard work of novel investigations!)
Note for the EA Forum: I write fiction sometimes in my spare time (here if you're interested). Here's one I’ve been working on for quite a while, which is also the first that has anything to do with EA. It’s a story about mirror biology, with a bit of a magical framing. Despite the magic, the science is as accurate as I can make it. Specifically - I ta... |
Hello! I'm Justin Portela. I got hired by GWWC to make YouTube videos after AI in Context did such a kickass job.
My channel is using that same cinematic, high-production value beauty to talk about everything in the EA universe that isn't AI.
In 2023, Nick Humphrey published his book Sentience: The invention of consciousness (S:TIOC). In this book he proposed a theory of consciousness that implies, he says, that only mammals and birds have any kind of internal awareness.
[EDIT: This post aims to summarize that book. Nick Humphrey has written a précis, a summary, of his own book on aeon here, and has done...
Other than argue about it, probably not much, assuming functionalism and materialism/physicalism of some kind that's compatible with artificial sentience.
You may be interested in the article A science of chimeras? The implications of illusionism for non-human consciousness research. The abstract is below.
Illusionism states that phenomenal consciousness does not exist, even though it seems to exist. While illusionism is controversial, it is a serious contender among theories of consciousness. We argue that it has substantial and non-trivial implications for non-human consciousness research (NHCR), particularly for the study of the distribution of phenomenal consciousness across beings. If illusionism is true, NHCR can be pursued if conceptualized as investigating the distribution of quasi-phenomenal consciousness, i.e. the states which are misrepresented as phenomenally conscious in humans. However, we argue that knowing the distribution of quasi-phenomenal consciousness is not highly informative. For this reason, illusionism suggests that some approaches to NHCR should be preferred over others. Approaches which focus on features that provide valuable information about non-human cognition independently of their supposed relation to consciousness retain much of their value if illusionism is true. We propose a “zombie test” and five specific heuristics to help identifying such features. Consequently, empirical researchers who take illusionism seriously gain a reason to prioritize some methodological approaches over others.
Current ethical benchmarks leave a trail of breadcrumbs. Instead, they should hide a needle in a haystack.
Crossposted from the Animal Welfare Alignment Newsletter on Substack. Thanks to @Lukas Gebhard for thorough feedback.
Bec...
This is a follow-up to my (now fairly outdated) August 2025 post.
This post contains all the AI safety research and project ideas I've had in the past 10 months which I think could be high impact. I’m sharing them in case any are helpful or generative for others. I don’t plan to pursue most of these myself as there are just too many for m...
It seems like, in context to EA, if you're interested in helping people at a global scale (and not focused on global catastrophic risks), you're probably focused on global health.
I am wondering: Is there a clear reason EAs focus on global health over other cause areas such as education, women's rights, economic growth, democracy, corruption, international relations, and other broad improvements to society?
Like, has there been any kind of rigorous research that suggests we should...
You may be interested to know that GiveWell didn’t start out as a GHD evaluator. The initial idea was to evaluate many different cause areas, including economic opportunity and education. But I think what happened is that once they had compiled the research, donors saw that the GHD stuff was like 10,000× more cost effective, so the other cause areas didn’t attract much money moved and in 2012 they shut the other cause areas down. 2009 was the year GiveWell discovered AMF, and other than that, their 2009 top charities list is pretty unrecognizable.
In four days (July 11, 12-4pm), about ~200 of us (event link), including 13 different groups, will be marching on OpenAI, Anthropic and Google in SF asking the CEOs to commit to stop developing more powerful models if every other major AI company (and China) does the same. We're calling this The AI Protest (theprotest.ai).
We're gonna have some of the speakers from last time (Nate Soares (MIRI), David Krueger (Evitable), Will Fithian (Berkeley Professor)) but also try to get folks from different groups part of the coalition speaking too.
As Scott Alexander puts it: "Participants are about half from our conspiracy and half from random anti-data-center-type groups, which I think is how this basically has to work, so don’t be surprised if you run into the latter."
On why we're doing this, see: