Open and Welcome Thread: January 2021

Hi, introducing myself :)

I'm an aspiring Israeli EA and fairly new to the forum. I'm doing my master's in machine learning and aiming to work in AI algorithms/safety/ethics (preferably all of them). Not really sure how to get there, so I'd be happy to talk to anyone who has advice.

I joined EA about 2-3 years ago, and I'm enthusiastic about our activity, though I think we should sometimes take our numerical calculations and moral framework with more humility. I volunteer in some projects in the Israeli community.

I am chronically ill, which I usually wouldn't tell someone in an introduction, but I feel discussion and representation of how disabled and chronically ill people can find their place in the EA community is lacking. Anyone who has thoughts on the matter, or wants to discuss personal experiences, is welcome to talk about this.

I am also a classical pianist, a great vegan cook, a chili pepper grower,  an amateur linguist and a founding member of NWWC (which you may not know about yet. spoilers!)

Hello there,  just introducing myself (also kinda a xpost from reddit) :)

My name is Aaron, and I'm an senior in high school from Arizona. I discovered the EA rabbit hole while parsing through Applied Divinity Studies over winter break; it's super amazing and humbling to see yall smart people come together to find efficient ways to make the world better.

I'm fairly set on studying computer science in college because it fits the criteria of something that i'm relatively interested in/have a bit of experience in/pays well. I like to have (ever changing and sometimes unrealistic) long term goals about what I want to do in my life, and I was pretty sold on the idea of becoming a software engineer in the bay, living below my means, and end up retiring early in a low cost of living area to spend my time volunteering and doing things that I really wanna do in life.

When I discovered EA I was really interested in the idea of working in AI Safety, which 80000 hours categorizes as one of the most urgent global issue to work on. I know virtually nothing about machine learning or artificial intelligence, but its one of the things I wanna learn about now that my  senioritis is kicking into full gear! I love statistics and thinking about the implications of tech on society and public policy, so it seems like something i'd might be able to contribute towards. I'm also studying linear algebra and multivar this year, which I understand are important mathematical concepts to grasp when studying machine learning. I really don't know anything about this field, however; I just know that AI safety is clearly an important field that EA seems to agree requires more research in, so I'm not sure if it will be a good fit for me until I try it. 

80k hours also writes that potential AI safety researchers should have "strong technical abilities (at the level of a top 10 cs or math phd program globally)", which seems really scary and difficult. I'm graduating at the top of my high school class and I've dabbled in a bit of stuff like AMC and codeforces in high school, but i'm definitely not extremely gifted or talented, nor do I spend a lot of time on these things.

I've read that AI alignment is clearly an urgent global issue that's very talent constrained, but AI itself is a super competitive field which which has way more supply than demand. It seems that the people who work in AI safety are the cream of the crop who graduate as PhDs from the world's best universities, dedicating many years to solve these really important questions. I think that if I work hard enough in college, I might be able to contribute in such an effective way. However, I'm not sure if I'm willing to commit that much of my life to enter such a competitive field, when I could be making much more in the industry and potentially retire early and volunteer my time in other ways/earn to give within the EA community. I'm also wondering how much experience one needs in order to effectively contribute within AI safety; this article seems to suggest that with enough dedication, someone who comes from a competitive role in industry and doesn't have a PhD can still impact the field in a positive way.

In addition, I'm super passionate about US elections analysis; I love reading stuff like the NYT Upshot/Nate Cohn/Dave Wasserman and learning about voting patterns and elections forecasting and demography; I was wondering if there is anybody in EA who shares similar interests, and whether there is any EA-related paths that relate to voting/elections/democracy in the US.

Finally, I'm also applying to college this year, and I was wondering if there are any specific universities which have strong EA communities. I've applied to most of the UCs, ASU, U of A, and Cal Poly so I'm specifically wondering about those.

Thanks so much for reading this far down a post by a random high schooler :) Someone on the EA subreddit told me that I shouldn't be this worried about my future and that I don't need to make these decisions right now, but I'm honestly really worried for what the future holds for our world and excited for how I might be able to do something about it, so I hope that I can receive a bit of advice on how to best be a member of the EA community in the future. Looking through all the stuff that happens within the community is really inspiring and humbling, and I'm really excited to hearing your advice. Thanks!

It seems Considering Considerateness: Why communities of do-gooders should be exceptionally considerate is not as visible now because CEA removed "Our current thinking" (or something) from their webpage and the essay is not linked e.g. at https://www.effectivealtruism.org/resources/. So I want to highlight it as I liked it a lot a few years ago.

He passed away four years ago this month — within a day of Derek Parfit — but I think John Berger's writing and BBC documentaries could resonate with many in EA who might not have had a chance to come across Berger.  Below are a few links in case others might find his  work on migrant workers, gender inequality, and animal welfare thought-provoking.

1. Segment of his Ways of Seeing BBC program focused on inequality (starting at 22:00).

2. Excerpt from his New Yorker obituary:

...Hence one of the most striking aphorisms in “Brief as Photos”: “What we mourn for the dead is the loss of their hopes.”

Hope, Berger proposed, is what we counterpoise to the essential revelation of history—that we’ll decline, that we’ll die. “To decide to engage oneself in History requires, even when the decision is a desperate one, hope,” he writes in “Bento’s Sketchbook,” one of his last volumes. Hope names a commitment to change the world, against the fact of finitude. It was hope, I think, that allowed Berger to write so beautifully about death without eliding the tragedy of it...

Berger always returned to the possibility of proximity, seeking to cross the distances that divide us. Throughout his work, every way of seeing starts with a look, and every look promises to become a touch—fumbling hands reaching across the void. The thought of death brings us back to the body, calling on us to act, with and for one another.

3. Excerpt from his New York Times obituary.

The year 1972 was Mr. Berger’s most prolific, with “Ways of Seeing” and the publication of his most critically acclaimed novel, “G.," ...which was awarded the Booker Prize. (Characteristically, Mr. Berger criticized the company that sponsored the prize, saying that it exploited Caribbean workers, and announced that he would split his winnings with the Black Panthers.)

In 1974, when his critical influence was probably at its height in Britain, he left London for Paris and then Geneva. He later decided to leave cities altogether, moving to a remote peasant community, Quincy, in the French Alps, where he lived with his wife, Beverly Bancroft, who died in 2013, and their son, Yves. (Besides his son, he is survived by another son, Jacob, and a daughter, Katya, from a previous marriage.)

In the Alps, where he learned to raise cattle, he wrote a trilogy of unconventional books called “Into Their Labors” — comminglings of short story, poetry and essay — examining the migration of peasants away from their traditions and into cities.

He also successfully dabbled in screenwriting, collaborating with the director Alain Tanner on three films, including the critically praised “Jonah Who Will Be 25 in the Year 2000” (1976) about a group of radical idealists trying to stay true to their principles.

Hello everyone, this post is yet another introduction. 

My name is Rasmus, and I am one of the co-founders of Effective Altruism Denmark. 

I have been involved in EA for quite some time now, I just somehow never got around to being very active in the forum. However, as I will be defending my thesis in 6 days from now I thought now would be as good a time as any to start. 

Right now, one of the things I care about is trying to raise the donation norm in Denmark. As such, we are trying to copy the success of Effective Altruism Norway, by trying to raise funds for GiveWell recommended charities by promoting their ideas and research to a Danish audience. 

In the meantime, and to keep myself accountable, I am documenting our progress detailing every decision as well as mistake we make. Hopefully, at some point, I will have time to write about our learnings here in the forums. 

Hello everyone, I've been following EA for around a year, and attended the 2020 Virtual EA Global Conference. I am a 23 y/o Business Management and Geography graduate from the University of Exeter, and I was hoping by attending the conference I would meet people to become more involved in EA or help with my job search, but neither happened. 

I'm currently trying to get work in journalism or communications at an NGO/charity. I have some experience in sports journalism, but I'm keen on using my skills to try and achieve a more positive impact on the world. The Geography aspect of my degree was human-oriented rather than environmental; I studied social and political geography, global urban futures etc. (which isn't to say I'm not interested in more environmental topics).

What do people think about making it possible to conduct polls on the forum? This could be an easy way to gauge what EAs (or at least those who engage on this forum) think about certain issues. 

Hello all, I've known about Effective Altruism for years, but have decided it’s time to get involved.

I apologize ahead of time for my overall lack of knowledge about the breadth of ideas and suggestions that are entertained, But I personally know that thick skins and good faith arguments can produced refined concepts. As any group who has sat down and hammered out homebrew dnd rules can attest. (a joke and also not a joke) 

I have taken a short, surely inadequate, I preeminently grant, examination of some core ideas and I believe my suggestion is worth at least, an explanation based dismissal. With that I offer my case for an Effective Altruism program.  

I seek to combat climate change, extreme poverty, and eventually a myriad of other dire situations, under a single framework.

step 1. Fund 6 million usd

2.  Install solar panels and home battery systems on residences and apartments whose occupants, have applied for and been accepted into the program. One county/region at a time. I'm arguing the concept, but I'll provide a figure as a starting point to be argued up or down.  Per home cost estimated at $35,000-$70,000. ($20,000 for 30 kWh panel and $1,000 per battery 1kWh capacity. $5,000 per install) (2 panels and 25kHw battery capacity for 4-person home)

3. Sell the solar electricity to the program participants, at a subsidized rate of up to "half off" of their current local kWh price. 

4. In addition to this source of income, the panels will also sell excess solar energy back to the grid, after filling the attached battery for the day.

5. These funds can be directed entirely to the desired effective relief, on a monthly basis. Marketing the program to potential residents could be based on the intended charity to increase willingness to participate with lower subsidies for themselves, and could also generate more engaged effective altruism members.

6. Calculating total proceeds and overall impact: no expertise here, but I can surmise some of the factors. Including, but probably not limited to, Local, current and projected, kWh price (this is the big one and is seemingly readily available info), local climate, the amount of the solar energy subsidy offered, investment dispersal between panels and batteries, and ensuring that those being provided solar energy, were previously receiving polluting energy. 

7.Again, I'll stake a starting figure for sake of encouraging discourse, from those with greater understanding. After subsidies and assuming 15 cents per kWh(expensive estimation for the states), I’ll say 300,000 usd per year. I'm not showing my math here cause I didn't do any worth writing down. concept here.

8. By virtue of the axiom "a penny saved is a penny earned" this program seems to me, to be virulent in a positive way. Again, sorry if these arguments have been covered, I humbly accept all good faith arguments and positions. 

"A carbon molecule not released into the atmosphere, that would have been released without your mitigation is a carbon molecule removed from the atmosphere.”

9. Calculate the dollar value of 1 carbon molecule removed from the atmosphere. 

10. factor that into the long-term estimates, of the value of this program.

Honest, good faith question, does this idea fit with longtermism? 

I know persuasion isn't important here, but I offer these heart string tugs to suggest that this program could be used to create an informed and engaged population, who go on to perpetuate similar good work. If I could speak to those suffering from plights, great and small, I would offer this statement, in humility for all those with power.

"I wish I could say that we’re just now dropping the ball, on short term relief, to invest in a system that will hold the ball for generations to come, but the truth is we haven’t ever held the ball, in a truly adequate way. I ask forgiveness on the world’s behalf as we diligently plant the seeds of prosperity, that will lift up all peoples, given time to bear fruit.”

AI Safety Support are doing an AI Safety Carers Bottleneck survay. 

Please help us spread it around. 
We want responses from anyone who are currently doing AI Safety work, or would like to do so in the future.

It only takes 5-20 minutes to answer (these are empirical numbers).
https://www.guidedtrack.com/programs/n8cydtu/run

Hi I'm new! I'm 25 years old and from New York. I like to run in the morning and go to bed early.I look after myself and like to go hiking if I have free time. I will be glad to communicate and exchange experience!