Wiblin does not explain where his estimate of ‘hundreds of billions of dollars’ of revenue comes from, but it reads to me like pure marketing for potential investors

You quote him as observing that their revenue tripled over the past 3 months, and some basic math tells us that another ~tripling gets them to $100B.

I'm in favor of rigor and would also have preferred him to share a more detailed model, but "pure marketing for potential investors" seems like an unfair characterization of a "predict trends will continue unchanged" forecast.

Hmm, but in a success without dignity world making interpretability a bit better, or governments a bit more interested, is relevant, right? 

Maybe, but "if EA had just stuck to Earning To Give and malaria nets and decaging chickens then the impact would have been greater" doesn't clearly follow. Malaria nets look a lot worse if we all die in a few years from AI anyway, and cage free pledges have ~0 value if humanity ends before the pledge can be fulfilled. 

Are you asking just about recent graduates, or all graduates?

Your conflict of interest here feels enormous (even if declared) and its hard to read this and not feel like it might be a bid to directly protect your own interests by asking others to not step into your turf here as a lobbyist.

I think you could also read it as him attempting to solve the problem he's describing. 

I would be keen to hear if you think you have any solutions to this birifuction.

Huh, this feels like prime EA territory to me. We need disagreement so that people can engage in key EA activities like "making persnickety critiques of footnote #237 on someone's 10k word forum post."

The case for EA feels much weaker to me if we are all confident that X is the best thing to do - then you should just do X and not worry about cause prio etc.

I'm sorry you had to go through this, Fran. 

Congrats to everyone who worked on this!

Thanks for doing this. This question is marked as required but I think should either be optional or have a "none" option: