I don't think CEA has a public theory of change, it just has a strategy. If I were to recreate its theory of change based on what I know of the org, it'd have three target groups:
1. Non-EAs
2. Organisers
3. Existing members of the community
Per target group, I'd say it has the following main activities:
* Targeting non-EAs, it does comms and education (the VP programme).
* Targeting organisers, you have the work of the groups team.
* Targeting existing members, you have the events team, the forum team, and community health.
Per target group, these activities are aiming for the following short-term outcomes:
* Targeting non-EAs, it doesn't aim to raise awareness of EA, but instead, it aims to ensure people have an accurate understanding of what EA is.
* Targeting organisers, it aims to improve their ability to organise.
* Targeting existing members, it aims to improve information flow (through EAG(x) events, the forum, newsletters, etc.) and maintain a healthy culture (through community health work).
If you're interested, you can see EA Netherland's theory of change here.