A new article went viral on Twitter today: Nan Ransohoff's "The Third Wave of American Philanthropy" (link). Worth reading first.
Nan is right about the shape of what's coming: hundreds of billions in new philanthropic capital, no ecosystem yet to absorb it, and a shortage of builders and organizations. I very much agree with that sentiment and the direction. More money, more people willing to start things, more urgency.
But the conclusion I draw is a little different. The new philanthropic wave shouldn’t go hunting for problems in completely new places: it should look harder within one it already named and set aside, within an all-encompassing field that history reduced to a single term too small to carry its gravity.
Far more of the new philanthropic wave should go to helping animals. It should go to the trillions of lives in all their variety and multitude. “Animal welfare” isn’t one solved issue to cross off: it’s where most of the sentience and suffering is. It covers the vast majority of moral patients, all of them suffering gravely in every corner of the world. The future is still incredibly grim; AI could impose even more suffering if we don’t get this right.
Animals are not one issue
EAs recognized the importance of animal suffering – factory farming, wild animal suffering – long before the rest of the world, which still has not really recognized its importance. That was the insight. And then, somehow, we just decided to group it all as one single issue. One moral cause area.
Chickens, fish, pigs, shrimp, insects… farmed and wild. Nonhuman animals are the most populous category of moral patients by orders of magnitude. Yet we have collapsed all of it into a single line item that competes for attention with everything else as if it were just one intervention among many.
The problems are staring right at us
This could be the path we go down in the name of flourishing: we simply lower the bar on cost-effectiveness. We go looking everywhere for things to do, finding problems to solve, manufacturing causes to fund. But are those really the best use of a once-in-a-generation wave of capital and talent?
If we still take scale and cost-effectiveness seriously, we have so, so many problems staring right at us. They just happen not to be happening to humans.
What we need is a lot more people working on:
Just some examples, and the list goes on and on and on. I'm listing these only to make them slightly more granular.
There are a lot more neglected animal populations that no one is doing anything about, and we should be looking for those problems (I left my job recently to do exactly this). A lot of new effort should go toward finding new ways to help all those neglected beings.
AI x Animals
Contrary to popular belief, many "animal people" in EA recognize just as much that the most critical work today lies in making sure AI goes well. But while it is easy to appreciate AI's grave implications, what is even more alarming is something the discourse rarely touches: AI's implications for animals might still be graver.
We could flourish while the moral atrocity that is factory farming is left intact, or even expanded by AI. Trillions of sentient lives could continue suffering completely unheeded as they stay almost entirely outside the moral circle.
Yet anything in that AI × animals intersection gets filed, yet again, under "animals."
"AI x animals" is a sub-bucket of a sub-bucket, rather than treated as central to the long-term future we keep saying we care about. If we are serious about a future with less suffering, then what AI entrenches or prevents for animals is not a footnote to that future. It may be most of it.
Stop looking past them
Under any reasonable moral weight model, animal consciousness and suffering far trump that of humans - today and very possibly long into the future.
Beyond making sure we don’t all die, stopping animal suffering should be our first priority. We should address this before moving on to civics, art, and flourishing.
The problems are staring right at us, and we continue to look past them. And now, with all the new energy pointed at finding new problems to solve, we are about to look past them harder, with more money and more talent than ever. Let’s not.
Megaprojects for animals (or an updated version perhaps, this list being from 2022) seems more pertinent than ever.
matthes' recommendation to "take ownership of the entire evidence pipeline" seems more plausible than ever in this context:
@Fai had some excellent and prescient ideas. Anything new come to mind, Fai?
Thanks for asking, here are some ideas I personally wish funders would consider at least investigating. The epistemic status of some of these ideas is not great, and I never attempted any robust analysis on the expected values of these potential interventions/causes, but I hope they are worth investigating.
Thanks Fai. The most farmed fish on earth is likely feeder fish for mandarin fish, numbered in the trillions (~1B mandarin fish x fed 2-4k feeder fish each). We’re working on it at Myrias.
Yes feeder fish for mandarin fish is a big category. But my understanding is that many species' fry are used, including pond loaches (rarely though, I believe). I am not sure the majority of them are one species (i.e. mud carp).
Also, since we need to count fry to come up with a few trillion figure for feeder fish for mandarin fish, we also need to count pond loach numbers by the fry stage. Estimates of pond loach survival rates from fry to sellable fish vary widely, from 2% to 10%. Given that the number of pond loach slaughtered each year is roughly 10B, that's ~100B-500B pond loaches slaughtered each year.
Yeah, maybe mud carp or some other species is no.1, but I am guessing it is also possible pond loach is still no.1 or close.
Yeah, from what I heard it’s mostly mud carps (土鲮), which are likely in the trillions. FWIW, pond loaches contain many different species too. Anyhow, both very numerous and neglected, deserving of some serious effort.
Yes, thanks for the reminder. I have long (incorrectly) thought pond loach is just one species, until Ryan pointed out that there are at least 4 (but seems like only two are commercially popular).
From what I learned, even though mud carp should be the biggest used fry for mandarin fish feed, many other species such as other carps and tilapia are also used in significant amounts. But in terms of cause priortization/conceptualization, grouping them together makes perfect sense!
Nudge to spend another hour on this and turn it into a post?
Thanks for the nudge! I have something really important coming up in July, possibly the most important thing I might do so far in my career. I will consider after that. Feel free to nudge me again in August!
Wow very cool, best of luck!
Thanks, Fai. I like your ideas. Virtual Control Groups and LLM-agents are especially interesting to me right now. I want to look into the state of digital twins for various animals. This could not only obviate some animal testing, but also facilitate better translational medicine between humans, farmed animals, companion animals, and wild animals. It might also help us model levels of suffering and welfare improvement associated with interventions like novel pesticides, without the need for physical experimentation. Models would probably mostly cover individual physiology, but could also model population dynamics on farms or in the wild. Aware of anything on these fronts?
Also, your comment on pond loaches reminded me of our ~2021 discussions around animals in the long term future in space. I am planning on revisiting some of those topics.