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Even with attempts to prevent it, I think annual risk of value drift for me is greater than the annual expected real return on equities, which tends to defeat the usual argument for giving later.  Another exercise I've done occasionally is to look at my donations from say 5-10 years ago and muse on whether I would rather have invested the money and given now. So far that hasn't been close to true, and that's in spite of an impressive bull market in stocks over the last decade. Money was just so much more of an issue back then. I thought this from Will MacAskill was a good reflection on just how money-constrained things were 'in the old days', for those who didn't see it: Of course the directly relevant question is: When I look back on this relatively abundant period in 2034, will I feel the same way? I honestly don't know, realistically the biggest factors will be what Good Ventures decides to do with their money and how well EA attracts other money. 
It's either my 2014 donations to 80k or my 2015 donations to Charity Science, which eventually evolved into AIM. Both orgs were pretty small at the time, from memory we were >15% of their budgets in those years.
This really depends how broadly I define things; does reading the EA Forum count? In terms of time that feels like it's being pretty directly spent on deciding, my sense is ~50 hours per year. That's roughly evenly split between checking whether the considerations that inform my cause prioritisaition have changed - e.g. has a big new funder moved into a space - and evaluating individual opportunities.  I touched on the evaluation question in a couple of other answers. 
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Reflections on Two Years at EA Germany I'm stepping down this week after two years as co-director of EA Germany. While I deeply valued the team and helped build successful structures, I stayed too long when my core values and personal fit no longer aligned. When I joined EAD, I approached it like the other organisations I’ve worked with, planning on staying 5-10 years to create stability during growth and change. My co-director, Sarah, and I aimed to grow EAD quickly and sustainably. But the FTX collapse hit just as I started in November 2022, and the dream of expanding the team disappeared. This wasn’t the only challenge. I treated EAD as a single organisation rather than part of a global ecosystem where impact shouldn’t be geographically contained. I slipped into a “soldier mindset,” focused on proving EAD’s local value instead of prioritising international scalability or considering where I could provide the most impact. By the end of my first year, I could see that I’d reached the end of what I was best at and passionate about. The organisation was running well, and my full-time input wasn’t needed anymore. But I stayed—because I felt so good with the team, because of my long-term commitment, and because I hoped we’d find a path to grow the organisation within Germany. Meanwhile, I started consulting for Claire Boine at Successif. When she secured new funding to expand, I joined her team part-time. Instead of using this as a chance to leave EAD, I tried to balance both roles—while still running my company, serving as a trustee at EV UK, and mentoring on the side. Looking back, this was my biggest mistake: I didn’t recognise that my counterfactual impact at EAD had become the lowest of all my commitments. Instead of staying true to my value of helping solve the most pressing problems as effectively as possible, I acted out of connection and obligation. This experience has taught me to recognise when to step back and refocus on where my skills, passion, and
@Toby Tremlett🔹 and I will host an EA Forum Team office hours / co-working session in EA Gather this Thursday, Dec 19! We'll be in this pod between 2-3 PM UK time (9-10 AM Eastern Time). Feel free to stop by to ask us questions, work on a Forum post, or just co-work alongside us. :) We may continue hosting these, perhaps for longer slots than just one hour. Let us know in the comments or over DM if you'd like to attend one in the future.
Anthropic's Twitter account was hacked. It's "just" a social media account, but it raises some concerns. Update: the post has just been deleted. They keep the updates on their status page: https://status.anthropic.com/
We just wanted to transparently share that CEA’s University Groups Team is not running two of our historical programs over the next few months: * A University Group Organizer Retreat (UGOR), which was usually run over (northern hemisphere) winter break * Our summer internship, usually run from May - September We think both programs are relatively valuable, but are less aligned with our current vision (of providing value through helping EA university group organizers run better groups) than some of our alternatives. We have made this (difficult!) decision so that we can instead focus on: * Running our Organizer Support Program, a three-week to semester-long mentorship program * Increasing capacity on the team (currently under 3 FTE), including by recruiting a strategy lead for our pilot university work (and building out that work more generally) * Further building out our grantmaking capacity * Potentially piloting new scalable programming * (And more) This decision does not rule out running UGOR or our internship in the future. In fact, we are exploring whether we should run UGOR over (northern hemisphere) summer break, allowing more groups to better prepare for their academic year. We piloted such a retreat as part of our pilot university programming this summer, and that worked well. We aim to continue to transparently share updates such as this one! We are also always open to feedback (including anonymously), especially if you have specific suggestions on what things we should deprioritize to create space for UGOR or the summer internship. 
I note that in some sense I have lost trust that the EA community gives me a clear prioritisation of where to donate. Some clearer statements: * I still think GiveWell does great work * I still generally respect the funding decisions of Open Philanthropy * I still think this forum has a higher standard than most place * It is hard to know exactly how high impact animal welfare funding opportunities interact with x-risk ones * I don't know what the general consensus on the most impactful x-risk funding opportunities are * I don't really know what orgs do all-considered work on this topic. I guess the LTFF? * I am more confused/inattentive and this community is covering a larger set of possible choices so it's harder to track what consensus is