(I work for EA Funds, including EAIF, helping out with public communications among other work. I'm not a grantmaker on EAIF and I'm not responsible for any decision on any specific EAIF grant).
Hi. Thanks for writing this. I appreciate you putting the work in this, even though I strongly disagree with the framing of most of the doc that I feel informed enough to opine on, as well as most of the object-level.
Ultimately, I think the parts of your report about EA Funds are mostly incorrect or substantively misleading, given the best information I have available. But I think it’s possible I’m misunderstanding your position or I don’t have enough context. So please read the following as my own best understanding of the situation, which can definitely be wrong. But first, onto the positives:
- I appreciate that the critical points in the doc are made as technical critiques, rather than paradigmatic ones. Technical critiques are ones that people are actually compelled to respond to, and can actually compel action (rather than just make people feel vaguely bad/smug and don’t compel any change).
- The report has many numerical/quantitative details. In theory, those are easier to falsify.
- The report appears extensive and must have taken a long time to write.
There are also some things the report mentioned that we have also been tracking, and I believe we have substantial room for improvement:
- Our grant evaluation process is still slower than we would like.
- While broadly faster than other comparable funds I’m aware of (see this comment), I still think we have substantial room for improvement.
- Our various subfunds, particularly EAIF, have at points been understaffed and under-capacity.
- While I strongly disagree with the assessment that hiring more grantmakers is “fairly straightforward” (bad calls with grant evaluations are very costly, for reasons including but not limited to insufficient attention to adversarial selection; empirically most EA grantmaking organizations have found it very difficult to hire), I do think on the margin we can do significantly more on hiring.
- Our limited capacity has made it difficult for us to communicate with and/or coordinate with all the other stakeholders in the system, so we’re probably missing out on key high-EV opportunities (eg several of our existing collaborations in AI safety have started later than they counterfactually could have, and we haven’t been able to schedule time to fly to coordinate with folks in London/DC/Netherlands/Sweden.
- One of the reasons I came on to EA Funds full-time is to help communicate with various groups.
Now, onto the disagreements:
Procedurally:
- I was surprised that so much of the views that were ascribed to “EA Funds’ leadership” were from notes taken from a single informal call with the EA Funds project lead, that you did not confirm was okay to be shared publicly.
- They said that they usually explicitly request privacy before quoting them publicly, but are not sure if they did so in this instance.
- They were also surprised that there was a public report out at all.
- My best guess is that there was a misunderstanding that arose from a norm difference, where you come from the expectation that professional meetings are expected to be public unless explicitly stated otherwise, whereas the norm that I (and I think most EAs?) are more used to is that 1-1 meetings are private unless explicitly stated otherwise.
- They also disagree with the characterization of almost all of their comments (will say more below), which I think speaks to the epistemic advantages of confirming before publicly attributing comments made by someone else.
- I’d have found it helpful if you shared a copy of the post before making it public.
- We could’ve corrected most misunderstandings
- If you were too busy for private corrections, I could’ve at least written this response earlier.
- Many things in general were false (more details below). Having a fact-checking process might be useful going forwards.
Substantively:
- When the report quoted “CEA has had to step in and provide support in evaluating EAIF grants for them” I believe this is false or at least substantively misleading.
- The closest thing I can think about is that we ask CEA Comm Health for help in reviewing comm health issues with our grants (which as I understand is part of their explicit job duties and both sides are happy with)”
- It’s possible your source misunderstood the relationship and thought the Comm Health work was supererogatory or accidental?
- We frequently ask technical advisors for advice on project direction in a less institutionalized capacity as well[1]. I think “step in” conveys the wrong understanding, as most of the grant evaluation is still done by the various funds.
- (To confirm this impression, we checked with multiple senior people involved with CEA’s work; however, this was not an exhaustive sweep and it’s definitely possible that my impression is incorrect).
- The closest thing I can think about is that we ask CEA Comm Health for help in reviewing comm health issues with our grants (which as I understand is part of their explicit job duties and both sides are happy with)”
- While it is true that we’re much slower than we would like, it seems very unreasonable to single out EA Funds grantmaking as "unreasonably long" when other grantmakers are as slow or slower.
- See e.g. Abraham Rowe’s comment here.
- “"Not weighing in on LTFF specifically, but from having done a lot of traditional nonprofit fundraising, I'd guess two months is a faster response time than 80% of foundations/institutional funders, and one month is probably faster than like 95%+. My best guess at the average for traditional nonprofit funders is more like 3-6 months. I guess my impression is that even in the worst cases, EA Funds has been operating pretty well above average compared to the traditional nonprofit funding world (though perhaps that isn't the right comparison). Given that LTFF is funding a lot of research, 2 months is almost certainly better than most academic grants.
- My impression from what I think is a pretty large sample of EA funders and grants is also that EA Funds is the fastest turnaround time on average compared to the list you mention [Editor's note: "Open Phil, SFF, Founders Pledge, and Longview"] ([with] exceptions in some cases in both directions for EA Funds and other funders)”
- I also sanity-checked with both Google Search and GPT-4[2]
- Broadly I’m aware that other people on the forum also believes that we’re slow, but I think most people who believe this believe so because:
- We have our own aspirations to be faster, and we try to do so.
- They think from a first-principles perspective that grantmakers “can” be faster.
- We talk about our decisions and process very publicly, and so become more of an easy target for applicants’ grievances.
- But while I understand and sympathize with other people’s frustrations[3], it is probably not factually true that we’re slower in relative terms than other organizations, and it’s odd to single out EA Funds here.
- See e.g. Abraham Rowe’s comment here.
- When your report said, “Critically, the expert reports that another major meta donor found EA Funds leadership frustrating to work with, and so ended up disengaging from further meta grantmaking coordination” my guess is that the quoted position is not true.
- I feel like we’re keeping tabs on all the major donors (OP, SFF, Longview, etc).So I’m not sure who they could possibly be referring to.
- Though I guess it’s possible that there is a major donor that’s so annoyed with us that they made efforts to hide themselves from us so we haven’t even heard about them.
- But I think it’s more likely that the person in question isn’t a major donor.
- To be clear, any donor feeling frustrated with us is regrettable. While it is true that not all donors can or should want to work with us (e.g. due to sufficiently differing cause prioritization or empirical worldviews), it is still regrettable that people have an emotionally frustrating experience.
- I feel like we’re keeping tabs on all the major donors (OP, SFF, Longview, etc).So I’m not sure who they could possibly be referring to.
- Your report says that EA Funds leadership was “strongly dismissing the value of prioritization research, where other grantmakers generally expressed higher uncertainty”, but this is false.
- I want to be clear that EA Funds has historically been, and currently is, quite positive on cause prioritization in general (though of course specific work may be lower quality, or good work that’s not cause prioritization may be falsely labeled as cause prioritization).
- By revealed preferences, EAIF has given very large grants to worldview investigations and moral weights work at Rethink Priorities
- By stated preferences, “research that aids prioritization across different cause areas” was listed as one of the central examples of things that EAIF would be excited to fund.
- My understanding is that the best evidence you have for this view is that EA Funds leadership “would consider less than half of what [Rethink Priorities] does cause prioritization.”
- I’m confused why you think the quoted statement is surprising or good evidence, given that the stated claim is just obviously true. Eg, eg The Rodenticide Reduction Sequence or Cultured meat: A comparison of techno-economic analyses or Exposure to Lead Paint in Low- and Middle-Income Countries (To give three examples of work that I have more than a passing familiarity with) are much more about intervention prioritization than intercause prioritization. An example of the latter is the moral weights work at Rethink Priorities Worldview Investigations.
- My best guess is that this is just a semantics misunderstanding, where EA Funds’ project lead was trying to convey a technical point about the difference between intercause cause prioritization vs intervention prioritization, whereas you understood his claim as a emotive position of “boo cause prioritization”
- Your report states that “EA Funds leadership doesn't believe that there is more uncertainty now with EA Fund's funding compared to other points in time” This is clearly false.
- I knew coming on to EA Funds that the job will have greater job uncertainty than other jobs I’ve had in the past, and I believe this was adequately communicated to me.
- We think about funding uncertainty a lot. EA Funds’ funding has always been uncertain, and things have gotten worse since Nov 2022.
- Nor would it be consistent with either our stated or revealed preferences.
- Our revealed preference is that we spend substantially more staff time on fundraising than we have in the past.
- Our stated preferences include “I generally expect our funding bar to vary more over time and to depend more on individual donations than it has historically.” and “LTFF and EAIF are unusually funding-constrained right now”
- The last one was even the title of a post with 4000+ views!
- I don’t have a good idea for how much more unambiguous we could be.
Semantically:
I originally want to correct misunderstandings and misrepresentations of EA Funds’ positions more broadly in the report. However I think there were just a lot of misunderstandings overall, so I think it's simpler for people to just assume I contest almost every categorization of the form “EA funds believes X”. A few select examples:
- When your report claimed “leadership is of the view that the current funding landscape isn't more difficult for community builders” I a) don’t think we’ve said that, and b) to the extent we believe it, it’s relative to eg 2019; it’d be false compared to the 2022 era of unjustly excessive spending.
- “The EA Funds chair has clarified that EAIF would only really coordinate with OP, since they're reliably around; only if the [Meta-Charity Funders] was around for some time, would EA Funds find it worth factoring into their plans. ”
- To clarify, at the time the fund chair was unsure if MCF was only going to have one round. If they only have one round, it wouldn't make sense to change EA Funds’ strategy based on that. If they have multiple rounds (eg, more than 2, it could be worth factoring in). The costs of coordination are nontrivially significant.
- It’s also worth noting that the fund chair had 2 calls with MCF and passed on various grants that they thought MCF might be interested in evaluating, which some people may consider coordination.
- We’ve also coordinated more extensively with other non-OP funders, and have plans in the works for other collaborations with large funders.
- “In general, they don't think that other funders outside of OP need to do work on prioritization, and are in general sceptical of such work. ”
- AFAIK nobody at EA Funds believes this.
- [EA funds believes] “so if EA groups struggle to raise money, it's simply because there are more compelling opportunities available instead.”
- The statement seems kind of conceptually confused? Funders should always be trying to give to the most cost-effective projects on the margin.
- The most charitable position that’s similar to the above I could think of is that some people might believe that
- “most community-building projects that are not funded now aren’t funded because of constraints on grantmaker capacity,” so grantmakers make poor decisions
- Note that the corollary to the above is that many of the community building projects that are funded should not have been funded.
- I can’t speak to other people at EA Funds, but my own best guess is that this is not true (for projects that people online are likely to have heard of).
- I’m more optimistic about boutique funding arrangements for projects within people’s networks that are unlikely to have applied to big funders, or people inspiring those around them to create new projects.
- “most community-building projects that are not funded now aren’t funded because of constraints on grantmaker capacity,” so grantmakers make poor decisions
- If projects aren’t funded, the biggest high-level reason is that there are limited resources in the world in general, and in EA specifically. You might additionally also believe that meta-EA in general is underfunded relative to object-level programs.
- (Minor): To clarify “since OP's GHW EA team is focusing on effective giving, EAIF will consider this less neglected” we should caveat this by saying that less neglected doesn’t necessarily mean less cost-effective than other plausible things for EAIF to fund.
- Re: “EA Funds not posting reports or having public metrics of success”
- We do post public payout reports.
- My understanding is that you are (understandably) upset that we don’t have clear metrics and cost-effectiveness analyses written up.
- I think this is a reasonable and understandable complaint, and we have indeed gotten this feedback before from others and have substantial room to improve here.
- However, I think many readers might interpret the statement as something stronger, e.g. interpreting it as us not posting reports or writing publicly much at all
- As a matter of practice, we write a lot more about what we fund and our decision process than any other EA funder I’m aware of (and likely more than most other non-EA funders). I think many readers may get the wrong impression of our level of transparency from that comment.
Note to readers: I reached out to Joel to clarify some of these points before posting. I really appreciate his prompt responses! Due to time constraints, I decided to not send him a copy of this exact comment before posting publicly.
- ^
I personally have benefited greatly from talking to specialist advisors in biosecurity.
- ^
From GPT4
“The median time to receive a response for an academic grant can vary significantly depending on the funding organization, the field of study, and the specific grant program. Generally, the process can take anywhere from a few months to over a year. ”
“The timeline for receiving a response on grant applications can vary across different fields and types of grants, but generally, the processes are similar in length to those in the academic and scientific research sectors.”
“Smaller grants in this field might be decided upon quicker, potentially within 3 to 6 months [emphasis mine], especially if they require less funding or involve fewer regulatory hurdles.” - ^
Being funded by grants kind of sucks as an experience compared to e.g. employment; I dislike adding to such frustrations. There are also several cases I’m aware of where counterfactually impactful projects were not taken due to funders being insufficiently able to fund things in time, in some of those incidences I'm more responsible than anybody else.
Meta note: I wouldn’t normally write a comment like this. I don’t seriously consider 99.99% of charities when making my donations; why single out one? I’m writing anyway because comments so far are not engaging with my perspective, and I hope more detail can help 80,000 hours themselves and others engage better if they wish to do so. As I note at the end, they may quite reasonably not wish to do so.
For background, I was one of the people interviewed for this report, and in 2014-2018 my wife and I were one of 80,000 hours’ largest donors. In recent years it has not made my shortlist of donation options. The report’s characterisation of them - spending a huge amount while not clearly being >0 on the margin - is fairly close to my own view, though clearly I was not the only person to express it. All views expressed below are my own.
I think it is very clear that 80,000 hours have had a tremendous influence on the EA community. I cannot recall anyone stating otherwise, so references to things like the EA survey are not very relevant. But influence is not impact. I commonly hear two views for why this influence may not translate into positive impact:
-80,000 hours prioritises AI well above other cause areas. As a result they commonly push people off paths which are high-impact per other worldviews. So if you disagree with them about AI, you’re going to read things like their case studies and be pretty nonplussed. You’re also likely to have friends who have left very promising career paths because they were told they would do even more good in AI safety. This is my own position.
-80,000 hours is likely more responsible than any other single org for the many EA-influenced people working on AI capabilities. Many of the people who consider AI top priority are negative on this and thus on the org as a whole. This is not my own position, but I mention it because I think it helps explain why (some) people who are very pro-AI may decline to fund.
I suspect this unusual convergence may be why they got singled out; pretty much every meta org has funders skeptical of them for cause prioritisation reasons, but here there are many skeptics in the crowd broadly aligned on prioritisation.
Looping back to my own position, I would offer two ‘fake’ illustrative anecdotes:
Alice read Doing Good Better and was convinced of the merits of donating a moderate fraction of her income to effective charities. Later, she came across 80,000 hours and was convinced by their argument that her career was far more important. However, she found herself unable to take any of the recommended positions. As a result she neither donates nor works in what they would consider a high-impact role; it’s as if neither interaction had ever occurred, except perhaps she feels a bit down about her apparent uselessness.
Bob was having impact in a cause many EAs consider a top priority. But he is epistemically modest, and inclined to defer to the apparent EA consensus- communicated via 80,000 hours - that AI was more important. He switched careers and did find a role with solid - but worse - personal fit. The role is well-paid and engaging day-to-day; Bob sees little reason to reconsider the trade-off, especially since ChatGPT seems to have vindicated 80,000 hours’ prior belief that AI was going to be a big deal. But if pressed he would readily acknowledge that it’s not clear how his work actually improves things. In line with his broad policy on epistemics, he points out the EA leadership is very positive on his approach; who is he to disagree?
Alice and Bob have always been possible problems from my perspective. But in recent years I’ve met far more of them than I did when I was funding 80,000 hours. My circles could certainly be skewed here, but when there’s a lack of good data my approach to such situations is to base my own decisions on my own observations. If my circles are skewed, other people who are seeing very little of Alice and Bob can always choose to fund.
On that last note, I want to reiterate that I cannot think of a single org, meta or otherwise, that does not have its detractors. I suspect there may be some latent belief that an org as central as 80,000 hours has solid support across most EA funders. To the best of my knowledge this is not and has never been the case, for them or for anyone else. I do not think they should aim for that outcome, and I would encourage readers to update ~0 on learning such.
Just want to say here (since I work at 80k & commented abt our impact metrics & other concerns below) that I think it's totally reasonable to:
Thanks Arden. I suspect you don't disagree with the people interviewed for this report all that much then, though ultimately I can only speak for myself.
One possible disagreement that you and other commenters brought up that which I meant to respond to in my first comment, but forgot: I would not describe 80,000 hours as cause-neutral, as you try to do here and here. This seems to be an empirical disagreement, quoting from second link:
I don't think that's how it would go. If an individual 80,000 hours member learned things that cause them to downshift their x-risk or AI safety priority, I expect them to leave the org, not for the org to change. Similar observations on hiring. So while all the individuals involved may be cause neutral and open to change in the sense you describe, 80,000 hours itself is not, practically speaking. It's very common for orgs to be more 'sticky' than their constituent employees in this way.
I appreciate it's a weekend, and you should feel free to take your time to respond to this if indeed you respond at all. Sorry for missing it in the first round.
Speaking in a personal capacity here --
We do try to be open to changing our minds so that we can be cause neutral in the relevant sense, and we do change our cause rankings periodically and spend time and resources thinking about them (in fact we’re in the middle of thinking through some changes now). But how well set up are we, institutionally, to be able to in practice make changes as big as deprioritising risks from AI if we get good reasons to? I think this is a good question, and want to think about it more. So thanks!
Many of the things the EA Survey shows 80,000 Hours doing (e.g. introducing people to EA in the first place, helping people get more involved with EA, making people more likely to remain engaged with EA, introducing people to ideas and contacts that they think are important for their impact, helping people (by their own lights) have more impact), are things which supporters of a wide variety of worldviews and cause areas could view as valuable. Our data suggests that it is not only people who prioritise longtermist causes who are report these benefits from 80,000 Hours.
Hi David,
There is a significant overlap between EA and AI safety, and it is often unclear whether people supposedly working on AI safety are increasing/decreasing AI risk. So I think it would be helpful if you could point to some (recent) data on how many people are being introduced to global health and development, and animal welfare via 80,000 Hours.
Thanks Vasco.
We actually have a post on this forthcoming, but I can give you the figures for 80,000 Hours specifically now.
Thanks, David! Strongly upvoted.
To clarify, are those numbers relative to the people who got to know about EA in 2023 (via 80,000 Hours or any source)?
Thanks Vasco!
These are numbers from the most recent full EA Survey (end of 2022), but they're not limited only to people who joined EA in the most recent year. Slicing it by individual cohorts would reduce the sample size a lot.
My guess is that it would also increase the support for neartermist causes among all recruits (respondents tend to start out neartermist and become more longtermist over time).
That said, if we do look at people who joined EA in 2021 or later (the last 3 years seems decently recent to me, I don't have the sense that 80K's recruitment has changed so much in that time frame, n=1059), we see:
ChatGPT is just the tip of the iceberg here.
GPT4 is significantly more powerful than 3.5. Google now has a multi-modal model that can take in sound, images and video and a context window of up to a million tokens. Sora can generate amazing realistic videos. And everyone is waiting to see what GPT5 can do.
Further, the Center for AI Safety open letter has demonstrated that it isn't just our little community that is worried about these things, but a large number of AI experts.
Their 'AI is going to be a big thing' bet seems to have been a wise call, at least at the current point in time. Of course, I'm doing AI Safety movement building, so I'm a bit biased here, and maybe we'll think differently down the line, but right now they're clearly ahead.