List of Tools for Collaborative Truth Seeking [wip]

Plans: Each tool will have a description, a link to a video / text tutorial, and a link to a twitter thread. 

Tool Summaries

Stating Beliefs

Manifold markets: a play money prediction market with user-created questions. The play money can be redeemed as a charitable donation. Main wiki page.

Metaculus: forecast and view forecasts on a wide range of topics. Main wiki page.

Visualisation of Probability Mass: visualise percentages easily with a 10x10 grid.

Click and drag probability elicitation: generate probability distributions easily with a simple interface.

Model Building (Quantitative)

Guesstimate: tool for spreadsheet or logic model creation with uncertainty. Main wiki page

Squiggle: a coding language for generating precise probability distributions, estimates of variables over time, and similar tasks. Main wiki page

Google Sheets: collaborative spreadsheet creator integrated with google drive/docs.

Model Building (Qualitative)

Google Drawing: a collaborative drawing platform integrated with google drive/docs

Excalidraw: a collaborative shared whiteboard for text and sketching. Good for logic models.

Infinite Canvases: a platform for building collaborative visual modelling apps; several such apps already available. 

Communication of ideas

Loom: screen capture and audio/video recording app with easy sharing. 

Misc

Pol.is: A surveying platform in which participants submit short text statements, or comments, (<140 characters) which are then sent out semi-randomly to other participants to vote on by clicking agree, disagree or pass.

Pastcasting (sage): A forecasting platform using resolved questions from other sites (e.g. Metaculus) to shorten the feedback loop and practice forecasting, particularly over long time horizons.

External links

Name of ToolText tutorialVideo TutorialTwitter Thread
Manifold MarketsOfficial documentation, wiki pageLoomWIP
MetaculusOfficial tutorialsWIPWIP
Visualisation of Probability MassForum post (WIP)WIPWIP
Click and Drag Probability ElicitationForum post (WIP)LoomWIP
GuesstimateForum post (WIP)LoomWIP
SquiggleForum post (WIP)LoomWIP
Squiggle ComponentsOfficial documentationN/AWIP
Google SheetsWIPWIPWIP
Google DrawingWIPWIPWIP
ExcalidrawForum post (WIP)WIPWIP
LoomForum post (WIP)Basic, BroaderWIP
Pol.isWorked exampleWIPWIP
Pastcasting  Official FAQWIPWIP

 

Related Entries

manifold | metaculus | guesstimate | fermi estimate | cause prioritization | expected value | forecasting | impact assessment | model uncertainty | prediction markets | squiggle