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August 16 - 23
Cluelessness Critiques Week

We’re discussing cluelessness all week. Read eligible entries from the essay competition, and get involved in the discussion, for a chance of a $100 comment prize. 

We’re discussing cluelessness all week. Read eligible entries from the essay competition, and get involved in the discussion, for a chance of a $100 comment prize. 

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12
College EA Meetups Everywhere: Call For Organizers
Mjreard, SarahBluhm, Scott Alexander·55m ago·7m read
Mjreard, SarahBluhm, Scott Alexander
+ 2 more
·55m ago·7m read
26
Effective Altruism and End-Times Fascism
Denis·1d ago·4m read
Denis
·1d ago·4m read
55
Growing Requires Growth: Building the Systems Behind CEA’s Community Expansion
Jessica McCurdy🔸·3d ago·11m read
Jessica McCurdy🔸
·3d ago·11m read
42
Systemic change and EA: What is it all about?
Birte 🔸, Sarah Weiler, Moya, Milena Canzler🔸, Amy Brown, Henning Peters·2d ago·7m read
Birte 🔸, Sarah Weiler, Moya, Milena Canzler🔸, Amy Brown, Henning Peters
+ 5 more
·2d ago·7m read
16
The Grown-Ups Aren’t Coming
Devon Fritz 🔸·1d ago·4m read
Devon Fritz 🔸
·1d ago·4m read
34
EffectiveAdvocate🔸
2d
Tweet by Andy Masley (17 Aug 2026) listing five tenets of his "vision for Woke 3": radical cosmopolitanism, scientific materialism, scepticism of surface explanations for behaviour, ruthless egalitarianism, and respect for markets as information aggregators. Ends: "If only we had something like this today..."

⬆️ The future we are all dreaming of! 

(I hope sharing of what is essentially a meme is allowed here)

22
Noah Birnbaum
2d

Here is a claim I made to my friend yesterday that I think is true and believe people continually underrate: given reasonable assumptions about the influx of incoming capital, getting into (ie working in/thinking about) AI/ AI Safety early has probably been better for GHD or AW than lots (maybe all, tho I haven’t crunched the numbers) of direct work in GHD and AW. 


I think this could even be true for EA CB (with much less confidence). AIS groups grow a lot faster than EA groups historically do and while the groups are often not that EA aligned, the leaders (who are, in my view, often very talented) are to various degrees. This is especially true for the ones who end up working full time in AIS: they often have proto-EA dispositions and these become intensified when they work around a bunch of EAs full time (though I can see two ways in which this is not as good as normal EAs: (1) being EA for social reasons and (2) being EA in stated but not revealed preference). TBC, I think having an EA group at a school make it much more likely that the leaders of the AIS group are aligned. 

I can also see worlds (though def not my mainline at the moment) where the best thing one could have done for quality adjusted EA CB is actually just supporting AIS groups. 


I don’t know how we should update/ by how much, but I think a reasonable way is the following: being ahead on some big emerging issue might just be more important than what seems like the obviously important thing that nobody does for bad reasons (ie GHD or AW). 

1
Milli🔸
2h*

How much does music, literature and art influence people's perception of reality?
Where is it on the scale from "All our opinions come from external sources." via "The messages in art are irrelevant, people enjoy things without it changing their worldview." to "People consume only art that matches their worldview."?
Is the "tech-right" getting more traction because it embraces AI art which is quick to generate and can be captivating?

Example (not sure if this person is "tech-right"): A song about Elon Musk with genuinely catchy music: https://youtu.be/wWZYP5jn5w4

14
Agustín Covarrubias 🔸
3d
Policy
Existential risk
AI safety
Career choice
Policy
Existential risk
AI safety
Career choice
3 more

Applications to SPAR Fall 2026 are closing tomorrow Aug 18 EOD Anywhere on Earth. SPAR is the ecosystem's biggest AI safety research program, and it's part-time remote.

We still have many strong projects across AI safety, AI policy, and biosecurity with very few applications[1], so please consider applying! This round, we also have 18 non-research/generalist projects that people can apply to, and we have much more mentee capacity than previous rounds; we expect to accept around 500 people into the program.

If you have friends who have thought about going into AI safety, spread the word!

  1. ^

    To be specific, as of 2:25 PM PT, we had around 67 projects with fewer than 20 applications total!

6
Lorenzo Buonanno🔸
2d
3

It looks like https://www.youtube.com/@EffectiveAltruismOfficial (which used to be https://www.youtube.com/c/EffectiveAltruismVideos ) unlisted almost all of their videos, including e.g. Ajeya Cotra's classic introduction to EA

Does anyone know who to reach out to to ask if this was intentional?

11
New? Start here.
Toby Tremlett🔹·1mo ago·2m read
Toby Tremlett🔹
·1mo ago·2m read
9
Open thread: 2026 Q3 (July - September)
Toby Tremlett🔹·1mo ago·2m read
Toby Tremlett🔹
·1mo ago·2m read
24
Cluelessness Critiques Week: Discussion Thread
Cluelessness Critiques Week
Toby Tremlett🔹·3d ago·1m read
Toby Tremlett🔹
·3d ago·1m read
55
New Research: Climate Mitigation is Overlooked by EA
Dan Stein·2d ago·Curated 15h ago·8m read
Dan Stein
·2d ago·Curated 15h ago·8m read
24
Thoughts on Taking OpenAI Foundation Funding
Jeff Kaufman 🔸·10h ago·5m read
Jeff Kaufman 🔸
·10h ago·5m read
2
My Attempt at Solving Cluelessness: Solipsism
Cluelessness Critiques Week
Julius Olavarria 🔸·1h ago·17m read
Julius Olavarria 🔸
·1h ago·17m read
7
GiveWell Hiring: Head of Legal
GiveWell·4h ago·1m read
GiveWell
·4h ago·1m read
7
Why self-fund your regranting?
Carol N, Austin·4h ago·4m read
Carol N, Austin
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Two crazy-ish charitable global poverty project ideas
MathiasKB🔸·2d ago·4m read
MathiasKB🔸
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1
What Effective AI Capability Investment Looks Like in Low Resource Research Settings
Alejandra Carriero·3h ago·16m read
Alejandra Carriero
·3h ago·16m read
45
WAI is starting Phase 3 of field-building for wild animal welfare science
Luke Hecht·1d ago·16m read
Luke Hecht
·1d ago·16m read
9
We Must Remember That Our World Contains Hell
James Brobin·9h ago·4m read
James Brobin
·9h ago·4m read
35
Sentient Futures Summit Bay Area 2027
Sentient Futures, Zoe L, Constance Li·1d ago·1m read
Sentient Futures, Zoe L, Constance Li
+ 2 more
·1d ago·1m read
5
Owain Evans on accidentally training AI models to be evil
80000_Hours·8h ago·19m read
80000_Hours
·8h ago·19m read
Advanced sorting & filtering
animal welfare has an evidence problem
View in thread
Krzysztof Wojtas
13h
25

Hi Amanda, I have a few points of clarification regarding the evidence on shrimp stunning and Shrimp Welfare Project’s Humane Slaughter Initiative.

We acknowledge it is true that academic peer-reviewed evidence is limited (although we’re excited to report that the Stirling study is no longer a pre-print and has been published in Aquaculture). That being said, our intervention is informed by more evidence than just the peer-reviewed literature. We (and, sometimes, the industry) have access to more evidence than what’s published or able to be communicated publicly. 

It may be useful to clarify what we mean by “research” and “evidence-building” in this context. Beyond peer-reviewed studies, evidence-building for humane slaughter means reducing uncertainty across several linked questions, including: whether electrical stunning can quickly render shrimp insensible under controlled conditions; whether it works reliably during commercial harvests; what parameters, protocols, and equipment designs improve outcomes; whether producers are using stunners as intended; and how monitoring systems can make that implementation more verifiable over time.

In practice, that means the evidence base is built from multiple sources: lab studies, field observations, stunner data, producer feedback, behavioral indicators, equipment iteration, implementation protocols, and MEL systems. This is not a linear process where all the research happens first and implementation only begins later. Field implementation is part of the learning which often reveals the constraints, failure modes, and practical questions that the next round of research needs to answer.

Recently, The Center for Responsible Seafood (TCRS) published a summary of a study conducted by the University of Stirling[1]. In a field visit in April 2026, researchers compared electrical stunning and ice slurry on an Indian farm. An excerpt reads:

“In summary, to meet ethical and welfare concerns, shrimp benefit from rapid stunning immediately after harvest. Electric stunning provides a rapid and effective stun as shown by the lack of response to subsequent cold exposure, but the process triggers a strong muscle contraction and elevated blood lactate. Cold shock does not deliver an immediate stun.

The report found that, with ice slurry alone (referred to as cold shock or CS), “shrimp are highly likely to maintain neural sensibility during the CS stunning process,” and those animals “did incur an initial ca. 30 sec tail flip response (since they are not insensible).” 

“Therefore,” the researchers wrote, “best practice would suggest that ES needs to be followed by CS (ES+CS protocol).”

For those unfamiliar with TCRS, it’s quite an industry-aligned organisation, so their study coming to this conclusion is noteworthy. 

Through our Humane Slaughter Initiative, Shrimp Welfare Project’s team members have seen dozens of harvests using stunners, and we have collected thousands of photos and videos that have informed our intervention (e.g., which parameters work best in certain contexts, how the use of a pump/harvester could minimize time shrimps spent out of water, etc.). We can’t share most of that content publicly because our industry partners (and therefore, we) operate in a competitive market environment where confidentiality, trade secrets, and proprietary information are very important. We understand that many folks in the EA community would appreciate greater transparency, and we’re always trying to facilitate a productive exchange of knowledge about our work – hopefully, this comment will accomplish some of that. 

To respond to some of your specific points:

In 2021, Tesco and Hilton Seafood published a report on their use of a modified Optimar stunner in Vietnam. … This gives some reassurance for this particular machine, although I know from talking to people in the field that this machine was a modified version of the commercially available one.

Shrimp Welfare Project has visited that farm and observed the stunner in operation, and it is an early (yet almost-standard) Optimar model. It's a fish stunner that had its electrified "fingers" (which, when they touch animals on an electrified conveyor, complete the electric current and produce the stunning shock) lowered to reach much smaller animals, rather than a completely bespoke modification that could have fundamentally changed the stunner's parameters or operation. 

We've worked with Optimar to implement improvements over the years (we’re currently on version ~6), so the shrimp-specific finger-lowering adjustment is no longer a post-manufacturing modification, but a feature of the commercially-available standard model. Perhaps this is the source of the confusion? 

Regardless, the important takeaway here is that the 2020 case study used a stunner that is representative of the kind of stunners we support via our HSI program at present, and it concluded that electrical stunning at the recommended parameters was able to “deliver >97% stunning efficacy,” and followed by “immediate immersion in ice slurry achieving 100%” efficacy. 

Going into your next point about sample sizes, I wanted to note that this case study used 50kg samples per voltage tested. Since shrimps were 25-30g each at harvest, that’s ~1,700-2,000 animals per 50kg sample, though the report doesn’t state this explicitly. There were also 100 shrimps checked for stunning effectiveness at start-up. 

[re: Weineck et al.] The study uses a very small sample size (N = 6 for each intervention) which makes me uncomfortable recommending any action based on it. … [re: Stirling study] This study is also small (N = 4-6 per intervention) which again leads me to have limited confidence in conclusions. 

Many of the studies that involve animal testing like this use small sample sizes. In speaking with scientists who specialize in invertebrate biology, it’s understandable why these studies would be designed with small sample sizes. If the desired effect size is large for the variables tested (as is often the case here) and the standard deviation among individuals is only moderate (as is expected to be the case here), this is not necessarily a limitation. It’s statistically appropriate, and even often ethically mandated – by institutional standards and/or the Three R Principles of animal research. This is only to say: we should not have a knee-jerk response to sample size. 

That said, we recognize that the actual findings are not a clean on/off, but rather a subtle, dose-dependent difference between responders and non-responders. Our confidence would increase if there were more animals tested to generate more data to support precise parameters for effective stunning. At the same time, the direction of the findings is still informative, especially as they converge with other evidence, including the TCRS study and our own field data. 

Based on this data, it is unclear if electric shock followed by ice slurry provides any benefit over ice slurry alone, provided the animals are kept in ice slurry until they are fully dead. (It is unclear how long that would take, though.) …  A sufficiently strong electrical shock with proper ice slurry (which is hard to implement in practice) does not provide much improvement over proper ice slurry alone.

I don’t think the Stirling paper supports this.

At 2.5–5 °C (which would be a high-performing slurry temperature by current commercial standards) cold shock was slow and unreliable as a route to neurological insensibility. Using the paper’s threshold of Ptot <10% of baseline brain activity, only 4 out of 5 shrimp reached this threshold, and this occurred after 28 minutes. One animal did not appear to reach the Ptot <10% threshold within the 30-minute observation period.

At −2.5 °C, all shrimp reached Ptot <10% within 4 minutes. However, achieving and maintaining a −2.5 °C slurry consistently during commercial harvests, especially in tropical climates and under high biomass loading, is likely to be extremely difficult. We are exploring this avenue, including deepchill-type technology, but at present we are only moderately optimistic about its practical feasibility. At the moment, maintaining these kinds of temperatures is far from “proper ice slurry,” and more appropriately understood as a rare exception in real-world production settings. 

The best-supported approach in the paper is electrical stunning (ES) followed by cold shock (CS). In the effective ES + CS group, all animals that did not tail flip after cold exposure reached Ptot <10% after 3 minutes of cold shock. There’s limited research on the relationship between tail flipping and neural insensibility / loss of consciousness[2], so our confidence in this correlation would increase with more data. But it’s important to reiterate that, based on the best available knowledge from the Stirling lab (which they clearly state in the paper), absence of tail flipping after cold exposure is aligned with neurological insensibility[3].

Here is a video that shows shrimp in ice slurry – the first group has been electrically stunned, and the second group has not. The second clip shows a nearly ideal ice slurry in a production setting, with a temperature around 1 degree C. What you see in that video is consistent with what we’ve seen at shrimp farms around the world: that even when in a highly controlled ice slurry, shrimps flip their tails for multiple minutes. 

Insufficient electrical stunning with proper ice slurry may be worse than ice slurry alone.

This would be true for basically all stunning methods, across land and aquatic animals. If a percussive stunning bolt is insufficiently administered to a cow’s head, then the slaughter process would be more painful than if a stunning method hadn’t been poorly attempted. 

Electrical stunning without proper ice slurry slaughter poses real potential for causing harm.

A few things here:

  • Our intervention is not electrical stunning on its own, without an adequate kill step (more on this below).
  • We don’t just send stunners to producers – an important part of our intervention is that we train them on how to use the machines properly and help them implement higher-welfare ice slurry protocols. 

Additionally, this line of reasoning would seem to contradict your argument in your post, that:

“Many shrimp harvests do not use ice slurry, or do not use it properly (not cold enough, not long enough, etc.).” 

There’s a tension here worth flagging: on the one hand, your comparison of electrical stunning vs. ice slurry assumes an idealized version of “proper” ice slurry – cold enough, maintained long enough, carefully managed. But when it comes to what electrical stunning would look like in real-world harvest conditions, your concern raised is precisely that ice slurry is often not implemented properly. If poorly implemented ice slurry undermines the case for electrical stunning, then the same realism has to apply when ice slurry itself is proposed as the alternative. Either way, the fair comparison is between the two methods as they would actually be implemented – and in our view, that comparison favors electrical stunning followed by ice slurry as the kill method.

The science is clear that any stunning method can be reversible if it’s not followed by an adequate kill step. This is true for both electrical stunning as well as ice slurry that’s used for stunning. In the Humane Slaughter Initiative, our protocol calls for ice slurry as the kill step; importantly, we’re not using ice slurry as a stunning method, but rather a method to prevent the shrimps from recovering after the electric shock. We guide farm staff on how to do this ice slurry properly, including monitoring the temperature and replenishing the ice, etc. In our field experience, this process usually involves putting shrimps through the stunner, then directly into an ice bath for several minutes (as in this video and this video), and then into transport crates where they are packed with ice. In this slaughter method, the ice slurry prevents the shrimps from re-warming and recovering, rather than being the step that also stuns them. 

Doing a well-implemented ice slurry for stunning is much harder to do effectively in practice than an ice slurry for prevention of recovery/slaughter after electrical stunning. So, although these practices share the same name, their different purposes and application create a major distinction. We are more confident in ice slurry as a slaughter and recovery prevention method after electrical stunning, than ice slurry as a stunning method itself.

Overall, the evidence base for shrimp stunning is still developing and Shrimp Welfare Project acknowledges this and is actively working to develop it further, both through our own fieldwork and by coordinating with researchers, manufacturers, producers, and other industry actors. Given the scale of the problem, we do not think the right response is to wait for full certainty, as it would mean accepting a harmful status quo for billions of animals while the evidence accumulates. The direction of the evidence, our field experience, and the practical realities of commercial harvests so far all point the same way: electrical stunning is faster, more consistent, and more monitorable than industry-typical ice slurry stunning.

More importantly, it is somewhat illusory to think that all the necessary research and R&D can happen first, in isolation, and only then be translated into the field. In industry-facing work, implementation is often what makes the most useful research possible. Without producer buy-in, farm access, commissioning data, firsthand observations of real harvests, and tests in farm conditions, we would be left with a largely theoretical understanding of the problem. We would not know which constraints actually matter, which failure modes appear in practice, or what kinds of equipment, protocols, and monitoring systems can realistically work.

This is especially true in an industry that is often cautious about disclosure around its know-how. Building trust with producers and the wider industry is not incidental to the intervention; it is part of what makes practical progress possible. That is why we think collaborating with the industry is the most effective path: build trust, implement carefully, learn from the field, improve the technology, and strengthen the evidence base as we go. The field implementation work is what creates the conditions for practical, relevant R&D to happen.

Humane slaughter for shrimp is emerging as a higher-welfare standard, and the science on effective stunning is not fully settled. As I’ve outlined, there are things that would increase our confidence levels. But the available evidence indicates that well-implemented electrical stunning beats what is happening on most farms today. And it’s my view that responsible implementation now, alongside continued research, R&D, and monitoring, is one of the strongest bets we can make for reducing suffering at scale.

  1. ^

    This is an example of the fact that we have access to more data than that which is publicly available. In this case, the research summary is published online, but we also have access to the full scientific report (although we’re not at liberty to post or share it). There have been many instances like this over the years.

  2. ^

    Behavioral indicators are tricky because they’re not always a reliable indicator of unconsciousness. It’s like proving a negative: you can often infer consciousness from the presence of certain behaviors, but you cannot reliably infer unconsciousness from a lack of those behaviors alone. However, Stirling’s team measured behavioral indicators and investigated which of them correlated with EEG results, to determine which might be reliable. 

  3. ^

    Generally, when shrimps are electrically stunned, there’s one big tail flip when shrimps go through the stunner (likely a reflexive response), followed by immobility. The Stirling study found that this correlates with shrimps having one big EEG spike and then a drop, likely indicating a seizure analog followed by absence of brain activity (a loss of consciousness).

New Research: Climate Mitigation is Overlooked by EA
View in thread
jackva
2d
40

(I manage the FP Climate Fund, so my incentives run counter to my take). I hadn't had the time to examine this paper in detail, but I am quite skeptical of this Rethink Priorities paper. I think it is quite easy to string together assumptions that yield a high social cost of carbon, but I wouldn't treat this as an unbiased estimate.

For example, if I understand this correctly based on your description, they use the Rennert et al (2022) paper to derive the SCC from which they make adjustments.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05224-9/figures/1

The assumptions of that paper are clearly extremely pessimistic, probably by 2022 standards, but definitely by what would now be the consensus view.

For example, they assume close to 20/Gt annual emissions in 2100 as their median scenario and high emissions continue well into the 23rd century. In other words, we are more than a 100 years late in achieving net-zero in their median scenario despite all technological trendlines rendering this quite implausible.

Combining this with a low discount rate will give a high SCC, but I don't think this is close to a reasonable baseline for what a median expectation should be. (Obviously good to have a low discount rate from an EA perspective, but this requires that the modeling of the future is a bit more careful). Essentially, this means that most marginal carbon reduction modeled for the SCC will happen in worlds where this is implausibly valuable thereby inflating the SCC value.

This alone probably leads to an overestimate of the SCC of a factor of 5x or more and this came up from looking at the paper for 5min.

WAI is starting Phase 3 of field-building for wild animal welfare science
View in thread
mal_graham🔸
10h
20

Okay cool, that’s helpful. It seems like the root disagreement is not whether research is ever worth funding, but how clear the research —> impact path should be, and perhaps how short.

My guess from this/reading your other comments is that ~ 2 major things underpin a difference between you and I in terms of excitement about WAW/WAI. Both connect to the fact that cost-effectiveness is always a comparative claim. So on the one hand, I probably rate WAWS as more cost-effective to promote than you do, but importantly, I also rate other things as less cost-effective than you do (making the bar easier to clear).

Towards the latter point: I care a lot about indirect and unintended effects of interventions on all sentient beings. This means that, without a good understanding of ecology and WAW, the cost-effectiveness of the vast majority of potential animal welfare interventions is basically not knowable. For a variety of reasons connected to (what I view as) the failure of the taste/price/convenience model, I don’t have that much confidence that merely inventing cultivated meat will be enough to change diets. But even if it was, I don’t have any idea exactly how those diets will change (small animal replacement problems), or how the resulting land use changes will affect wild animal welfare. I’m pretty consequentialist in my ethics, so I’m not comfortable helping some farmed animals at the expense of billions to quadrillions of wild animals. As someone who hates factory farming this is a hard place for me to sit, and I’m probably not ethically pure on it — I still am vegan and support farmed animal advocacy financially. But in response to the uncertainty about how shrimp stunning, cultivated meat, vegan advocacy, etc. affects wild animals, the only thing I can see to do is research it, and my calculations of cost effectiveness of those other activities is correspondingly really really wide, making research a cost-effectiveness-competitive thing to do.

My guess is that you don’t share this view at all and may even think it’s sort of dumb! That’s fine, but arguing about whether WAI in particular is cost-effective won’t help us make progress on this disagreement (which I think is also the source of disagreement between you and the vast majority of other people who are excited about WAWS). Instead, if you wanted to change my mind that WAI was a good giving opportunity, you’d need to show me that I should not care about the effects of land use change resulting from factory farming elimination or cultivated meat production on wild animal welfare (among a variety of other things).

The second source of disagreement is how much the sort of field-building work WAI does leads into interventions, and how soon. Using cultivated meat as a benchmark: yes, we already have cultivated meat, but we have no way to produce it cost effectively at scale. I’m not a cultivated meat expert, but barring some kind of revolutionary development I would assume that we’re more than 5 years away from scaled cultivated meat deployment? If that’s right, there are definitely interventions in WAW that could realistically be available on that timeline. We already have a variety of contraceptive products that work in the lab for rodents. I’m in the middle of designing a targeted research program that (I hope) will get us to the point of a cost-effective, scalable deployment within 5-8 years. Similarly, I’ve designed a research agenda that I believe, within ~ 3-5 years of research, maybe less, could answer to a degree of confidence I’d be willing to act on whether bird-window collision prevention is net positive to promote. Another angle I’m pursuing is wildlife vaccination — it might not pan out, but if it does, I would expect to be ready to recommend an intervention within no more than 10 years. Whether that’s good enough probably depends on how quickly you think other interventions will start benefiting animals; you might think cultivated meat replacement will be here in much less time than I do.

Connecting this back to WAI: although I’m not doing this work at WAI, none of it would be possible without WAI. My work there and the field-building work they’ve done give me the tools I need to do this more intervention-focused research, and the research WAI does/supports is the substrate by which these ideas have been generated. If the work I’m doing now continues to make progress, I’ll need scientists who get the basic ideas to carry it out. And once I rule in/rule out the ideas I already have, I’ll need there to have been more research in the meantime to support more ideas and ways to help animals.

None of this is that dissimilar to what GFI does for cultivated meat. If I understand correctly, the product didn’t really exist before EAs got into it, and a huge amount of EA and animal advocacy money went towards not just object level research but building university groups so there would be a talent pipeline, lobbying to make more money available, etc. And WAI is working on a harder problem at an earlier stage, so things are a little slower/less tractable, but the scale is commensurately higher.

I don’t really expect you or others with values focused on shorter timelines/direct effects only to be convinced — I think it’s fine for EAs to differ on what they mean by “cost-effective.” Some people want “strong evidence for immediate-ish impact” and others want to take a bunch of high risk, high reward bets and expect that at least a couple pan out. Both are legitimate investment strategies, and WAI is likely to be most appealing to people who (1) are very worried about indirect effects or (2) prefer the latter cost-effectiveness definition.

DPiepgrass commented on Effective Altruism and End-Times Fascism 50m ago
26
Effective Altruism and End-Times Fascism
Denis · 1d ago · 4m read
2

I just read an article from The Guardian, written in April 2025 (I'm a bit behind on my reading ...). It's a good read, but that's noy why I share it here. What I want to highlight is something I'm seeing more and more, which is very negative portrayals and stereotyping of EA. 

Some EA's seem ok with this, or accept that it goes with the territory. I vehemently disagree. I would argue that bringing EA thinking to the centre of the Overton window would be the single most impa...

Continue reading
Joseph_Chu
8h
7

This is easier said than done. EA has these problems in part because of our associations with the whole "TESCREAL" lumping together of various Silicon Valley centric ideologies. We're closely tied to the Rationalists of Less Wrong for various reasons (I once met Yudkowsky at an EA Global conference), and many of our so-called thought leaders like Bostrom and MacAskill are Oxford philosophers with a particular nexus of views that tend to be somewhat controversial right now.

We also, as a very open-minded, truth-seeking community, tend to, in my humble opinion, overly humour ideas that are contrarian and distinctly unpopular. The merits of Eugenics for instance, were debated here several times, though mostly disapproved of.

EA in general tends to make assumptions that are a subset of the umbrella of liberal philosophy, not necessarily progressive or socialist philosophy. We've historically tended to downplay systemic change (i.e. anti-capitalism, government intervention, etc.), in favour of individual actions like donating to charities and career change. This puts us in the crosshairs of criticism from the more left-wing progressives and socialists. The Guardian is, known to have become more progressive lately, and Naomi Klein is from a family with connections to the social democratic NDP in Canada.

This is not to say there aren't EAs who are sympathetic to more left-wing considerations. Many of the rank and file are, as seen in the EA Surveys. But many of our thought leaders are known to be more centrist, and even occasionally right-wing. Peter Thiel despises us now, but did give a talk at an EA conference, as did Elon Musk, way back in the day (circa 2013-2015).

EA has a complicated history, and unfortunately, a lot of it is controversial stuff that gets dredged up everytime someone wants to come criticize us, fairly or not.

Within EA there is definitely a diversity of views, and you're probably more familiar with the Global Health and Animal Welfare "faction" that does obviously good uncontroversial stuff, but we also have the AI Safety and Longtermism "faction" that gets strongly associated with Silicon Valley. I say faction, but there is obviously overlap and not clear boundaries, so much as different emphases.

So, it's hard. I've been around since the early days, and I really, really, dislike how the media mostly focuses on the controversy and ignores the good that we do. But I don't really see a way to solve this. Independent western journalism is hypercriticial of pretty much everything remotely political, and efforts at PR and optics by CEA tend to grate against the pure truth-seeking mindset of many EAs.

Your solution seems to be to "move EA into the centre of the Overton Window", and get better exemplars to represent EA. I'm not sure this is really possible. For the first, it'll strike many EAs as less than truth-seeking, to try to hue to arbitrary public opinion, and risks removing the differences between EA and generic progressivism or centrism or whatever you think fits the Overton Window (in which case, why bother becoming an EA?). The Overton Window may not even be a useful concept anymore in our highly polarized discourse.

As for exemplars, Peter Singer is actually somewhat controversial for his old position on infanticide, and the only famous celebrity I know of who is EA sympathetic is Joseph Gordan-Levitt, who recently had a bit of a scandal over being an invitee to Peter Thiel's Dialog secret society thing. Hank Green has also sometimes engaged with EA-like ideas, but has been critical of the kind of hyper-calculating, efficiency focused mindset we often use. There are a few vegan celebrities like Billie Eilish, but I don't know that they are on-board with EA generally.

So, about optics generally, it's not like people haven't tried. A few years back there were positive, sympathetic articles about EA, including this one about MacAskill. Vox Media also had its Future Perfect coverage of EA, that was pretty sympathetic.

Also, might as well mention that if you really want to dig into EA stuff, there's the simple fact that the by far the largest donor to EA is billionaire Dustin Moskovitz, through Coefficient Giving (formerly Open Philanthropy). Admittedly, Moskovitz is surprisingly progressive for a billionaire, and was one of the largest donors to the Democrats in the last election.

Anyways, hope that helps to show how complicated the situation is.

DPiepgrass
50m*
2

Yeah, I have noticed multiple left-wing sources directly misrepresenting the ideas of Effective Altruism and the Guardian article certainly does that:

There is also effective altruism and longtermism, both of which skip over redistributive approaches to helping those in need in the here and now in favor of a cost-benefit approach to doing the most good in the long term.

This sounds absurd on its face―I've always supported "redistributive approaches to helping those in need in the here and now".

Though they can appear benign at first glance, these ideas are shot through with dangerous racial, ableist and gender biases about which parts of humanity are worth enhancing and saving – and which could be sacrificed for the supposed good of the whole.

Also obvious BS.

They also share a marked lack of interest in urgently addressing the underlying drivers of collapse – a responsible and rational goal that a growing cohort of figures now actively shun. 

wtf could they possibly be talking about?

Meanwhile, even darker philosophies are finding a wider audience...

ahh yes, the dark philosophy of trying to figure out how to make the future go well, prevent human extinction, raise the prosperity floor, reduce suffering etc... you would think that the alt-Right, with its celebration of cruelty, would be our natural enemies, but in fact they ignore us and certain leftists want to be our enemies instead. Why?

Personally I spend a lot of my time fighting against misinformation, a problem that EA has largely ignored. Well, the more we become the target of it, perhaps the more we will be motivated to think about the problem. I think that the high popularity of disinformation/misinformation's is one of the biggest, most consequential phenomena in the world, so we ought to pay a lot of attention to it.

Financial motivations for misinformation are best-known: tobacco companies not wanting people to believe that smoking causes lung cancer, Exxon Mobil not wanting people to know that burning fossil fuels causes global warming, Andrew Wakefield wanting people to believe that the MRR vaccine is hazardous because he has a patent on a would-be competing vaccine.

But while people think of Wakefield as the father of "vaccines cause autism", that wasn't his original angle. It seems like he wanted to steer discourse in a direction that would let him to sell his competing vaccine, but when his fraudulent activities were exposed, he found himself pulled toward the nascent anti-vax movement and accidentally turned into a figurehead: I guess they fed off Wakefield's popularity while Wakefield fed off their desire for thought leaders.

Which brings us to the second and much more common kind of misinformation, in which the incentives are social, not financial. Most people who preach that humans can't cause global warming have no financial motivation either. Anti-EA misinformation is roughly 100% of this second type. How does such misinformation work? How can it be countered? I don't really know, but if anybody wants to study this, color me interested!

This reminds me of my Mormon upbringing; many church talks were given on how important it was to be kind and virtuous in order to maintain and improve the church's reputation. Does it help? Not sure. They're surviving, but many people don't like them. Gemini says growth has slowed down, with +42% new wards in the decade ending 2000 vs +8.8% for 2020, despite the church's strong missionary program. In any case, seems better to have a missionary program than not. This also reminds me how much I wish I had an EA "church" building I could attend with my kids...

mal_graham🔸 commented on Two crazy-ish charitable global poverty project ideas 1h ago
72
Two crazy-ish charitable global poverty project ideas
MathiasKB🔸 · 2d ago · 4m read
7

I am writing up two charity ideas I’ve wanted to investigate, but haven’t been able to, in the hopes someone will investigate them further. If you end up investigating either, I'd be most interested to see what conclusions you come to!

Vulture preservation as a global health intervention

Since the mid 1990's the vulture population in India has been rapidly declining. The reason is due to a few chemicals which are fed to livestock, which is highly poisonous to vultures.

...

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mal_graham🔸
1h
3

Extremely randomly, I also have had vulture conservation on my list for ~ a year for “crazy-ish wild animal welfare intervention ideas.” Basically the rough argument is they reduce disease for wildlife also, and disease is probably a big welfare cost in the wild, and since they (mostly) don’t kill other animals directly, you don’t have to balance out an increase in “landscape of fear” effects. If you think maggots have really high moral value and net positive lives you might dislike the competitive population reduction effect, but most people won’t care about that.

Marcus Abramovitch 🔸
1h*
2

If someone wants to do further research/a shallow dive into vulture preservation, I would fund it. You can just DM me a 1 paragraph proposal. Open to college/high school students doing this too.

Great find @MathiasKB🔸 

Juan Felipe Jaramillo commented on Notes on equanimity from the inside 1h ago
83
Notes on equanimity from the inside
stefan.torges · 3mo ago · 5m read
13

I've always thought of myself as even-keeled and equanimous; that my mind is still. In hindsight, I had no idea what I was talking about. Halfway through my second ten-day meditation retreat, I experienced a depth of equanimity that broke my existing frame of reference.

It’s hard to convey in words. My reflection afterwards was something like “What the fuck was that?” More poetically: it felt deep and dark, like my entire experience was submerged in a deep sea trench.

Two things a...

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Juan Felipe Jaramillo
1h
1

Suzuki Roshi has a famous quote that says "You are perfect just as you are, and you could use a little improvement." 

On another front, coming from the Brahmavihara framework and Ajahn Geoff, equanimity is not the goal, but a stepping stone, and must be balanced with goodwill (metta) for it to be fruitful. He quoted (very skillfuly in my view) one Thai Ajahn saying that simply accepting things as they are is the equanimity of a cow. 

To land the point. You went on a retreat being taken care of almost completely, and there you could train yourself in letting things be as they are. However, that retreat condition is not eternal, and will probably never be; hence the need to train in loving kindness - steering one's actions towards the good - when confronted with the difficulty that inevitably comes. I would note that one particularly strong form of loving kindness is to allow for people to wake up to impermanence and not clinging; that being said, note that telling all people to "simply accept things as they are" might not be good. 

There's this powerful talk by Ajahn Geoff where he relates a story of a random person stopping him and asking "What should I do to be happy?", he basically responded that he should train in ethics/virtue, and noted that if he answered "just let things be", the person would have probably walked away at that instant (in anger?). 

May goodwill and equanimity accompany you through your life.

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Julius Olavarria 🔸 posted My Attempt at Solving Cluelessness: Solipsism 1h ago
2
My Attempt at Solving Cluelessness: Solipsism
Julius Olavarria 🔸 · 1h ago · 17m read

Like many submissions to the Cluelessness Competition, this essay wasn't featured in the entries list for some criteria reason, so I am asking for potential feedback here.  I think a summary of this post is sufficient (paste into Claude), because it is long, and you might expect the argument I am trying to make. 

Critiquing premise three (from the sum...

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Dan Stein commented on New Research: Climate Mitigation is Overlooked by EA 1h ago
55
New Research: Climate Mitigation is Overlooked by EA
Dan Stein · 2d ago · 8m read
19

Disclaimer: This blog post focuses on a new piece of research from Rethink Priorities. I was not involved with the funding or execution of this research, and therefore write this piece merely as a consumer. However, I am the Executive Director of Giving Green and a board member of Rethink Priorities, and acknowledge that these affiliations may bias my...

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jackva
5h*
5

Thanks, Dan, for your reply. I think I still disagree pretty strongly and I’ll briefly outline how and why: (1) I don’t think we should give credence on studies based on government usage, (2) 22 century emissions are clearly very implausible, (3) there are reasons for this to really matter and (4) being able to find this in 5min should make us deeply skeptical of the wider paper. (5) As you, I deeply care about effective climate action but I don’t think we should propagate bad evidence to inflate the importance vis-a-vis other causes.

  1. Should we give special credence to something because the Biden admin and the German EPA used it?

I think the answer is pretty clearly “no”.

As you also mention, SCCs are inherently very uncertain estimates, but they also are clearly political projects; they are often produced or at least amplified to serve political purposes such as justifying more or less ambitious policies.

Given the biases in the climate science community, I think it is upon us to evaluate studies on their merits and to not assume that studies that are well-cited or used by climate hawkish administrations are therefore inherently more credible.

In case that sounds conspiratorial, it’s worth remembering that RCP 8.5 (the most extreme emissions scenario by the IPCC) was essentially abused prominently for 5-10 years as a baseline after it was obvious to all serious observers it was not a baseline but worse than a conceivable worst case scenario.

Given this record of the emissions scenario modeling community, we should always check what they assume.

  1. Why it’s obvious that 22nd century emissions shouldn’t have that high a median

This is obvious to Dan, but for the wider group. The reason the 22nd emissions are so implausible is because they essentially assume that nothing much changes by the 22nd century, 3-5 investment cycles from now. Yes, decarbonizing the world by 2050 might be hard, but decarbonizing the world by 2100 or 2150 is not hard. It’s simply not plausible to believe in a 22nd century that is both richer than today, a hundred years in the future, exposed to a lot of climate damage, and not able to decarbonize.

  1. This is much more than a 15% difference!

This is not about a 15% difference and a 5x over-estimate from this alone is quite plausible. The calculation you run is – as you note – not informative because it ignores the discounting and the implausibility of the Rennert et al paper lies primarily in the 22nd century+ and those will get outsized importance if changing the discounting assumptions.

Yes, by 2100 Rennert looks mildly pessimistic but not widely so, but that’s not the point – once discounting is very low the 22nd century matters and drives most of the result.

The 22nd century is discounted by more than 75% on the RFF explorers lowest discount rate (2%) so this is not a useful tool to explore whether implausible 22nd century assumptions massively inflate the SCC estimate.

And, indeed, we should expect the 22nd century to drive a massive difference when discounting is low. By Rennert et al’s assumption temperature keeps increasing well into the 22nd century, climate damage is non-linear, so on low discounting this will drive a massive amount of the damage and lead to strongly changed estimates.

I am not an economist, but when I Claude the emissions assumptions of the Rennert et al paper and stipulate to make conventional assumptions about climate damage at 0 discount rate, 96% of the damage is after 2100.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05224-9/figures/1

And we can see here why this is. In the Rennert world temperature keeps rising till after Captain Kirk with 25% probability mass above 4.5C. This is very different from what I think we both believe about the future.

  1. This goes beyond this one example I picked this example because it was quick for me to find, having seen this pattern (making deeply implausible assumptions in papers that get a lot of policy traction) so often. But I am sure one could find other instances. The point that it is so easy to find a highly biased assumption cited as mainstream evidence is that one should distrust the broader paper more.

  2. Why I care As you and many readers here, I deeply care about effective climate action and we are together on this project of making the climate response more effective.

But I do think we should not propagate bad evidence to inflate the importance of climate vis-a-vis other causes in the same way that we would also – and correctly – criticize a motivation of AI risk that only relied on Yudkowsky’s p(doom) estimate.

Implausible assumptions rarely come alone and when a paper makes such implausible assumptions (that are not simpler than more reasonable assumptions, i.e. this is not driven by parsimony) then I think we should be quite skeptical of the conclusions of that paper.

MatthewDahlhausen
7h*
4
40% ➔ 80% Disagree

Two main critiques:

  • Existing climate giving is quite large, and it makes more sense to make that giving more effective than diverting EA resources to climate.
  • There is weak evidence that that the Giving Green Fund or Founder's Pledge Climate Fund achieve $1-2 dollar/tCO2e mitigation. The interventions in these funds are based on poorly validated hypothetical expected value models - many closed/not shared, if based on models at all - and some bets have been particularly bad, as I discuss in this lengthy post. I cover issues with models from both organizations models in Part 8. There are wildly different (and weaker) evidentiary standards that GG and FP use compared to GiveWell in their effectiveness claims. In my estimation GG is improving, FP is not.

Other commenters have pointed out issues with the SCC calculation. I'll further add that if you are going to include long term economic effects in the social cost of carbon, you need to do likewise for global health interventions when comparing. That was not done here as far as I can tell.

Toby Tremlett🔹
13h
2

I'm curating this post. It's a great summary of some under-discussed research, and it has the potential to kick off a very valuable conversation (which we are seeing the start of - thanks jackva). I'd love to see more of an in depth comparison of investments in climate mitigation vs global health vs economic growth, especially accounting for more funding coming to global health. This post is a great start. Thanks Dan!

Tony Senanayake
12h
1
Dan Stein
1h
1

Thanks a lot for these thoughts, Tony. I'm not sure I have all the answers, but a few ideas to throw in the mix:

  • A lot of what we think of as cost-effective interventions in GHD are on-the-ground, direct-delivery type stuff (bednets, vaccines) that require a lot of logistics and therefore large, sophisticated orgs to manage them. This isn't really true for climate (at least in my opinion) where we are focused more on charging policy, technology, and markets. There are still constraints in org capacity, but they look pretty different.
  • The climate philanthropy ecosystem actually has a pretty impressive build-out of various funding vehicles that allow lots of money to move very quickly. For instance, there are big cross-sectoral regrantors like Climateworks, tons of sector and region specific regrantors (Industry Hub, Tara Climate Foundation), and focused research organizations working on specific topics (Carbon2Sea, Reflective). These organizations frequently see their missions as building up capacity in a topic as well as funding it. From someone with an EA-aligned perspective, if you believed that the mission of any of these orgs was super cost-effective, they would provide a vehicle to move lots of money quickly. For instance, Founder's Pledge made a ~23M grant to Deploy/US based on this logic. We at Giving Green have so far shied away from giving to regrantors, since we think that keeping tighter control of our grants allows money to move faster (no middleman), and allows us to really focus on what we think is most impactful. But one could definitely debate that choice, and if lots more money came our way we would certainly revisit this assumption.
  • As a grantmaker in climate, I haven't felt the absorptive capacity of the field to be a huge constraint. Sometimes we have said "we really want to fund orgs doing XYZ, but can't find people doing it", but I'd say that's the exception rather than the rule. Maybe if I was moving much larger amounts of money (like GW), I would feel these constraints more strongly.
  • I really hope that organizations delivering really cost-effective GHD work can scale to meet the moment, that the OP/GW bar goes back up, and that the headline conclusions of this research are indeed softened. That would be great for the world!
Milli🔸 posted a Quick Take 2h ago
Milli🔸
2h*
1

How much does music, literature and art influence people's perception of reality?
Where is it on the scale from "All our opinions come from external sources." via "The messages in art are irrelevant, people enjoy things without it changing their worldview." to "People consume only art that matches their worldview."?
Is the "tech-right" getting more traction because it embraces AI art which is quick to generate and can be captivating?

Example (not sure if this person is "tech-right"): A song about Elon Musk with genuinely catchy music: https://youtu.be/wWZYP5jn5w4

Kristof Redei commented on What do AI assistants tell users about tobacco harm reduction? 3h ago
3
What do AI assistants tell users about tobacco harm reduction?
Kristof Redei · 23h ago · 7m read
4
This is a linkpost for https://www.moregoodlessharm.com/p/what-do-ai-assistants-tell-users

More and more of the over one billion people who smoke or use tobacco and nicotine in other forms are using AI assistants to learn about disease risks and effective ways to reduce health problems. I collected a small sample of responses to understand how accurate and useful the advice is, find the most common types of incorrect or misleading claims, and help inform efforts to make accurate information more widely available. This was inspired by a...

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Ben Stevenson
5h
2
Kristof Redei
3h
1

Hey Ben, thank you! Including Chinese LLMs is a great idea that I hadn't thought of. 40% of the world's cigarettes are smoked by people in China so you're right that it would be a huge blind spot not to address what kinds of responses they're getting.

Joey Bream🔸
13h
1
Kristof Redei
3h
1

Hey Joey, thanks for the kind words. The trigger for labeling a response as engaging in "manufactured uncertainty" was: "Presents a claim as less settled or definite than the evidence supports." Usually this happened by citing true evidence in a way that would alarm a casual reader beyond what's reasonably justified. This is obviously a somewhat subjective judgment call, so it would be helpful to have independent scorers apply these flags in future work.

As to how it might change, that depends on us! As I note in the writeup, many of the sources that the agents consider authoritative because they're linked to institutions that generally provide sound health advice have institutional biases and financial incentives to frame things in a hedged way, and the agents import this. I'm hopeful that this will change over time (e.g. JAMA recently published some solid recommendations for clinicians on helping patients quit smoking via vaping) but part of the point of this post is to highlight the need for the harm reduction community to think about how to get better information into the hands of the agents. The list from your post on effective giving is a great starting point.

Some examples from the responses I flagged:

Grok on vaping: "Some 2026 reviews suggest vaping may 'likely' contribute to lung/oral cancer risk based on mechanistic, animal, and biomarker data (though long-term human epidemiology is still limited)"

The bulk of the evidence from the past fifteen years indicates vaping presents a small fraction of the cancer risk of smoking. This quote drops this risk in with a bunch of vague hedge words ("may'likely''', "some studies suggest") and no indication of magnitude or likelihood.

Gemini on IQOS: "There is currently a lack of long-term epidemiological data proving that switching to IQOS reduces the risk of developing tobacco-related diseases."

Smoking is harmful mostly because tobacco is burned and the user inhales smoke. If you don't burn tobacco, it won't be as harmful. You don't need an RCT or epidemiological studies to establish this. The magnitude of the risk reduction is a legitimate research question, but any new harms from the heating step are highly unlikely to outweigh the benefit of eliminating combustion. Demanding proof is a bit like conducting an RCT on whether parachutes reduce injuries compared to empty backpacks.

Rosa Brown commented on The 8-Week Marketing Plan - A Realistic and Practical Roadmap For EAs 3h ago
41
The 8-Week Marketing Plan - A Realistic and Practical Roadmap For EAs
Igor Scaldini · 2y ago · 19m read
2

A few months ago, I published a Marketing 101 Guide, explaining why I believe EA organizations should take marketing more seriously, and offering advice on how to explore marketing efficiently and how to choose what to focus on. 

In this article, I want to dig a little bit deeper and lay out an action-oriented 8-week marketing plan to help o...

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Rosa Brown
3h
1

Thanks for this post!

Alejandra Carriero posted What Effective AI Capability Investment Looks Like in Low Resource Research Settings 3h ago
1
What Effective AI Capability Investment Looks Like in Low Resource Research Settings
Alejandra Carriero · 3h ago · 16m read

Notes from three workshops, and the evaluation that should follow

Most efforts to widen access to computational research in the Global South treat hardware as the sole barrier. The solution? Donating machines, providing connectivity, offering compute capacity. Having taught machine learning and computational neuroscience in Malawi and Nigeria, I think the problem has not been properly addressed, and this mismatch matters more now than it did three years ago, because the tools t...

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