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I just sent out the Forum digest and I thought there was a higher number of underrated (and slightly unusual) posts this week, so I'm re-sharing some of them here: * What does starvation feel like? by @Elijah Whipple * Detection of Asymptomatically Spreading Pathogens by @Jeff Kaufman (I think the slide-show format works really well) * The anti-clickbait titled Next-gen LLINs with chlorfenapyr by @Scott Smith, which analyses the effect of using chlorfenapyr rather than pyrethroid as an insecticide in bednets. This reduces the effect of insecticide-resistance
Hi, Pepijn here, co-founder of the Tien Procent Club (Dutch org that promotes effective giving) and a highly irregular reader of this forum. Here's my quick take:  I think there's an opportunity to make much better EA videos simply by interviewing founders of the most effective non-profits. The medium is the message, and video lends itself perfectly for conveying emotions. It feels like there's a lot of room left to produce entertaining, exciting and high information density videos on effective non-profits. Explanation: I know there are some explainers about EA concepts out there but their main problem is that they're cerebral and often quite abstract.  Compare this to how moving, concrete and personal s3 movies are. Check this EA-adjacent episode about Make Sunsets, who are trialling ultra cheap atmospheric sulphur dioxide insertion and you'll see what I mean. All s3 videos are about deeptech startups and their passionate, quirky, high energy founders. These movies are made (at least the first episodes) by a single person, Jason Carman.  They excel in: 1) bringing across the infectious energy of startup founders 2) showcasing ideas and pathways that make the future something to be excited about 3) being entertaining because of high information and novel concepts density -- check this one with Casey Handmer. No need to reinvent the wheel here. A single talented individual could start doing this, simply copying and slightly modifying the s3 style.
After following the Ukraine war closely for almost three years, I naturally also watch China's potential for military expansionism. Whereas past leaders of China talked about "forceful if necessary" reunification with Taiwan, Xi Jinping seems like a much more aggressive person, one who would actually do it―especially since the U.S. is frankly showing so much weakness in Ukraine. I know this isn't how EAs are used to thinking, but you have to start from the way dictators think. Xi, much like Putin, seems to idolize the excesses of his country's communist past, and is a conservative gambler: that is, he will take a gamble if the odds seem enough in his favor. Putin badly miscomputed his odds in Ukraine, but Russia's GDP and population were 1.843 trillion and 145 million, versus 17.8 trillion and 1.4 billion for China. At the same time, Taiwan is much less populous than Ukraine and its would-be defenders in the USA/EU/Japan are not as strong naval powers as China (yet would have to operate over a longer range). Last but not least, China is the factory of the world―if they should decide they want to do world domination military-style, they can probably do that fairly well while simultaneously selling us vital goods at suddenly-inflated prices. So when I hear China ramped up nuclear weapon production, I immediately think of it as a nod toward Taiwan. If we don't want an invasion of Taiwan, what do we do? Liberals have a habit of magical thinking in military matters, talking of diplomacy, complaining about U.S. "war mongers", and running protests with "No Nukes" signs. But the invasion of Taiwan has nothing to do with the U.S.; Xi simply *wants* Taiwan and has the power to take it. If he makes that decision, no words can stop him. So the Free World has no role to play here other than (1) to deter and (2) to optionally help out Taiwan if Xi invades anyway. Not all deterrents are military, of course; China and USA will surely do huge economic damage to each other if China
What is your AI Capabilities Red Line Personal Statement? It should read something like "when AI can do X in Y way, then I think we should be extremely worried / advocate for a Pause*".  I think it would be valuable if people started doing this; we can't feel when we're on an exponential, so its likely we will have powerful AI creep up on us. @Greg_Colbourn just posted this and I have an intuition that people are going to read it and say "while it can do Y it still can't do X" *in the case you think a Pause is ever optimal.
I can't seem to find much EA discussion about [genetic modification to chickens to lessen suffering]. I think this naively seems like a promising area to me. I imagine others have investigated and decided against further work, I'm curious why.