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tlevin
2d
3
I think some of the AI safety policy community has over-indexed on the visual model of the "Overton Window" and under-indexed on alternatives like the "ratchet effect," "poisoning the well," "clown attacks," and other models where proposing radical changes can make you, your allies, and your ideas look unreasonable. I'm not familiar with a lot of systematic empirical evidence on either side, but it seems to me like the more effective actors in the DC establishment overall are much more in the habit of looking for small wins that are both good in themselves and shrink the size of the ask for their ideal policy than of pushing for their ideal vision and then making concessions. Possibly an ideal ecosystem has both strategies, but it seems possible that at least some versions of "Overton Window-moving" strategies executed in practice have larger negative effects via associating their "side" with unreasonable-sounding ideas in the minds of very bandwidth-constrained policymakers, who strongly lean on signals of credibility and consensus when quickly evaluating policy options, than the positive effects of increasing the odds of ideal policy and improving the framing for non-ideal but pretty good policies. In theory, the Overton Window model is just a description of what ideas are taken seriously, so it can indeed accommodate backfire effects where you argue for an idea "outside the window" and this actually makes the window narrower. But I think the visual imagery of "windows" actually struggles to accommodate this -- when was the last time you tried to open a window and accidentally closed it instead? -- and as a result, people who rely on this model are more likely to underrate these kinds of consequences. Would be interested in empirical evidence on this question (ideally actual studies from psych, political science, sociology, econ, etc literatures, rather than specific case studies due to reference class tennis type issues).
Trump recently said in an interview (https://time.com/6972973/biden-trump-bird-flu-covid/) that he would seek to disband the White House office for pandemic preparedness. Given that he usually doesn't give specifics on his policy positions, this seems like something he is particularly interested in. I know politics is discouraged on the EA forum, but I thought I would post this to say: EA should really be preparing for a Trump presidency. He's up in the polls and IMO has a >50% chance of winning the election. Right now politicians seem relatively receptive to EA ideas, this may change under a Trump administration.
Excerpt from the most recent update from the ALERT team:   Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1: What a week! The news, data, and analyses are coming in fast and furious. Overall, ALERT team members feel that the risk of an H5N1 pandemic emerging over the coming decade is increasing. Team members estimate that the chance that the WHO will declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) within 1 year from now because of an H5N1 virus, in whole or in part, is 0.9% (range 0.5%-1.3%). The team sees the chance going up substantially over the next decade, with the 5-year chance at 13% (range 10%-15%) and the 10-year chance increasing to 25% (range 20%-30%).   their estimated 10 year risk is a lot higher than I would have anticipated.
Is EA as a bait and switch a compelling argument for it being bad? I don't really think so 1. There are a wide variety of baits and switches, from what I'd call misleading to some pretty normal activities - is it a bait and switch when churches don't discuss their most controversial beliefs at a "bring your friends" service? What about wearing nice clothes to a first date? [1] 2. EA is a big movement composed of different groups[2]. Many describe it differently. 3. EA has done so much global health stuff I am not sure it can be described as a bait and switch. eg https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ip7nXs7l-8sahT6ehvk2pBrlQ6Umy5IMPYStO3taaoc/edit#gid=9418963 4. EA is way more transparent than any comparable movement. If it is a bait and switch then it does so much more to make clear where the money goes eg (https://openbook.fyi/). On the other hand: 1. I do sometimes see people describing EA too favourably or pushing an inaccurate line.   I think that transparency comes with a feature of allowing anyone to come and say "what's going on there" and that can be very beneficial at avoiding error but also bad criticism can be too cheap.  Overall I don't find this line that compelling. And that parts that are seem largely in the past when EA was smaller (when perhaps it mattered less). Now that EA is big, it's pretty clear that it cares about many different things.  Seems fine.  1. ^ @Richard Y Chappell created the analogy.  2. ^ @Sean_o_h argues that here. 
Quick poll [✅ / ❌]: Do you feel like you don't have a good grasp of Shapley values, despite wanting to?  (Context for after voting: I'm trying to figure out if more explainers of this would be helpful. I still feel confused about some of its implications, despite having spent significant time trying to understand it)

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About a week ago, Spencer Greenberg and I were debating what proportion of Effective Altruists believe enlightenment is real. Since he has a large audience on X, we thought a poll would be a good way to increase our confidence in our predictions

Before I share my commentary...

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I agree that it's surprising this doesn't receive more attention in EA. I imagine a big part of it is it would get a lot of pushback from the more rationalist EAs who feel like it's too 'woo'/new age-y and find the stigma/connotations/vibes around it offputting. It does get a fair bit of attention on Twitter/X though- you might be interested in the discussion around this post.

I do think there would be some appetite in the community to fund research related to this, but am not sure it would appeal to the usual 'big funders'.

Trump recently said in an interview (https://time.com/6972973/biden-trump-bird-flu-covid/) that he would seek to disband the White House office for pandemic preparedness. Given that he usually doesn't give specifics on his policy positions, this seems like something he ...

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I'd class those comments as mostly a disagreement around ends . The emphasis on not getting the credit from his own support base and Republicans not wanting to talk about it are the most revealing. A sizeable fraction of his most committed support base are radically antivax to the point there was audible booing at his own rally when he recommended they got the vaccine, even after he'd very carefully worded it in terms of their "freedoms". It's less a narrow disagreement about a specific layer of Biden bureaucracy and more a recognition that his base sees less government involvement in healthcare and less reaction to future pandemics and in some cases even rejection of evidence based medicine as valuable ends. And whilst he clearly doesn't reject evidence-based medicine himself, above all Trump loves adulation from that fanbase.

Either way, his position is quite different from those EAs who see pandemic preparedness as an extremely important permanent priority rather than a reactive thing..

Bella commented on How do you make EA friends? 15m ago
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EA is very important to me. I’ve been EtG for 5 years and I spend many hours per week consuming EA content. However, I have zero EA friends (I just have some acquaintances).

(I don't live near a major EA hub. I've attended a few meetups but haven't really connected with ...

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Answer by BellaMay 02, 20242
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0

I made a lot of my early friends in EA through my local group. I'm guessing you don't have one since you said you're not in an EA hub (?) but there's always EA Anywhere.

You could also organise an online discussion group yourself — a couple of my closest friends today were people I met because I started an online discussion group on animal welfare during the pandemic. We would discuss an article or paper on animal advocacy for like an hour in the evening, and then some people would stay and chat all evening. It was really nice :)

2
defun
2h
A bit about me in case someone wants to connect 👋👋 I’m a SWE with 5 yoe working in early-stage startups. I’m quite ambitious about EA and I’m currently applying to Charity Entrepreneurship. Some things I like: sports, concerts, startups, Twitter, Dwarkesh (huge fan), Derek Guy, walkable and cyclable cities, pedestrian streets, lentil dahl.
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You'll get a weekly email with the best posts from the past week. The Forum team selects the posts to feature based on personal preference and Forum popularity, and also adds some announcements and a classic post.

A crucial consideration in assessing the risks of advanced AI is the moral value we place on "unaligned" AIs—systems that do not share human preferences—which could emerge if we fail to make enough progress on technical alignment.

In this post I'll consider three potential...

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2
Rohin Shah
8h
... This seems to be saying that because we are aligning AI, they will be more utilitarian. But I thought we were discussing unaligned AI? I agree that the fact we are aligning AI should make one more optimistic. Could you define what you mean by "unaligned AI"? It seems quite plausible that I will agree with your position, and think it amounts to something like "we were pretty successful with alignment". I agree with theses like "it tentatively appears that the normative value of alignment work is very uncertain, and plausibly approximately neutral, from a total utilitarian perspective", and would go further and say that alignment work is plausibly negative from a total utilitarian perspective. I disagree with the implied theses in statements like "I'm not very sympathetic to pausing or slowing down AI as a policy proposal." If you wrote a post that just said "look, we're super uncertain about things, here's your reminder that there are worlds in which alignment work is negative", I'd be on board with it. But it feels like a motte-and-bailey to write a post that is clearly trying to cause the reader to feel a particular way about some policy, and then retreat to "well my main thesis was very weak and unobjectionable". Some more minor comments: Well, I can believe it's weak in some absolute sense. My claim is that it's much stronger than all of the arguments you make put together. This is a pretty good example of something I'd call different! You even use the adjective "inhumanly"! To the extent your argument is that this is strong evidence that the AIs will continue to be altruistic and kind, I think I disagree, though I've now learned that you are imagining lots of alignment work happening when making the unaligned AIs, so maybe I'd agree depending on the specific scenario you're imagining. Sorry, I was being sloppy there. My actual claim is that your arguments either: * Don't seem to bear on the question of whether AIs are more utilitarian than humans,

I disagree with the implied theses in statements like "I'm not very sympathetic to pausing or slowing down AI as a policy proposal."

This is my own opinion, not the main thesis. It seems perfectly fine to say, "The reasons to believe X are weak, in my opinion, so I'm not strongly swayed by arguments that we need to do Y because of X". More importantly, you're completely overlooking my arguments in section 3, which were absolutely critical to forming my opinion here. And you omitted the beginning of that sentence in which I simply stated "This is a big reaso... (read more)

2
Matthew_Barnett
1h
Just a quick reply (I might reply more in-depth later but this is possibly the most important point): In my post I talked about the "default" alternative to doing lots of alignment research. Do you think that if AI alignment researchers quit tomorrow, engineers would stop doing RLHF etc. to their models? That they wouldn't train their AIs to exhibit human-like behaviors, or to be human-compatible? It's possible my language was misleading by giving an image of what unaligned AI looks like that isn't actually a realistic "default" in any scenario. But when I talk about unaligned AI, I'm simply talking about AI that doesn't share the preferences of humans (either its creator or the user). Crucially, humans are routinely misaligned in this sense. For example, employees don't share the exact preferences of their employer (otherwise they'd have no need for a significant wage). Yet employees are still typically docile, human-compatible, and assimilated to the overall culture. This is largely the picture I think we should imagine when we think about the "default" unaligned alternative, rather than imaging that humans will create something far more alien, far less docile, and therefore something with far less economic value. (As an aside, I thought this distinction wasn't worth making because I thought most readers would have already strongly internalized the idea that RLHF isn't "real alignment work". I suspect I was mistaken, and probably confused a ton of people.)

Manifund is a philanthropic startup that runs a website and programs to fund awesome projects. From January to now, we wrapped up 3 different programs for impact certificates (aka venture-style funding for charity projects): ACX Grants, Manifold Community Fund, and the ...

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Executive summary: Manifund ran several impact certificate programs in Q1 2023 with mixed results, and is exploring new directions like regranting and prize challenges to find product-market fit for funding awesome projects.

Key points:

  1. Manifund ran impact certificate programs for ACX Grants, the Manifold Community Fund, and a Chinatalk essay competition in Q1.
  2. The ACX Grants impact market had lower investor participation than hoped, but a micro-regranting program engaging individual donors was successful.
  3. The Manifold Community Fund tested some impact market
... (read more)

Welcome to the AI Safety Newsletter by the Center for AI Safety. We discuss developments in AI and AI safety. No technical background required.

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AI Labs Fail to Uphold Safety Commitments to UK AI Safety Institute

In November, leading AI labs committed to sharing their models before deployment to be tested by the UK AI Safety Institute. But reporting from Politico shows that these commitments have fallen through. 

OpenAI, Anthropic, and Meta have all failed to share their models with the UK AISI before deployment. Only Google DeepMind, headquartered in London, has given pre-deployment access to UK AISI. 

Anthropic released the most powerful publicly available language model, Claude 3, without any window for pre-release testing by the UK AISI. When asked for comment, Anthropic co-founder Jack...

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The UK government’s public consultation for their proposed animal welfare labelling scheme[1] closes on the 7th of May. I.e. a week away. If you’re in the UK and care about animal welfare, I think you should probably submit an answer to it. If you don't care about ...

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1
Constance Li
2h
Hi Toby, thank you so much for writing a comprehensive review for this time sensitive opportunity. For anyone interested in a different version of the suggested answers that Ben and Haven made that is more aimed at encouraging the adoption of on-farm monitoring systems in order to lay the groundwork for AI analysis for welfare metrics, please see this guide that I just wrote. 

Thanks for letting me know about Ben and Haven's doc!

This is a sensationalist video put out by an influential YouTuber who generally creates good science videos but in this case does not do the work of the FHI justice nor its substantial and pioneering achievements. To sweep the rug from under the feet of such crucial researchers...

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2
Jason
3h
I believe Deborah edited the title, and we can't blame voters for voting on the title as it stood at the time of their vote. I didn't vote, but I think it's reasonable to expect someone posting a link to say something of moderate substance about why they think it might be of value to the reader. I don't think "this is bad criticism of FHI" is enough. Mentioning that this person has a wide audience of 1.25MM would be just enough, while summarizing the critique would be better.
2
James Herbert
2h
Yeah, the old title was enough for me because I'd heard of Sabine, but I think your advice to have a title that provides more context is good, e.g., "Prominent YouTuber with millions of subscribers posts extensive critique of FHI". I agree it's reasonable to expect someone who is posting a link to say something about its relevance.  However, I don't think it's reasonable to downvote without first checking the relevancy if that checking can be done in seconds (as was the case here). 

There should be a moderate bar for linkposting, as it takes up one of the frontpage slots. People may be downvoting because they see a link post with no body text as a low-effort post, and thus less likely to reflect consideration of the bar.

I was interviewed in yesterday’s 80,000 hours podcast: Dean Spears on why babies are born small in Uttar Pradesh, and how to save their lives. As I say in the podcast, there’s good evidence that this is a cost-effective way to save lives. Many peer-reviewed articles show that Kangaroo Mother Care is effective. The 80k link has many further links to the articles and data behind the podcast. You can see GiveWell’s write up of their support for our project at this link.

This partnership with a large government medical college is able to reach many babies. And with more funding, we could achieve more. Anyone can support this project by donating, at riceinstitute.org, to a 501(c)3 public charity.

If you have any questions, please feel free to ask below!

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