Many thanks to Constance Li, Rachel Mason, Ronen Bar, Sam Tucker-Davis, and Yip Fai Tse for providing valuable feedback. This post does not necessarily reflect the views of my employer.
Artificial General Intelligence (basically, โAI that is as good as, or better than, humans at most intellectual tasksโ) seems increasingly likely to be developed in the next 5-10 years. As others have written, this has major implications for EA priorities, including animal advocacy, but itโs hard to know how this should shape our strategy. This post sets out a few starting points and Iโm really interested in hearing othersโ ideas, even if theyโre very uncertain and half-baked.
Is AGI coming in the next 5-10 years?
This is very well covered elsewhere but basically it looks increasingly likely, e.g.:
* The Metaculus and Manifold forecasting platforms predict weโll see AGI in 2030 and 2031, respectively.
* The heads of Anthropic and OpenAI think weโll see it by 2027 and 2035, respectively.
* A 2024 survey of AI researchers put a 50% chance of AGI by 2047, but this is 13 years earlier than predicted in the 2023 version of the survey.
* These predictions seem feasible given the explosive rate of change weโve been seeing in computing power available to models, algorithmic efficiencies, and actual model performance (e.g., look at how far Large Language Models and AI image generators have come just in the last three years).
* Based on this, organisations (both new ones, like Forethought, and existing ones, like 80,000 Hours) are taking the prospect of near-term AGI increasingly seriously.
What could AGI mean for animals?
AGIโs implications for animals depend heavily on who controls the AGI models. For example:
* AGI might be controlled by a handful of AI companies and/or governments, either in alliance or in competition.
* For example, maybe two government-owned companies separately develop AGI then restrict others from developing it.
* These actorsโ use of AGI might be dr
Is there any online aggregator for short term volunteering opportunities with EA-affiliated orgs?
Anecdotally I've seen a lot of interest in volunteering among the EAs in my area, but a quick search for volunteering opportunities online only shows the more traditional "staff a soup kitchen" or "do phone banking" style opportunities. While certainly these are good things, it seems against the ethos of doing the most good with limited resources. Many of the EAs near me are professionals with expertise in high-demand / low-supply skill sets, and it seems like there ought to be a low-friction way for them to use their competitive advantages towards direct-impact work.
To make things concrete I'm imagining a site like Fiverr with tasks like "help us analyze the data from this study" or "design marketing materials" or "copyedit this communications letter". I imagine all tasks would be relatively small in scope (1-15 hours of work) and self-contained (able to be comprehensively understood by someone with relevant skills with <30 minutes of explanation). Perhaps there could be something on the site where you can sort opportunities by expected impact / cause area / skills required / etc.
Does anything like this already exist?